By Lili Bayer
It has been a difficult week for Russia’s strategists. The view from Moscow is full of new challenges arising on all of Russia’s most sensitive borders. The Kremlin faces hard questions from the south in Turkey, the Black Sea and Syria; to the west in Belarus and Ukraine; and next door in Central Asia.
The most urgent question for Russia is whether Turkey will move into northern Syria, and if so, how many miles Ankara would be willing to advance into Syrian territory. At Geopolitical Futures, we have outlined that despite the human tragedy of this week’s bombings in Turkey, the attacks themselves will not impact Turkey’s decision-making. Turkey’s goal is regime change in Syria, as well as preventing the rise of a contiguous powerful Kurdish entity south of the Turkish border. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the conflict Ankara has hesitated to send troops, a move that would cost Turkey significant resources and embroil the country in a quagmire.....
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