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De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manufacturing. Show all posts

Thursday, June 29, 2023

The US Manufacturing Recession Deepens – Swamponomics

Manufacturing in a recession, inflation pain in the UK, and the coming global CBDC.

President Joe Biden has repeatedly touted that US manufacturing is strong as hell. The White House claims the sector has created 800,000 new jobs, companies are reshoring, and taxpayers are subsidizing the construction of new facilities. Liberty Nation has disputed some of the numbers presented by the administration. But what cannot be contested is that the industry is in a recession, and the latest data suggest the situation is deteriorating for what is supposed to be the bread and butter of the president’s Build Back Better agenda.

The US Manufacturing Recession

What Other Charges Could Hunter Face?

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 46.3 in June, down from 48.4 in May. This was also below the consensus estimate of 48.5 and represented the seventh contraction over the last eight months. Remember, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, a gauge of where the sector is heading, also slid to 46.9, the seventh straight monthly contraction. Other crucial regional central bank manufacturing metrics weakened in the past month: the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index slumped to -10, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index eased to -13.7, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing clocked in at -26.5.

This comes as the manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs in the last couple of months.

Do these numbers support the broader recession case? Not exactly. Manufacturing accounts for a smaller percentage of the overall economy (11%), so any sharp downturn is likely to impact the US less than other industries. Still, it does present an indictment on Bidenomics since the administration has spent hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars on domestic manufacturing with little to show.

Keep Panicking and Raise Rates

Can Britons keep calm and carry on? Hardly. Economic conditions are brutal across the pond, and it does not appear to be improving at all.

The annual inflation rate was stuck at 8.7% in May, higher than the market forecast of 8.4%. The core inflation rate, which strips the volatile energy and food components, surged to 7.1% year-over-year in May, up from 6.8% and above economists’ expectations. This forced the Bank of England (BoE) to pull the trigger on a 50-basis-point rate hike at the June policy meeting to 5%. Because of how high inflation is in the UK, investors anticipate that the benchmark interest rate will top 6%. But will this be enough? Not according to Andrew Bailey, the BoE chief.

Bailey had the temerity to tell Sky News on June 22 that Brits are to blame for rampant price inflation, urging the public to stop asking for wage hikes:

“We’ve got to get, and we will get inflation back to its target. To do that, I have to be clear – and we expect inflation to come down this year – to do that, we cannot continue to have the current level of wage increases. And we can’t have companies seeking to rebuild profit margins which means prices continue to go up at their current rates. But what I would say to people is we expect inflation to come down, and it is important then that price setting and wage setting reflects that. Because the current levels, I’ll be absolutely honest, are unsustainable.”

Of course, it is easy for a civil servant making $600,000 a year to make these demands. That said, he believes low- and middle-income folks are at fault for trying to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table. What about the central bank running the printing presses in 2020 and slashing interest rates to all-time lows? It is astounding that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounds more reasonable than his British counterpart.

A Global CBDC Coming?

Countries worldwide are working on initiatives to digitize their currencies. But if the entire planet embraces central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), why can’t an international digital currency be created? International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva essentially made this case during a recent presentation, revealing that the organization is “working hard on the concept of a global CBDC platform.” She stated in her remarks: “If we are to be successful, CBDCs could not be fragmented national propositions. To have transactions more efficient and fairer, we need systems that connect countries. In other words, we need interoperability.” Georgieva’s remarks are not exactly surprising, as a global CBDC is an endgame for the globalists.

Read More From Andrew Moran

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

A Peek Under the Hood: Manufactures Trade

 By Melissa Taylor and Peter Zeihan on June 2, 2020 @ Zeihan on Geopolitics

We all know the United States imports a huge volume of finished manufactured goods from the wider world, with China being the largest source. What is less understood is the far larger volume of goods the Americans manufacture at home. Of the roughly $1.6 trillion output of value-added American manufacturing, less than one-fifth of the intermediate components are sourced abroad, with roughly half of the total originating in America’s NAFTA partners.

Chinese components obviously play a role, but even here their contribution is via sales to the United States rather than third parties. In other words, the US takes those imports and builds the final product. You can see that in the data below: American use of Chinese parts is roughly triple that of their combined presence in Canadian and Mexican manufacturing.

 https://mcusercontent.com/de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9/images/04224792-0794-4c04-b114-a1af7f8e1bbc.jpg

Such centrality bodes well for the NAFTA system as companies look for ways to reshore manufacturing operations. While there are many manufacturing supply chains that will need to find alternate suppliers and workarounds, China’s limited presence in the intermediate goods trade suggests such alternates and workarounds will be manageable for the system as a whole. From the point of view of American capital, workers, firms and communities, this is a welcome piece of good news.

The real problem moving forward will be what can go wrong with the manufacture and supply of all those already finished products the United States imports. As China’s links to the world fracture, the entire East Asian manufacturing system will need to be broken up, reordered and relocated. It took five decades to build Asian manufacturing into its current form. Its unraveling will happen much more quickly.



On June 3 Melissa Taylor and Peter Zeihan will be hosting a video-conference on Manufacturing in a New Era. We’ll address the future of automotive, automation, reshoring, COVID’s shattering of supply chains, consumption shifts, as well as get you an update on the deepening trade war.

For those of you who don’t want to pop for the fee, we’ve recently completed a video on our projected shape of the COVID epidemic to come. You can watch it for free here.

Our June 3 manufacturing video-conference is only the first of a series which will include events focusing on Mexico, China, Energy and Agriculture. Scheduling and sign up information can be found here.



Newsletters from Zeihan on Geopolitics have always been and always will be free of charge. However, if you enjoy them or find them useful, please consider showing your appreciation via a donation to Feeding America.

One of the biggest problems the United States faces at present is food dislocation: pre-COVID, nearly 40% of all foods were not consumed at home. Instead they were destined for places like restaurants and college dorms. Shifting the supply chain to grocery stores takes time and money, but people need food now. Some 23 million students used to be on school lunches, for example. That servicing has evaporated. Feeding America helps bridge the gap between America’s food supply (which remains robust) and its demand (which coronavirus has shifted faster than the supply chains can keep up).

A little goes a very long way. For a single dollar, FA can feed one person for three days.