Victory

Per aspera ad astra

By Michael D. Shaw Nov 20, 2024 @ Mike's Point Of View

Donald Trump’s victory on November 5th has inspired hope in many, and self-absorbed meltdowns in others. As to meltdowns, I’m more interested in reactions OTHER than the obviously rehearsed histrionic performances that have been all over social media. Somehow, the prospect of “I think I’m going to have a breakdown, but first let me log into TikTok, so I can record it for posterity,” doesn’t exactly ring sincere.

Consider Allan Lichtman. Lichtman’s "13 Keys to the White House" was originally developed in 1981, and is claimed to have predicted nine of the last eleven presidential elections. Lichtman missed in 2000 and famously in 2024. People—including Cenk Uygur—heavily criticized Lichtman for his Harris prediction, and Lichtman went nuts on live TV, accusing Uygur of “blasphemy,” and noting that he didn’t need Uygur to call him “stupid.” Evidently not, since many others had already done just that.

In the matter of the 2000 election, Lichtman waffled by saying that he DID predict the popular vote—as if that matters. In short, he is not a gracious loser.

The 13 keys model utilizes the following precepts:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.  Advantage: Republicans

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.  Argumentative. Biden won the primaries, but to no avail.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.  Neither

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Not a factor

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Controversial, but advantage to the Dems

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.  Advantage: Republicans

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.  Given Ukraine and Afghan wars, Advantage: Republicans

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.  Advantage: Dems

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.  Given that Biden was effectively kicked out, Advantage: Republicans

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.  Per number 7, Advantage: Republicans

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Advantage: Republicans

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.  Advantage: Republicans

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Advantage: Republicans 

If eight or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election—but if fewer than eight are true, the challenger will win.  Any way you slice it, the willfully blind Lichtman violated his own guidelines, and amazingly blamed his failure on an explosion of “disinformation”—in effect blaming the voters. Uygur, to his credit, criticized Lichtman for this condescending point of view.

But then, this idea of blaming the consumer for the failure of a product is not exactly new. In the wake of its many recent Star Wars and Marvel box office disasters, this has been the go-to strategy for Disney. One wonders just how big a bomb the live action remake of Snow White will be. Will anyone at the House of Mouse admit to being the brains behind hiring the insufferable Rachel Zegler?

As far as I can tell, blaming the consumer dates back to the failure of Sony’s Betamax video cassette format, versus VHS. At the time, purists rightly noted that Betamax had better quality, but did not reckon with the longer available recording time offered by VHS. In the early days, recording time was a factor, since the media were expensive. However, that all changed, but not before Beta disappeared due to lack of sales.

At any rate, Beta versus VHS had nowhere near the arrogant “blame the idiot consumer” vibe. It would take 30 or more years for such self-aggrandizement to develop among the elite.

That’s why the most important aspect of Trump’s victory could be the permanent deflation of the elite and the “expert” class. God knows, they’ve caused enough destruction to last several generations. From Robert McNamara’s idiotic fallacy, to Tony Fauci’s mendacious “Give us two weeks to flatten the curve,” these geniuses have had their mettle tested, and have come up snake eyes.

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It's Not My Fault and I'm Not Taking the Blame. Get Over It!

By Rich Kozlovich 

As I'm going back and tagging my old posts I keep coming across some great older pieces.  On December 29, 2015 Douglas Ernst posted this piece, Prof to all white Americans: Admit your 'racist poison', saying: 

A college professor has taken to the New York Times to implore "white America" to go to "war" with itself over its alleged racism. Professor George Yancy of Emory University published "Dear White America" as a "gift" for white people. His challenge: "White America, are you prepared to be at war with yourself, your white identity, your white power, your white privilege?" The ways in which you perpetuate a racist society, the ways in which you are racist.”

Of course my first question was: How did this lunatic ever get a teaching job at any university? 

The second question we should be asking is: Is he representative of American academia?  The answer is Yes to the latter, and that explains how he got his job.

 Let's start with definition, for without definition clarity is impossible.

First of all, the words racism and prejudice are the two most misused words used in America. The word racist means hating someone simply because they belong to a different race. The word prejudice means to "prejudge". 

So the question we should be asking is this: Are whites prejudging blacks and hate them because their black or are whites evaluating them by their actions and saying - I don't like that?  If evaluating black society by the way they act as a culture, we have to conclude they've been found wanting. Violence, crime, illegitimacy and bad attitudes permeate black society. Why would anyone think that was acceptable? Why would anyone want to associate with any group who act in such manner? 

Black mobs rampaging through shopping malls, black kids "playing" the knockout game attacking helpless whites - especially if they're alone, old, female and outnumbered. Rampant rates of murder, rape, and crime in general. Not liking that, and saying so, is hardly prejudice or racism!  Unfortunately, there are entirely too many people defending this kind of behavior in black America, from both whites and blacks.  Refusing to recognize that kind of behavior for what it is, and worse yet, defending that kind of activity is actual racism. So, how is that racism?

What they're saying to the world is blacks are incapable of living civilized lives.  They're not capable of living crime free lives.  They're not capable of marrying the women they impregnate and raising their offspring.   They're incapable of holding down a job.  They're saying to the world blacks are savages and we should accept that.  All the while condemning as racist who've been recipients of all that violent behavior and speaking out against it.  Which presents another conundrum for these race hustlers since most of that behavior has been perpetrated against other blacks.   Are we to conclude these blacks who have suffered at the hands of other blacks are racists also?  

So, if that's the left's projection of blacks, and it is, we should be asking:  Who are the real racists?  

Perhaps they should try and remember Antonio Santiago. You do remember him don't you? At 13 Months Old I Was Killed By Two Black “Children”! What’s My Name?

We keep hearing how blacks are treated differently regarding employment, and the government constantly puts out figures to make that claim. However, when will the government put the whole picture on the wall? When will the government put out a study - based on race - showing how many work days are missed each year, how many days employees come to work late, leave early, cause trouble on the job, level of productivity, theft on the job, disciplinary write-ups, sexual harassment and violence on the job. Do the study!  After that I'm willing to let the cards fall where they may.

Okay, now let's see a show of hands.  How many people think the government or academia will ever undertake such a task? It won't happen - and why?  Because black race hustling activists, academia and the government are filled with racists who care little about black America, seeking instead their own benefits.

Race relations in America is the worst it's been in my almost 76 years, and Obama can take a lot of the blame, along with all the so-called black "leadership", who are nothing by race hustlers.  Race hustlers who totally disparage American conservatives, including those who just happen to be black, and the only ones to offer real solutions for black America, and the nation, because the implementation of conservative values, based on Judaic/Christian principles, raises all ships.

No society can be fixed if it won't recognize it's flaws and choose to fix itself, and living the lie that whites are responsible for the failure of black America is the first flaw that must be abandoned.