As usual (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, etc), let’s start the year by listing three things I’m hoping for and three things I worry may happen.
Let’s start with the good things that hopefully will happen this year.
Continued policy success and economic success for Argentina – it’s been great to see Javier Milei follow through on his libertarian principles and it’s been great to see quick positive results (balanced the budget, conquered inflation, restored growth, and lowered poverty). If he can achieve the same degree of progress in 2015, Argentina will be on the way to becoming one of the world’s freest economies. A stunning turnaround.
Pierre Poilievre defeats Justin Trudeau and winds up being the Ronald Reagan of Canada – Justin Trudeau is arguably the worst leader of any developed nation.
His economic policies have been a disaster. The spending burden has increased. The tax burden has increased. Economic freedom has declined. So it’s hardly a surprise that Canada is lagging. The leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, seems to have a very good agenda and is currently favored to win next year’s election. Let’s hope he becomes the Reagan of Canada. Or the Thatcher. Or, best of all, the Milei of Canada.
School choice in Texas – I want school choice everywhere, and it’s been great to see so many states move in that direction in recent years. For 2025, Texas is the big prize. Many anti-choice Republicans were defeated in primaries, so hopefully that’s a precursor to enactment of good reform this year.
Now let’s look at the things that I’m afraid might happen this year.
Progress is blocked in Argentina – I have complete confidence that Milei’s policies will produce growth, but will the benefits continue to materialize quick enough for the population to be happy? Will the Peronist-controlled legislature decide to block everything he is trying to achieve? Milei has a chance to become a role model for global economic reform so what happens in Argentina matters far outside the nation’s borders.
Republicans pursue a border adjustment tax – Because Trump and congressional Republicans have no interest in restraining spending, that makes it much harder to push for tax cuts and tax reform. This leads them to consider offsetting tax increases. In 2017, they pushed for a terrible idea known as border-adjustable taxation (I fretted that it was a pre-VAT). The same temptation will exist in 2025. The bad news is that it will lead to internecine warfare and derail any chance of good tax policy. The worse news is that it might actually get enacted, causing all sorts of problems.
Fiscal crisis (or crises) in Europe – I fully expect that Italy will suffer a Greek-style fiscal collapse at some point in the not-too-distant future.
But Italy is just the tip of the iceberg. Many European nations face similar problems of excessive spending, stifling taxation, and over-regulation. The continent is falling farther and farther behind the United States, and ordinary people are losing because of government-caused stagnation. The only silver lining to this dark cloud is that maybe, just maybe, a fiscal crisis in Europe will cause Republicans to sober up and realize that the United States needs spending restraint (but I won’t hold my breath).
P.S. All of my hopes for 2024 (libertarian success in Argentina, defeat of anti-school choice Republicans in Texas and Georgia, and reversal of the Chevron Doctrine) basically became reality. My number one fear (a Biden-Trump rematch) didn’t happen, but the Trump-Harris choice was rather depressing.
No comments:
Post a Comment