Back to the Future: Evaluating My Predictions for 2009

By Rich Kozlovich 

At this time for the year the “prediction brigade” comes out in force. So many prominent writers seem absolutely intent on telling the world what will happen the upcoming year. So, since so many seem intent on making predictions year after year, I decided I could probably do just as well, and did so in 2009. Originally I said that "If I am right I will crow about it! If I am wrong, I won't see the need to bring it up again." "Especially since "prediction is really hard...especially about the future".  

I also said that, “History will mark 2008 as the year when everything changed. Dramatically!” And why 2008? Because Barack Obama was elected President of the United States.

So, I have to ask if that prediction came true? Absolutely! And I knew this because he told everyone exactly what he intended to do while he was running. Most people will tell you what they're all about or what they're going to do if you just listen carefully.  Unfortunately most people didn’t pay attention, or didn’t believe what he was saying, or only heard what they wanted to hear. Then when he did what he said he was gong to do they were....and here it comes....they were “shocked …. shocked I tell you"!

Well, it’s been five years since I made those predictions - I think I was fairly accurate - so I think they’re worth reviewing.

Predictions 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 13 and 14:

Pesticides will come under even greater attack by the new head of EPA, in line with those actions by Browner and Ruckelshaus. Green activists and EPA will pressure states to eliminate preemption laws. Green activists and EPA will pressure states to implement new regulations which will mandate Integrated Pest Management (IPM) language in all locations, not just schools. There will be strong efforts to implement a new IPM licensing requirement in all states. There will be fewer, or at least less viable, pesticide manufacturers and distributors by the end of 2009.  Strong efforts will be made to remove pyrethroids from the market place for use by the general public. Strong efforts will be underway to remove them from the professional pest controller’s arsenal. 

Since I made that prediction we’ve had serious restrictions on the use of synthetic pyrethroids. I’ve been predicting that longer than six years, over which a great many pest controllers arrogantly snickered.   Especially those pest controllers who are almost “green” themselves. 

But the handwriting was on the wall and should have been obvious to the most casual observer.  This trend will continue, but this time it will be about neonicotinoids. They’ve already attacked neonics regarding Colony Collapse Disorder, which is completely (here, and here) as not only speculative scaremongering, but it turns out there was a conspiracy among activist scientists to eliminate neonicotinoids, something in which the green activists in and out of government excel.

Now the next attack will be about water quality and neonics in the water.  Beware of this assault on neonics since the EPA, the Bureau of Land Management, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Army Corp or Engineers are all attempting to take control of all the water in the nation via their interpretations of the Clean Water Act (CWA), and even when the courts find against them - they just continue down their illegal path. Ultimately this will have to be addressed by Congress with new legislation and a real effort to defund them all. 

The activists have made, and will continue to make, every issue an IPM issue.  According to them IPM is the answer to everything, in spite of the fact it can only be logically defined in agriculture, for which it was developed!  Why?  Because where there’s no alternative there’s no problem, so the activists insist IPM is the alternative to pesticides.   

I know, I know, IPM doesn’t require the absence of pesticides in treatments, but that’s merely a temporary position by the activists.  Wait until you start hearing them talk about “real IPM”, or “deep IPM”, or pesticides as a last resort IPM.  And then there’s the “least toxic” IPM scam - which if possible - is even less definable than IPM in structural pest control.  As for there being less manufacturers -  well that’s been the growing trend and will get worse.   Green activists and EPA will pressure states to eliminate preemption laws – and as long as preemption exists this will be a constant threat. 

Predictions 5, 6, 7, and 8: 

The pesticide manufacturing, distribution and applications industries will continue to jump on the green band wagon. The national and state trade associations for the pesticide applications industries will be forced to implement green initiatives. The national and state trade associations will face financial difficulties. There will be fewer trade associations defending the pesticide applications industries. 

I don’t think anything disturbs me more than watching manufacturers and pest control operators jumping on board the “green” bandwagon cuddling up with these insane green activists. These are people who belong to a movement that’s been responsible for the deaths of more innocent people than the socialist monsters of the 20th century, who according to the "The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression" murdered over 100 million innocent people. And that doesn’t even begin to cover the crimes  these green activist have perpetrated against humanity for the hundreds of millions of people who suffer every year from green initiatives involving pesticides and genetically modified organisms.

There is no such thing as “green pest control”, in or out of structural pest control, accept as a contrivance.  It’s just another attempt to create another “alternative” to synthetic pesticides.  Its blatant nonsense and treason by those who tout it as an alternative to the  “harsh chemicals” used within the pest control industry, including our trade associations, the trade magazines, and by those in government, including the bureaucrats and elected officials!   

One pest control operator was featured in Pest Control Technology magazine for his commitment to promoting “green” pest control to his customers.  As I read the article I kept asking myself: Why does he have to “sell” this to his customers?   

I don’t go to my customers and tell them I’m changing to bait, or I’m changing to a new chemical classification.  I just do it.  So why does he (and as far as I can tell this is done industry wide) have to sell it?  If he really believes in "green" pest control why doesn't he just do it?   

Is it because it’s going to be more expensive and less effective?  I went to his site and lo and behold there was that famous line about avoiding the use of “harsh” chemicals.  Chemicals he still uses in his services for those customers who don’t “buy” into his green program.  So what would you call that, hypocrisy or cognitive dissonance?

Now we’ve come to predictions 10, 11, 12 and 18.  

The pest control industry will make more money than ever before, but because of economic issues there will be fewer companies. The pest control industry will adapt to whatever is required. Bedbugs will become a nationwide plague. Prices for pest control services will become so high that those with the most need will be unable to afford it. 

The adaptability of the pest control industry is, in my opinion, legendary.  One year the Greater Cleveland Pest Control Association gave Jim Steckel, who has now passed, the Tom Evans Award.  Jim’s commitment to our industry was lifelong.  He was a past president of NPMA, an organization that was founded by Ohio and New York pest controllers, including his father, who was a founding member of NPMA.   

During Jim’s acceptance speech he wanted to put regulations in perspective.  He noted that the regulations imposed since 1972 has not hurt the industry financially - in fact we were making more money than ever.  And he was right, and that trend continues.     

Since the advent of the Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) and the loss of carbamate and organophosphate pesticides the money is even greater.   Let's get this right and yes we do need to point fingers.  The EPA and the FQPA is directly responsible for the nation's bedbug plague!  A plague the homeowner is largely incapable of dealing with themselves, nor can most of them afford professional treatments. 

In order to understand any issue it first has to be defined.  Do we view this problem with bedbugs as an economic issue or a moral issue?  The question we have to ask ourselves is this.  Do these anti-pesticide initiatives help society or hurt society?  It’s pretty clear the green movement – where the moderates among them think the world population needs to be reduced by between 4 to 5 billion people - is irrational, misanthropic and morally defective, and has been terribly destructive to human society. 

Does our making a great deal of money justify supporting the promotion of their initiatives, or even accepting the idea that "green" pest control exists at all accept as a contrived scheme by the activists in their quest to eliminate pesticides?  We also need to address this ourselves by asking: Is this anything less than a contrived scheme in pest control to make more money?  Pesticides do not cause cancer, autism, ADHD, or any other of the host of afflictions claimed by the activists.  If that's the case - and it is - why do we subscribe to this nonsense unless it's merely for money?   And I will happily publicly debate anyone involved in our industry that disagrees!

 
Predictions 15, 16, and 17 were as follows:

Rodenticides will be lost for use by the public. Work will be under way to remove them for use by professional pest controllers. Rodent control will suffer and their numbers will increase dramatically. 

Society will very soon lose products that are inexpensive and effective, to be replaced with products that are effective but expensive due to the requirements imposed by EPA.  Washington D.C. passed the Wildlife Protection Act of 2010 which made it illegal to kill rats.  They wanted rats captured live – preferable as families, without explaining how to tell which rats are related– and transferred to a “wildlife rehabilitator” for relocation. Just how brain dead is that?  And rat burrows appeared all over the streets of Washington D.C., including the tree lawns.  I saw them!

Predictions 19 and 20 - which are the most important in my opinion:

Insect and rodent borne diseases will increase startlingly, or at least this will be the start.  The poorest least educated among us will turn to illegal means of getting the relief that they need from pests that the government and green activists have deprived them of.

The startling increase in pest borne diseases hasn’t really occurred in the U.S., but we are now seeing Chagas disease appearing in the U.S. and it now seems clear that bed bugs can transmit this disease.  We’re seeing people use products not labeled for use in homes, we're seeing people resort to overuse of products that are ineffective against bedbugs, which I outlined in 2011 when I wrote this article, “Ideology Plus Desperation Equals Folly”, showing how desperate people have hurt themselves as a result of the desperate circumstance the EPA has placed them. 

I won’t making any predictions for 2015 because the predictions for 2009 could be repeated as a kind of "back to the future" again this year and be just as accurate, and more so as some of these predictions need time to play out. I believe the EPA, the Bureau of Land Management, the Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Army Corp of Engineers are so out of control it’s even obvious to politicians, and there will be an attempt to rein them in. I also believe there will be serious discussion to abolish the EPA, and I think it will be done!

EPA delenda est!