Lessons on lawfare in the wake of Trump.
Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s right-wing National Rally (NR) party, was, on Monday, March 31, convicted of embezzlement and barred from running for office for the next five years. While headlines across Europe and the United States were written with barely constrained joy at her political demise, Le Pen’s story is far from over. And if 2024 delivered any lessons at all in the repercussions of prosecuting populist leaders, the French judiciary may have made a huge miscalculation.
Embezzlement?
Along with a $108,000 fine and a suspended prison sentence, Le Pen is now banned from contesting the 2027 presidential election, in which she was highly likely to succeed. President Emmanuel Macron is term-limited and will not be able to seek a third term; after coming second in those two contests, the NR leader had improved her polling and looked set to redefine French politics come election day.
Consider the facts. Le Pen’s party in the European Parliament received EU funds; prosecutors claim that these funds were stolen, and the verdict declared her crimes a “democratic bypass.” And that is pretty much the limit of US reporting on the matter. But what did she spend the cash on? Here’s where things get a little murkier.
Le Pen represents her party in the European Union parliament and, as such, is entitled to funds for political enterprises. She also represents her party nationally in France as leader. Did she treat herself to lavish gifts, fancy meals, and designer clothing? No. Indeed, the funds to which she was legally entitled to spend were apparently – to some degree – commingled between her EU and national administration party activities. Simply put, she spent money designated for political activity on political activity.
Rules are rules, some might say. However, in 2025, French staple Le Monde reported that fully one-quarter of all members of the European parliament were involved in some type of scandal. While these range from the undoubtedly criminal to the more Kafkaesque foibles inherent in an overly bureaucratic apparatus, a great many are accused of precisely the same act as Le Pen.
So, why single out the leader of the party that could well form the next government? The clue is in the punishments.
See You on Monday, Le Pen
Le Pen’s sentence will undoubtedly be appealed – although French appeals courts are notoriously slow. As such, the verdict declares that her suspended prison term will not commence, nor will she have to pay the fine straight away – both of these will be on hold until all avenues of appeal are exhausted. But the ban on running for office has already started, meaning that even if she successfully appeals, she will almost certainly not be eligible to appear on the ballot in time for the 2027 election.
Even more surprising is that this ban applies only to seeking new office. She is currently the leader of the NR party in the EU and sits in its Parliament – she remains welcome to serve out her term in office. How curious.
Here’s an example. Let’s say Mr. X worked for a bank. Over a period of years, he stole money from the bank, was eventually caught, and then went to trial. After being sentenced, the owner of the bank catches up to him and says, “You thief! You stole from us! You deserve the prison sentence and the punishment. By the way, don’t be late for work on Monday.”
With this scenario in place, one wonders just how political the whole operation was.
Where Enemies Fear to Tread
As expected, Le Pen railed against the sentence, even storming out of the court as it was being delivered. Her deputy and likely contender for the election, should Le Pen fail to earn a reprieve, Jordan Bardella, said that Le Pen “is being unjustly condemned” and that French democracy “is being executed.” But her political opponents also had reservations regarding the outcome. Conservative politician Laurent Wauquiez wrote on X (translated):
“The decision to convict Marine Le Pen is both weighty and exceptional. In a democracy, it is unhealthy for an elected official to be barred from running for office. Political debates must be decided at the ballot box, by the French people.”
Monsieur Wauquiez has a point.
There are two aspects to consider in the sentencing of Le Pen. The
first is that when Macron came back to power, he begged for help from
all comers to defeat NR, resulting in a French parliament that could
function only with Le Pen walking the moderate path. The ragtag
collection of Greens, Communists, and the like have already resulted in
losing four prime ministers in 2024 alone. With Le Pen unleashed, the
French government can no longer rely on her to help battle the more
radical elements invited in by a desperate president. Votes of “no
confidence” are sure to begin mounting now that Le Pen has likely been
denied a path to direct power.
For keen political observers, another possibility is on the not-too-distant horizon. Democrats, the American judicial system, and the Fourth Estate were all aligned in their efforts to send Donald Trump to the Big House rather than the White House. In fact, there’s a solid argument to be made that the multiple prosecutions backfired and added fuel to the campaign fire, thrusting him back to the presidency. It is no coincidence that his mugshot became one of several now-iconic images of that 2024 race.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted along with the verdict: “Je Suis Marine” (I am Marine). Whether her second-in-command, Bardella, or she herself is on the ballot in 2027, her treatment by the state and the judiciary will be the looming shadow under which all campaigns are measured. The French voters may feel that they too, in at least some small way, are “Marine.”
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