The World As I See It: Central and South America

By Rich Kozlovich

There's been a lot of talk recently about the economics of our Southern neighbors, including some who've noted they're taking important steps to define their own economic destiny. Although I applaud them, there's just a few problems with that which will not be easily overcome - if at all.

First, the real problem in my opinion goes back to America’s involvement in WWI. There was no earthly reason for America to get into that bloodbath which bankrupted Europe and destroyed millions of lives, either killed or crippled for life.

The Lusitania was officially a British "passenger" ship, but it was known by the Germans to be carrying munitions, which made it a legitimate target,  and the British government knew that.   While the public was mislead into believing this was an act of barbarism because over a thousand passengers died, under the rules of war, the Lusitania was in fact a legitimate target.  If the American public should have been outraged it should have been against the British government for putting these civilian lives at risk.

The fact Americans were on board was immaterial, but Wilson made that a national issue to justify American involvement.  Wilson was an Anglophile, who while declaring neutrality, was working to push America into that meat grinder.  The man was contemptible in more ways than any politician in America today, and that’s saying a lot.

As for the “conspiracy” between Mexico and Germany known as the Zimmerman Note – that whole thing was a farce, a stupid farce, but none the less it was still a farce.  Neither Germany or Mexico could carry out any action against the U.S., and Mexico knew it, and Germany knew they couldn’t possibly support Mexico militarily or financially as promised.  Since America had just invaded Mexico and captured Veracruz in 1914 successfully, American leaders had to know it also.  That may have been justification for some sort of financial retaliation against Germany, but that should have been all.  There was no legitimate threat there.

Here’s some speculation. What if America had stayed out of WWI, what would have happened?

First, without American involvement the war would have remained a stalemate with the slaughter of the entire next generation and destruction of a lot of real estate costing billions Europe didn’t have. All the European powers were facing socialist, communist and anarchist uprisings and that would probably continue until the government of one or more of them was overthrown, just as it happened in Russia, or they would have all had to end the war with boundaries created by the German army in order to get control in their own nations.

Germany would go through economic collapse incapable of holding on to any land they occupied, and the rest of Europe would work to keep the embargo in place. In short – as trading partners they’d be worthless, and would have been unable to pay their bills.

That brings me to South and Central America. With Europe an economic mess that would create an incentive to increase trade with our neighbors to the South. What would be the long-term consequences? First, I think economic and social stability would have increased, and Argentina, which was one of the most economically successful nations on the planet could have been to model for the rest of South and Central America. It seems to me trade would have increased all over South and Central America, which would have been good for them and for us possibly preventing the take over by socialists.   

They wouldn’t have had to spend enormous amounts of money for their militaries either because of the geography of South America makes that need largely unnecessary being separated with jungles and mountains. When was the last time you heard about a war between South or Central American countries. Even the Norther Tier countries of South America have geographic obstacles that are extremely difficult to overcome. As for the rest of South America – moving armies through their geography makes it almost impossible, and none of them ever had a Navy capable of a Normandy style invasion.

Which brings me to the cold war.

If we just stood by and let the communists move into these government they would go broke all the faster, just as has Venezuela.  And if we had the foresight and patience – it would have all come our way, and the support from China and Russia would have evaporated long ago. The same is true of South East Asia. They more they controlled the sooner they’d go broke.

The fact remains we’re the only nation on Earth that can feed itself, fuel itself, arm itself and defend itself. They need us, we don’t need them. No matter what deals they make internationally – they will eventually have to look North, especially since it’s my belief the world is going to face a very large economic downturn after 2020 - how fast and how deep will depend on the region, with China and Russia leading the downward trend, and all that international trade will become much more problematic – except to the North – to the United States, and from that point on the U.S. will dominate these societies economically.