Saturday, April 28, 2018

Mid-term narrative of a 'blue wave' building is bogus

April 27, 2018 By Rick Moran

Amy Walter of the respected Cook Political Report asks the question: "If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?"

Indeed, the Democrat's lead in the generic ballot has gone from double digits last year to less than 7 points, according to several polls. And the reason may surprise you:

Here’s my best guess.

First, we tend to spend too much time looking at the margin instead of the vote itself. For example, the Quinnipiac poll in March had Democrats up 10 points. In April, that lead was down to just 3 points. The headline: Democrats lose their lead! But, let’s take a closer look at what actually changed between March and April. In March, 48 percent said they’d like to see Democrats win control of Congress to just 38 percent who said they’d want Republicans in control. In April, 46 percent wanted to see Democrats in control (a slight 2 point drop), while 43 percent picked the GOP (a more impressive 8-point improvement).  What does this mean?............As disgusted as many GOP voters have been with the party, their voters are still far more likely to pull the lever for Republicans rather than the Democrats..............Read more

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