We can and must adjust to climate change – and not kill billions

We’ve always done so and have no right to tell others they can’t have modern living standards 

By Paul Driessen and Ronald Stein

Earth’s climate has changed many times over four billion years, and 99.999% of those changes occurred before humans were on this planet. During that short time, humans adjusted their housing, clothing and agriculture in response to climate changes. Can we now control the climate?

Except for decades-long droughts or massive volcanic explosions that ended some civilizations, humanity generally adjusted successfully – through a Pleistocene Ice Age, a Little Ice Age, a Dust Bowl and other natural crises. Numerous state high temperature records were set in Dust Bowl years.

After putting our current “microsecond” on Earth into its proper perspective, we might therefore ask:

• With today’s vastly superior technologies, why would humanity possibly be unable to adjust to even a few-degrees temperature increase, especially with more atmospheric carbon dioxide helping plants grow faster and better, providing more food for animals and people?
• How dare the political, bureaucratic, academic and media ruling elites – who propagate GIGO computer predictions, calculated myths and outright disinformation – tell us we must implement their “green” policies immediately and universally ... or humanity won’t survive manmade climate influences that are minuscule compared to the planetary, solar and galactic forces that really control Earth’s climate?
• How dare those elites tell Earth’s poorest people and nations they have no right to seek energy, health and living standards akin to what developed countries already enjoy?

Scientists, geophysicists and engineers have yet to explain or prove what caused the slight change in global temperatures we are experiencing today – much less the huge fluctuations that brought five successive mile-high continental glaciers, and sea levels that plunged 400 feet each time (because seawater was turned to ice), interspersed with warm interglacial periods like the one we’re in now.

Moreover, none of the dire predictions of cataclysmic temperature increases, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense storms have actually occurred, despite decades of climate chaos fearmongering.

Earth continues to experience climate changes, from natural forces and/or human activity. However, adjusting to small temperature, sea level and precipitation changes would inflict far less harm on our planet’s eight billion people than would ridding the world of fossil fuels that provide 80% of our energy and myriad products that helped to nearly double human life expectancy over the past 200 years.

Today, with fuels, products, housing and infrastructures that didn’t even exist one or two centuries ago, we can adjust to almost anything.

When it’s cold, we heat insulated homes and wear appropriate winter clothing; when it’s hot, we use air conditioning and wear lighter clothing. When it rains, we remain dry inside or with umbrellas; when it snows, we stay warm indoors or ski, bobsled and build snowmen.

Climate changes may impact us in many ways. But eliminating coal, oil and natural gas – with no 24/7/365 substitutes to replace them – would be immoral and evil. It would bring extreme shortages of reliable, affordable, essential energy, and of over 6,000 essential products derived from fossil fuels.

It would inflict billions of needless deaths from diseases, malnutrition, extreme heat and cold, and wild weather – on a planet where the human population has grown from 1 billion to 8 billion since Col. Edwin Drake drilled the first oilwell in 1859.

• Weather-related fatalities have virtually disappeared, thanks to accurate forecasting, storm warnings, modern buildings, and medicines and other petroleum-based products that weren’t available even 100 years ago.
• Fossil fuels for huge long-range jets and merchant ships move people, products, food and medications to support global trade, mobility, health and lifestyle choices. Indeed, more than 50,000 merchant ships, 20,000 commercial aircraft and 50,000 military aircraft use fuels manufactured from crude oil. 
• Food to feed Americans and humanity would be far less abundant and affordable without the fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, and tractor and transportation fuels that come from oil and natural gas.
• Everything powered by electricity utilizes petroleum-based derivatives: wind turbine blades and nacelle covers, wire insulation, iPhone and computer housings, defibrillators, myriad EV components and more.

Petroleum industry history demonstrates that crude oil was virtually useless until it could be transformed in refineries and chemical plants into derivatives that are the foundation for plastics, solvents, medications and other products that support industries, health and living standards. The same is true for everything else that comes out of holes in the ground.

Plants and rocks, metals and minerals have no inherent value unless we learn how to cook them, extract metals from them, bend and shape them, or otherwise convert them into something we can use.

Similarly, the futures of poor developing countries hinge on their ability to harness foundational elements: fuels, electricity, minerals and feed stocks made from fossil fuels and other materials that are the basis for all buildings, infrastructures and other technologies in industrialized countries.

For the 80% of humanity in Africa, Asia and Latin America who still live on less than $10 a day – and the billions who still have little to no access to electricity – life is severely complicated and compromised by the hypocritical “green” agendas of wealthy country elites who have benefited so tremendously from fossil fuels since the modern industrial era began around 1850. Before that:

• Life spans were around 40 years, and people seldom traveled more than 100 miles from their birthplaces.
• There was no electricity, since generating, transmitting and utilizing this amazing energy resource requires technologies made from oil and natural gas derivatives.
• That meant the world had no modern transportation, hospitals, medicines and medical equipment, kitchen and laundry appliances, radio and other electronics, cell phones and other telecommunications, air and space travel, central heating and air conditioning, or year-round shipping and preservation of meats, fruits and vegetables, to name just a few things most of us just take for granted.

There are no silver-bullet solutions to save people from natural or manmade climate changes. However, adjusting to those fluctuations is the only solution that minimizes fatalities which would be caused by the callous or unthinking elimination of the petroleum fuels and building blocks that truly make life possible and enjoyable, instead of nasty, brutish and short. The late Steven Lyazi explained it perfectly in his own column for Townhall from 2017, "Solar Ovens and Sustained Poverty for Africa."

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org), and author of articles and books on environmental, climate and human rights issues. Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for the Heartland Institute and CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve only has a 20-day supply for the country

By Ronald Stein December 13th, 2023 44 Comments @ CFACT

In 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an oil embargo against the United States, triggering a crude oil crisis that sent the U.S. economy into a recession. To mitigate from any future shortages of oil, President Gerald Ford signed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, which established theStrategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

The SPR is centrally located along the Gulf Coast where the oil can be distributed to nearly half of all U.S. oil refineries using interstate pipelines or barges.

A few years after the SPR was authorized, in the aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis in 1977, the Department of Energy was established to lessen our dependence on foreign oil.

Today, California, the 4th largest economy in the world,California is importing almost 60 percent of its crude oil demands from foreign countries, to support the States’ 9 International airports, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America!

Now, after 50 years, the Department of Energy (DOE) is comprised of approximately 14,000 federal employees and over 95,000 management and operating contractors, and 83 field locations,

and a $48 billion dollar budget, the United States remains a net crude oil importer. Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States demands have also been increasing, resulting in imports exceeding exports, meaning the U.S. remains a net crude oil importer.

The United States, as a net crude oil importer, continues to rely on foreign countries to run the 118 international airports in the United States and the 500 Military airports in the United States.

50 years after the oil embargo crisis of 1973, there remain no American policy for crude oil independence. America continues to INCREASE its dependence on China for “green” minerals and metals, and on OPEC, Russia, and other countries for oil. Today, with LESS independence, America is more vulnerable to another embargo than we were 50 years ago!

Over the same period, California Governors have been continually decreasing California’s in-state oil production. The emissions policies of past and current Governors continue to force California, the

4th largest economy in the world, to be the only state in contiguous America that imports most of its crude oil feedstock to in-state refineries from foreign countries. The States Governor leaders over the decades have been:

•  Gov. Gavin Newson (D) 2019 – 2027
•  Gov. Edmund Brown (D) 2011-2019, and 1975-1983
• Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 2003-2011
•  Gov. Gray David (D) 1999-2003
•  Gov. Pete Wilson (R) 1991-1999

California’s growing dependency on other nations over the last several decades,some not particularly friendly to America, is a serious national security risk for all of us. It also deprives Californians of jobs and business opportunities and forces drivers to pay premium prices for the fuels and products manufactured at the decreasing number of in-state refineries.  

In the aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis, the Department of Energy was established 46 years ago in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Today, with 14,000 employees and a $48 billion dollar budget, California, the 4th largest economy in the world, imports most of its crude oil demands from foreign countries to run the States’ 9 International airports, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America!!

U.S. President Joe Bidens’ Administration has chosen to delete/sell off, much of the SPR inventory, which is currently less than half its capacity, resulting in an emergency reserve of just 20 days of supply remaining to deliver to U.S. based refineries.

The SPR was created almost 50 years ago, because of the OPEC crude oil reductions in availability in the early 70’s.  Since Biden has no plan to restore this emergency oil reserve supply, if OPEC, or other countries cuts back oil availability substantially again as they did back in the early-mid 70’s, those of us who experienced the motor fuel shortages back then, can expect to re-experience the very long fueling station vehicle lines, and other product shortages we experienced 50 years ago. 

The USA consumes about 19 million barrels of oil per day, while the United States and California are pursuing the elimination of crude oil production to focus on wind turbines and solar panels to generate electricity, China has no intentions of abandoning its economic, military, or strategic ambitions—all of which rely on non-renewables such as crude oil and coal. Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new refinery facilities in planning or under construction in Asia.

The Energy News Beat Podcast Hosted by Stu Turley had an educational and entertaining conversation about energy security. Specifically, California which has become an energy liability to the United States’ energy security. Please enjoy the 37-minute conversation between Stu and Ron:

Americans have obviously have not learned much in the 50 years since the Oil Embargo of 1973, as the following persist:

• California, the 4th largest economy in the world, was virtually independent of foreign oil in 1973, but now imports MOST of its crude oil demands to run the States’ 9 International airports, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America, AND 
• The USA remains a net importer of foreign crude oil, AND
• The possibility of importing manufactured fuels and petrochemicals from new Asian refineries in the coming years to support the American economy may soon become a reality.

In the meantime, under the watch of the Department of Energy that was established in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil, with a $48 billion dollar budget in 2023, 14,000 federal employees and over 95,000 management and operating contractors, they have “allowed” California, the 4^th largest economy in the world, to increase its dependency on foreign crude oil from 5 to almost 60 percent!

 

Without crude oil, there can be no electricity

By Ronald Stein October 17th, 2023 @ CFACT

Over the last 200 years, after the discovery of crude oil, the world populated from 1 to 8 billion. Today, all the electricity generation options available, such as wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear, hydro, coal, and natural gas, are all dependent on the products and components manufactured from crude oil to be able to generate electricity.

Looking back, the history of the petroleum industry illustrated that crude oil was virtually useless unless it could be manufactured (refineries) into oil derivatives that are now the basis of chemical products, such as plastics, solvents, and medications, that are essential for supporting modern lifestyles. The more than 6,000 products being used for humanity’s needs and the generation of electricity did not exist a few short centuries ago.

Today, we have more than 50,000 merchant ships, more than 20,000 commercial aircraft, and more than 50,000 military aircraft that use the fuels manufactured from crude oil. The fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of jets moving people and products and the merchant ships for global trade flows;  the military and space programs, are also dependent on what can be manufactured from crude oil.

For the aircraft and ships, just like that for the various options for the generation of electricity, they all utilize parts and components made from the oil derivatives manufactured from raw crude oil.

Mankind in the pre-1800s set the stage for the fantastic growth after the mankind’s discovery of crude oil:

• Life longevity was around forty years of age, and people seldom travelled more than one hundred miles from where they were born.
• A world population of about one billion people.
• No electricity, as all generation of electricity is only possible with the parts made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil for wind turbines, solar panels, and coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydropower plants.
• The following infrastructures were not around a few short centuries ago, because they all need components and parts that were NOT available in the pre-1800s.
1. Transportation
2. Hospitals
3. Medical equipment
4. Appliances
5. Electronics
6. Telecommunications
7. Communications systems
8. Space programs
9. Heating and ventilating
10. Military

Today, a few centuries after the discovery of crude oil:

• Everything that needs electricity and every infrastructure is made from oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, from the light bulb to the iPhone, defibrillator, and all the parts of EVs, toilets, and spacecraft.
• Weather-related fatalities have virtually disappeared with all the products and medications available today that were not available a few centuries ago.

Globally, as most of the world leaders in the few wealthy countries continue to focus on ceasing oil production and shuttering the refining of crude oil, the future does not bode well, as 20 percent of the almost 700 worldwide refineries are expected to close in the next 5 years, i.e., 140 closures. Further inflation and shortages in perpetuity are guaranteed, as those refineries are manufacturing the oil derivatives for all the products in society, and the fuels for the jets moving people and products, and the merchant ships for global trade flows and the military and space programs.

While the few wealthy countries are pursuing the elimination of crude oil, China has no intentions of abandoning its economic, military, or strategic ambitions – all of which rely on crude oil. Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new facilities in planning or under construction in Asia.

Policymakers in the few wealthy countries are not cognizant enough to understand that there has yet to be identified a replacement for crude oil that now provides the products and fuels that have been manufactured from crude oil during the last few centuries, that are the basis on every infrastructure segment supporting the 8 billion on this planet!

The elephant in the room that no one wants to discuss is that crude oil is the foundation of our materialistic society, as it is the basis of all products and fuels demanded by the 8 billion on this planet.

• Ridding the world of raw crude oil before we have a replacement to produce the oil derivatives currently manufactured from crude oil, we’re back to the 1800s.
• The greatest threat to the world’s populations could be the future for billions to exist and prosper without those oil derivatives that are currently supporting more than 6,000 products for society.
• Shockingly, very few parents, teachers, students, politicians, and those in the media have any clues or understanding about the basis of the products in our daily lives from crude oil!   Energy Literacy at its best!!!

The proverb “you can’t have your cake and eat it too” tells us that:

1. You can’t rid the world of crude oil and
2. Continue to enjoy the products and fuels that are currently made with the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

Without a replacement for the crude oil that’s been providing the products supporting today’s humanity for the last couple of centuries, policymakers seem to be focused on jumping out of an airplane without a parachute!

Here are a few suggested subjects for those energy literacy discussions at the dinner table:

1. Everything that needs electricity is made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil, from the light bulb to the iPhone, defibrillator, and all the parts of EVs, toilets, and spacecraft.
2. All generation of electricity is only possible with the parts made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil for wind turbines, solar panels, and the coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydropower plants.
3. Electricity came after crude oil!

 Author

 

Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”

The dangerous delusion of a global transition to “just electricity”

By Ronald Stein October 2nd, 2023|1 Comment @ CFACT

World leaders continue experiencing a “dangerous delusion” of a global transition to “just electricity” that that they believe will eliminate the use of the crude oil that made society achieve so much in a few centuries.

Crude oil is the basis of our materialistic society as discussed in an education and entertaining 27-minute podcast interview between Ronald Stein and Armando Cavanha in Brazil.

• All the components and equipment for the generation of electricity by wind, solar, coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydro are all made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil !

It’s shocking that the public has bought into the current rhetoric “lock, stock, and barrel” to STOP THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS, which simulates the resurrection of the 1978 mass murder-suicide of religious cult members of the Peoples Temple, led by Jim Jones, Jonestown, Guyana?

In September 2023 , 45 years after the Jim Jones tragedy in Jonestown, President Biden used his executive power to establish the American Climate Corps, which will employ and train 20,000 young people in the work of climate resilience without fossil fuels.

When this author watches the TV coverage of protesters, both politicians and teenagers, carrying signs to STOP THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS, what he SEEs on those posters is:

RID THE WORLD OF AIRPORTS, JETS, SHIPS, SPACE PROGRAMS, and STOP SOCIAL MEDIA, and THE PRODUCTION OF CELLPHONES, COMPUTERS, and PORCELAIN TOILETS that are dependent on the derivatives manufactured from crude oil!! 

Shockingly, very few parents, teachers, students, politicians, and those in the media, have any clues or understanding about the basis of the products in our daily lives!   Energy Literacy at its best!!!

As John Stossel so often said, “give-me-a-break”!

From the proverb “you can’t have your cake and eat it too” tells us that:

1. you can’t rid the world of crude oil
2. and continue to enjoy the products and fuels that are currently manufactured from crude oil.

Just a few hundred years ago, before oil, when the world’s population was around just one billion, the world was unspoiled, decarbonized, and dominated by mother nature and the wild animal kingdom. In the 1800’s there were no airports, automobiles, trucks, planes, cruise ships, coal fired power plants, natural gas power plants, electronics, or space programs, as the Beverly Hillbillies had not yet discovered oil!

Fossil fuels make products for humanity and support more bountiful harvests and a measure of food security that allowed time and energy for innovation and the onset of the Industrial Revolution that allowed the world to populate from 1 to 8 billion in 200 years because oil can be manufactured into thousands of usable, life-enhancing and life-saving products.

On the other hand, renewables can only generate occasional electricity, but cannot manufacture anything for humanity, while fossil fuels manufacture everything for humanity.

A couple centuries ago, there were fewer humans competing with the animals due to humanity’s limited ability to survive what mother nature provided. Before oil, life was hard and dirty, with many weather and disease related deaths.

World leaders are not cognizant enough to recognize that there are no plans for the replacement of the products and fuels now manufactured from fossil fuels, which are the basis on every infrastructure segment that are supporting the 8 billion on this planet!

The 3 fossil fuels of crude oil, coal, and natural gas, do different things for society. Crude oil is the only one seldom used to generate electricity as it is primarily used to manufacture fuels and products for society that are the basis of the worldwide economy.

• Crude oil: primarily used for transportation fuels, road asphalt, aviation fuel, but less than one percent for electricity generation.
• Coal:  primarily used as fuel to generate electricity, coal also has a myriad of other uses, including in cement production, carbon fibers and foams, medicines, tars, synthetic petroleum-based fuels, and home and commercial heating.
• Natural Gas: generate electricity, heating, and industrial uses for production of chemicals, fertilizers, hydrogen, etc.

Eradicating the world of crude oil usage, without first having a replacement in mind, would be immoral and evil, as extreme shortages of the products now manufactured from fossil fuels will result in billions of fatalities from diseases, malnutrition, and weather-related deaths, and could be a greater threat than climate change to the world’s eight billion population.

This Epoch Times TV 1-minute video about the lack of a backup plan to replace oil is short, educational, and entertaining. The video has already been viewed by more than 834,000 on social media.

By contrast, “transitioning” humanity to just electricity means converting to wind and solar systems that can manufacture none of the vital products now being used by humanity. That will very likely cause the death of BILLIONS of people from diseases, malnutrition, lowered living standards and weather-related disasters, whereas projections of millions of fatalities from “carbon emissions” and climate change are based on computer models that take none of these realities into account.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are great World War I and II historians. They both know there is no substitute for fossil fuel product dominance in the foreseeable future, even on a longer-term horizon. To believe a transition to just electricity from renewables is possible from the products now manufactured from fossil fuels and act accordingly is suicidal for humanity. As former Congressman Don Ritter of Pennsylvania wrote “It’s the real “existential threat.”

Occasional electricity from renewables cannot run modern civilizations households, businesses, hospitals, militaries, space programs, jets, and cruise ships, and no products and fuels that are now based upon crude oil!

The silence is deafening from billionaires like Bill Gates, John Kerry, Mark Zuckerberg, George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, President Biden, and the media that continues to refrain from asking a John Stossel styled “give-me-a-break” question: Can you imagine our world without jets, airports, merchant ships, cruise liners, militaries, hospitals, social media communications, space programs, and toilets?

Author

• 
  Ronald Stein

  Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”

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Without a replacement, abandoning fossil fuels, supports China

By Ronald Stein August 8th, 2023|76 Comments @ CFACT

Wind turbines and solar panels that can generate electricity intermittently, are themselves totally dependent on fossil fuels for all their components. Renewables offer NO energy independence, as America has never imported electricity from foreign countries. Wind and solar just generate intermittent electricity.

Further, the raw materials that are essential for building EV batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels, are increasingly dependent on the supply chain of exotic minerals and metals being mined in developing countries with minuscule labor or environmental regulations.

For those that set written policies and regulations, they seem to just follow the personal passions of leaders like that of President Biden and California Governor Newsom to rid America of fossil fuels usage.

With America representing only four percent of the world’s population, the elite leaders desire to have America’s emissions lowered to reduce its impact on the world’s climate, is like that of someone poring a bucket of hot water into the ocean and claiming that it will change the temperature of the entire ocean!

The implications of abandoning fossil fuels without a replacement are enormous for global commerce, and especially for America. Simultaneously with those continuous efforts to reduce nationwide oil production, American demands for the products and fuels manufactured from crude oil are continually increasing its dependency on foreign countries.

As Don Ritter recently discussed, the autocratic oil Producers (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, and China) clearly benefit from America’s declining production, because major Consumers (India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and others) that buy oil, gas and petrochemicals must feed their people, fuel their vehicles, and grow their economies at reasonable cost.

Unbeknownst to President Joe Biden and California Governor Gavin Newsom, is that China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are great War historians. As World War I and II historians, Russia, China, and OPEC know, the country that controls the minerals, crude oil, and natural gas, controls the world!

Therein lies the mystification.

• Wind turbines and solar panels can only generate intermittent electricity. They cannot manufacture any products for society.
• Crude Oil on the other hand is virtually useless, unless it’s manufactured (refineries) into oil derivatives that are the basis of more than 6,000 products in our daily lives that did not exist before the 1900’s, and the fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of more than 50,000 jets moving people and products, and more than 50,000 merchant ships for global trade flows, and the military and space program.
• The chemical derivative manufactured from crude oil are the basis of all the components of wind turbines, solar panels, and EV batteries. Ridding the world of crude oil would eliminate renewables!

China has no intentions of abandoning its economic, military, or strategic ambitions – all of which rely on fossil fuels. Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new facilities in planning or under construction in Asia.

China has now abandoned the Paris Climate Accords and President Xi Jinping has reiterated that China would set its own path on the issue of emissions and not be influenced by outside factors. That alone likely makes America’s and the West’s fossil fuel sacrifices on the climate altar both painful and pointless.”

The healthy and wealthy countries of the Germany, Australia, Great Britain, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, and all the EU, and the USA representing about one of the eight billion of the world’s population could literally shut down, and cease to exist, and the opposite of what the media tells us and believes will take place.

Emissions will be exploding from those poorer developing countries, i.e., the other seven billion on this planet. Unlike the wealthy countries that have huge economies that can subsidize any delusionally obsessed idea, these poorer countries dismal economies cannot subsidize themselves out of a paper bag!

Simply put, in these healthy and wealthy countries, every person, animal, or anything that causes emissions to harmfully rise could vanish off the face of the earth, or even die off, and global emissions will still explode in the coming years and decades ahead over the population and economic growth of India, Nigeria, China, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Tanzania.

As Don Ritter recently pointed out, even more ironic (or insane), China dominates the world’s wind, solar and battery technologies, with their raw material supply chains and their manufacturing.

We are witnessing a geopolitical shift of historic proportions. Fossil fuel-friendly China and other autocratic oil producers will be the biggest winners; fossil fuel-repressing democratic America and the West the biggest losers.

Why are all the American military Generals that report to President Joe Biden, not asking the simple question: How will America run its military (ships, planes, and vehicles) without fuel?

While the richest billion population are intent on squandering their electricity legacy on weather -dependent so-called ‘renewables’, countries like India and China are building nuclear and coal-fired power plants at a staggering rate to provide their people with continuous uninterruptable electricity.

Autocratic China is the biggest beneficiary of all from the Western strategy of jumping out of an airplane without a parachute, i.e., abandoning fossil fuels before the West has identified a replacement for crude oil, to provide the products and fuels now demanded by its populace.

Author

• 
  Ronald Stein

  Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”

  View all posts

Automobile industry mandated toward a death spiral

By Ronald Stein September 10th, 2022 |Energy| 273 Comments @ CFACT

Zero emissions at ANY COST seems to be the direction being mandated by governments and the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) movements around the world, to divest in fossil fuels.

The few healthy and wealthy countries of the United States of America, Germany, the UK, and Australia representing 6 percent of the world’s population (505 million vs 7.8 billion) that are mandating social changes to achieve zero emissions may be fueling (no pun intended) a death spiral for the automobile industry.

Simply put, in these healthy and wealthy countries, every person, animal, or anything that causes emissions to harmfully rise could vanish off the face of the earth; or even die off, and global emissions will still explode in the coming years and decades ahead over the population and economic growth of China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, and Africa.

We will look at each of the “pieces of the EV puzzle” that may be the formula for an automobile industry death spiral:

1. Extremely limited supply chain for the lithium to make current technology EV batteries
2. Lack of sufficient number of buyers, outside the elite profile of existing EV owners
3. Shortage and inflation for all the material supplies to make vehicles.
4. Due to EV battery fire potentials, questionable means of transporting EV from foreign manufacturers to the USA.
5. Concern about renewable electricity being able to charge EV batteries.
6. The Government’s’ lack of ethical, moral, and social responsibilities, by encouraging the exploitations of people with yellow, brown, and black skin that are mining for exotic minerals and metals in poorer developing countries to support the green movement in wealthy countries.

Where are the batteries?

While the race is on to produce more lithium in the United States as the supply chain for the major component of EV batteries, lithium, is already being compromised internationally. The following international dark clouds on the lithium supply chain may be a prelude to an American rejection of strip mining in the most environmentally regulated and controlled communities in the world:

• The Chilean Supreme Court stopped the mining of lithium in Salar de Atacama, Chile – a huge chunk of terrain that holds 55 percent of the world’s known deposits of lithium.
• Initiatives around the world to open mines and ore processing plants have caused a public uproar as environmentalists and the local population are fearful about the impact on nature and people’s livelihoods.
• The European Chemicals Agency’s (ECHA) risk assessment committee is aiming at labelling three lithium compounds as dangerous for human health

Where are the buyers?

The current EV ownership profiles of the oligarchic elite that are highly educated, highly compensated, multi-car families, with low mileage requirements for the families second car, are dramatically different from most vehicle owners that are single-car owners, not highly educated, nor highly compensated. Mandating a change to EV ownership and forced austerity may face a rebellion from those that need transportation.

Where is the transportation from the foreign manufacturers to the car dealers?

In 2019, China, Japan, India, Germany, and South Korea were manufactured more than 50 million vehicles compared to the 11 million that were manufactured in the USA

Bringing those foreign built cars to America may be an insurmountable insurance problem. The Felicity Ace, a 650-foot-long cargo ship carrying hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of luxury cars sunk in March 2022. The salvage crew working on the burning ship said electric-vehicle batteries were part of the reason it was still aflame after several days. The estimated market value of the Felicity Ace was $24.5 million, while the total value of the 3965 vehicles were over $500 million.

With potential fires from EV batteries in vehicles, who is going to take the insurance responsibility for their safe passage from the foreign manufacturers to American ports, the cargo ships, or the manufacturers?

Where are the vehicle materials?

Most people do not know that crude oil is useless unless it can be manufactured into something usable. All the material for the EV, from electronics, plastics, glass, leather, tires, etc. are all made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

Today’s ESG divesting in fossil fuels are all the rage to divest in all fossil fuels. ESG is working but will result in shortages and inflation as the new norm as society’s demands for the products from crude oil are exceeding the supply from the diminishing number of manufacturers.

There were almost 700 oil refineries in the world as of January 2020, but as a result on continuous over regulations, permitting delays, aging equipment, over the next five years 20 percent of the them are projected to close. That is a whopping 140 manufacturers that will close. Shortages and inflation in perpetuity may be the new norm as society’s demands for the products manufactured from crude oil are continually exceeding the supply from the diminishing number of manufacturers.

Where is the electricity?

The government’s zest for zero emissions electricity in favor of intermittent electricity from breezes and sunshine are eliminating coal fired and natural gas power plants that have been generating continuous uninterruptible electricity.

We have all read about the concerns toward “grid stability” to be able to charge those EV batteries. Well, the UK may have given the world a heads-up on why electricity rates may be rising in perpetuity.

• In the UK, their concerns for grid stability with fewer and fewer continuous uninterruptible power generations facilities has implemented regulations that went into force in June 2022, that restrict charging times.
• In the UK, new chargers in the home and workplace now automatically switch off in peak times to avoid potential blackouts. New UK chargers are pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8am to 11am (3-hours), and 4pm to 10pm (6-hours).
• In addition, all home installed UK electric vehicle chargers are required to be separately metered and send this information to a Smart meter data communications network. Potentially, this UK legislation allows the electricity used for charging EVs to be charged and taxed at a higher rate than domestic electricity. Obviously, the EV electricity users are the ones that will be paying to upgrade and maintain the grid.

Where is the ethical, moral, and socially responsibility for the lithium supplies to meet the mandate toward EV’s?

The Pulitzer Prize nominated book that I co-authored, “Clean Energy Exploitations – Helping Citizens Understand the Environmental and Humanity Abuses That Support Clean Energy, does an excellent job of discussing the lack of transparency to the environmental degradation and humanity atrocities occurring in developing countries mining for those exotic minerals and metals to support the “green” movement.

The subsidies to purchase EV’s are financial incentives to encourage further exploitations of yellow, brown, and black skin residents in developing countries. Are those subsidies ethical, moral, and socially responsible to those being exploited?

In summary, the passion of the few wealthy countries to achieve zero emissions at any cost, will face major supply chain issues of lithium and all body parts, affordability, safety from spontaneous fires, availability and affordability of electricity from breezes and sunshine, and the ethical challenges that are exploiting folks in poorer countries, just for the elites to drive an EV manufactured by the few that survive the government mandated death spiral.

This article originally appeared at Heartland

Author

• Ronald Stein

  Ronald Stein is an engineer, senior policy advisor on energy literacy for CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”