Search This Blog

De Omnibus Dubitandum - Lux Veritas

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Government winter forecasts vs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac

By ,   | November 13th, 2019 | Climate | 222 Comments @ CFACT

The Old Farmers Almanac has a track record of accuracy and honesty in climate forecasting, though the general public is likely unaware of it. They base their predictions on more than two centuries of experience in meteorology, climatology and mathematical models tested over those centuries. They have a long line of skilled and experienced forecasters whose honesty is above reproach. If humanly possible they have to get it right. The farm economy depends on it.

The UN and NASA’s climate division, faces no consequences for inaccurate or fabricated science and forecasts. As a result we are facing quite a contrast in forecasts for the approaching winter.
Both NASA climate groups, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) predict the 2019-2020 winter more in keeping with the climate change delusion of warming produced by our use of fossil fuels and their associated carbon dioxide emissions. They predict warmer -than-average temperatures in store for the country.

NOAA wrote on October 17th, “Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter… below-average temperatures are not favored.”

So can we keep the snow-shovel in the closet? Not according to the Farmers Almanacs.

Founded in 1792 (with a second competitive version beginning publication in 1818), American farmers have been depending on the skill and accuracy of the Almanac’s seasonal forecasts. These forecasts have to be right. If they are not, farmer’s who depend on it could suffer significant financial loss. The Farmer’s Almanac, with no bias whatever would loose there financial support from buyers and advertisers.

While by contrast, to further political objectives set primarily by the Obama administration, the UN, NASA climate division, and NOAA are essentially required to find every way to move the needle towards the warming delusion.

The managing editor of Almanac Version 1 (founded 1792) summed it up:
“We’re using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It’s going to be very cold.
Version 2 of the Almanac (founded 1818) agrees.
“We expect yet another wild ride this winter,” editor Peter Geiger said “with extreme temperatures swings and some hefty snowfalls.”
The coming winter is described by version 2 as a “polar coaster” for about 70% of the US.
According to the Almanac, which has been on the bulls-eye recently in winter forecasts, the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area could expect temperatures dropping to -40 (F).

The Almanacs provide climate forecasts nationally and state-by-state. Iowa for example, is predicted to have a “frigid and snowy” winter.

Democrat-controlled Illinois is preparing for Global Warming by putting the few and obsolete snow plows they have into storage based on the NOAA’s mild weather prognostication, while the Almanacs both project Illinois to be worse off than Iowa. Illinois has a dual winter climate forecast with part of the state “frigid and snowy” and the other part “frozen and snowy”.

“Only the western third of the country will see near-normal winter temperatures, which means fewer shivers for them,” the Almanac (Version 2) writes.

So far this year, the Almanacs have been right on target, with bitterly freezing temperatures and massive snow storms in the northern states of North Dakota and Montana and surrounding plains area already starting.

In addition to the unbiased Almanac predictions are private sector weather teams such as WeatherBell where prominent experts such as Joe Bastardi (often called on by network news shows) and Joe “D’ Aleo who are paid by companies whose efforts can be Weather dependent to give them a leg up on what impacts of weather they may expect. Among their clients at dozens of the major energy companies in the nation. Their analysis is complex and proprietary but line up with the Almanacs surprisingly often.

In this frigid forecast, the FARMER’S ALMANAC has a high tech ally in NASA’s Langley Research Laboratory. Unlike NASA’s climate division which is a politicized group dealing in propaganda, The Langley Laboratory is only about science. The chief scientist of the Langley Research Laboratory, Dr Martin Mlynczac, has developed a satellite method and system of calculating the loss of heat energy from the earth from its atmosphere into space.

Dr Mlynczac described his research methods: “I conduct basic research into the energy balance and climate of the atmosphere from Earth’s surface to the edge of Space. I lead the development of innovative techniques (instruments, technology, models, algorithms) to remotely sense the atmosphere from satellites, suborbital rockets, aircraft, high altitude balloons, and the ground.”

The Langley Research Lab system calculates heat loss on a scale of 1 (being the minimum of heat loss), with 10 being the maximum. We are at a 10, and Dr Mlynczac wrote:“We see a cooling trend… High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a space age record for cold.”

The reason for this present and coming cold is of course… the sun. The sun controls climate on earth, and weather as well. The effect of CO2 is zero. And we are now in a deep Grand Solar Minimum, with the sun in a cooler phase. Therefore climate on earth will be cooler. Not only this winter, but we are on the downward slope towards a SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM, which is most accurate solar model (that of Valintina Zharkhova’s team, Northhumbria University) forecasts to begin at latest in 2035, and perhaps much earlier.

It’s not going to be like the Hollywood disaster films of ice ages in New York City, but it’s going to be cold, with consequences for water, electric power, transportation, and agricultural infrastructure. Very few American cities, for example have the equipment to keep the roads and highways open in an extra cold period. This is explained in the book, ICE AGE 2025, by the senior author of this article.

SO WILL IT BE COLD AS THE FARMERS ALMANACS and THE LANGLEY LAB SUGGEST OR WARM as the UN, NOAA and NASA’s CO2 CLIMATE GROUP. PROPOSE? We suggest investing in woolen long underwear for the family this winter, and you’ll be fine.

Author

  • Dr. Joel Glass is an engineer working in the field of water infrastructure for ultra-cold climate environments. His book is ICE AGE … 2025: HOW TO PREPARE AMERICA AND YOUR FAMILY.

  •  
    Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition. He has authored more than 1,000 magazine and journal articles and 36 books.

No comments:

Post a Comment