Uncovering the Biases in State-Level Polling Data

By Sierra Rayne

In addition to clear polling bias against GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump at the national level, we see the same pro-liberal bias within the state data.  It's not just in places like Utah, but all across the nation.

The problem is so deep and widespread that only fools would attempt to average the datasets to assess the actual mood of the electorate. All of this data needs to be corrected prior to averaging, and if that is done, it becomes abundantly clear that Trump is likely leading Hillary Clinton by at least several points at the national level, and statewide data is shaping up consistent with a possible Trump landslide.

One polling firm consistently reported on the RealClearPolitics poll tracker is Public Policy Polling (PPP), whose data could provide some useful insights into the American experience, but which appears to have an anti-Trump bias this cycle due to demographic deficiencies.........Read more

After correcting for bias, Clinton's national lead in CBS News poll evaporates, By Sierra Rayne
CBS News is now pushing the pro-Hillary Clinton polls in rapid fashion.  Late on Wednesday, this media outlet released the results of a national poll claiming to show that Clinton holds a 6% advantage over Donald Trump in the direct head-to-head matchup.  Apparently, the poll "was conducted by telephone June 9-13, 2016 among a random sample of 1,280 adults nationwide, including 1,048 registered voters[.] ... The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables."

However, based on the polling details, the final weighted sample of 976 registered voters is made up of just 28% Republicans and 35% Democrats.  In the unweighted sample of registered voters, the relative percentage by party was 29% Republicans and 35% Democrats. So, during the weighting process, the poll increased the Democrat-Republican spread from 6% to 7%.  This relative weighting should have been headed in the other direction.......Read more

Shocker: CBS News and ABC/WaPo find that liberal-biased polls disfavor Trump , By Sierra Rayne
Two new polls came out Wednesday claiming to show GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in trouble. But given the deep liberal bias built into both polls, the corrected findings are actually a sign that Hillary Clinton's campaign is the one in serious trouble with American voters. The CBS News poll was conducted June 13-14, and purports to show that "Americans give the President net positive ratings on his response to the Orlando attack," while "[m]ore than half disapprove (51 percent) of presidential candidate Donald Trump's response." High ratings for Barack Obama and low ratings for Trump? One might almost think that to get such results the poll must be biased towards Democrats, and it is. In the weighted survey composition, just 24.9% of respondents were Republicans, compared to 32.4% Democrats and 42.8% independents. A nearly 8% advantage to Democrats over Republicans is well out of touch with reality....... Read more