Wednesday, August 20, 2014

From Benny Peiser's Global Warming Policy Foundation

Hundred-Year Period Of Increased Solar Activity Coming To An End
Solar Cycles Linked To Global Warming Pause, New Paper

At the moment, the space climate is undergoing an extremely interesting phase. Now a 100-year period of heightened solar activity is coming to an end. The reason behind the fluctuation in solar activity is not yet known. One hypothesis is that these long solar cycles are caused by the gravity forces of the planets in the solar system. However, the current knowledge does not support this hypothesis. --Juha Merimaa, Helsinki Times, 18 August 2014
Long-Term natural cycles linked to the sun could explain the pause in global average surface temperatures and offer a better guide for coastal planners to predict sea level rises, storm surges and natural disasters. Publication of the findings in Ocean and Coastal Management follows a decade-long struggle for the lead author, Australian scientist Robert Baker from the University of New England, whose work has challenged the orthodox ­climate science view that carbon dioxide is the dominant factor in climate change. His latest paper with his PhD student faced a ­series of objections from scientists close to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but was published after an 11-member peer review panel voted 8-3 to publish. --Graham Lloyd, The Australian, 16 August 2014


Further evidence suggesting that the sun may be implicated in global warming has emerged in a paper published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics. The astronomical finding based on a careful analysis of sunspot activity has clear implications for climate science as the so called “grand maximum” in solar output identified by the researchers and observed between 1950 and 2009 co-incided with the rapid warming of global surface temperatures seen during the second half of the 20th century. This finding that the period of most intense global warming has coincided with an unprecedented peak in recorded solar output will add pressure onto the IPCC to look again at the interconnection between the sun and the climate. --Reporting Climate Science, 7 August 2014

A new study from Lund University has, for the first time, reconstructed solar activity during the last ice age. The study shows that the regional climate is influenced by the sun and offers opportunities to better predict future climate conditions in certain regions. For the first time, a research team has been able to reconstruct the solar activity at the end of the last ice age, around 20,000–10,000 years ago, by analyzing trace elements in ice cores in Greenland and cave formations from China. The new study shows that the sun’s variation influences the climate in a similar way regardless of whether the climate is extreme, as during the Ice Age, or as it is today. --Lund University, 19 August 2014

The newly proposed revisions to the sunspot record going back to 1749 will have some effect on global warming predictions. The current “pause” in global warming may last for many more years to come, perhaps accompanied by some cooling. --Inform the Pundits, 17 August 2014

August 16 Arctic sea ice area is the highest in a decade, up 54% from two years ago, and within one standard deviation of the 1979-2014 mean. --Steve Goddard, Real Science, 17 August 2014

Marine and terrestrial proxy records suggest that there was a peak in global warming between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, following the end of the last glacial period. Since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Earth has undergone global cooling. The physical mechanism responsible for this global cooling has remained unknown and doesn’t fit in with the current C02 based climate models. Those climate models generate a robust global annual mean warming throughout the Holocene, mainly in response to rising CO2 levels and albedo changes due to retreating of ice sheets. In other words, the models disagree with reality, and when models disagree with nature the models have a credibility gap……The fact that all the world’s complex and expensive climate models can’t explain climate change since the last glacial period ended is one of the little talked about embarrassments of climate science. --Doug Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, 15 August 2014

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