Monday, February 23, 2015

China’s Coal Trends: Myth & Reality

From Benny Peiser’s Global Warming Policy Forum
China’s march towards coal continued in 2014 as shown by data from the latest report from China’s National Energy Administration. Despite additions of substantial wind, solar, and nuclear capacity, when properly adjusted for capacity factor (the amount of annual energy produced per unit of capacity) to reflect production capability, the amount of new coal energy added to the China grid last year exceeded new solar energy by 17 times, new wind energy by more than 4 times, and even new hydro by more than 3 times. And, despite having more than 30 new nuclear reactors under construction, China’s new nuclear capability was still a fraction of new coal energy. -- Armond Cohen, Clean Air Task Force, 18 February 2015
The basic coal math in Cohen’s piece is a sobering reminder that the fossil age is not ending any time soon. Unfortunately, I don’t share Cohen’s optimism about prospects for the deployment of CCS at a scale the climate would notice, mainly because there’s no incentive for China to pay the additional cost, no sign (unless you can identify one?) that developed countries will be willing to cover the difference and little evidence that the world is serious about a much more ambitious push on large-scale demonstration of integrated systems for capturing and storing CO2. --Andrew Revkin, International New York Times, 18 February 2015

One of the biggest miscalculations that the global warming alarmists have made is claiming that global CO2 emissions must reach their peak by 2020 and then begin falling rapidly. If they don’t, there will be no chance of reaching the 2°C maximum warming target. Planetary catastrophe will ensue, the alarmists claim. British energy behemoth BP has just released its BP Energy Outlook 2035, and it states in no uncertain terms that there is no chance of CO2 emissions beginning their decline by 2035, let alone 2020. The BP Report shows strong growth in renewable energy, but it will be only about 8% of global energy supply by 2035. That’s light year’s away from the UN’s 50% target. Obviously, no one except a few token countries are taking renewable energies seriously. --Pierre Goselin, No Tricks Zone, 18 February 2015
We project that by 2035 China becomes the world’s largest energy importer, overtaking Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 23%. China’s energy production rises by 47% while consumption grows by 60%. China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas (+200%) and coal (+19%) more than offsetting declines in oil (-3%). China’s CO2 emissions increase by 37% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD by the end of the Outlook. --BP Energy Outlook 2035

India’s energy production rises by 117% to 2035 while consumption grows by 128%. India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 22 years with fossil fuels accounting for 87% of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81%. This is down from 92% today. Oil remains the dominant fuel (36%) followed by gas (30%) and coal (21%). CO2 emissions from energy consumption increase by 115%. --BP Energy Outlook 2035

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