China’s
eagerly anticipated “hard landing” hasn’t happened yet, and recent indicators
make me wonder (not for the first time) if it ever will. In the past two
months, the Chinese economy has actually shown signs of accelerating.
Constant pessimism in financial markets about the
country’s prospects is only partly guided by economic analysis. There’s also
the faith-based view that growth as rapid as China’s simply can’t go on -- and
that a non-democratic country really shouldn’t expect to prosper. Many skeptics
have been highlighting China’s impending collapse for almost as long as I have
been following the country. Maybe the skeptics should be viewed a little more
skeptically.
By the end of this
year, China’s gross domestic product will be roughly
$9 trillion, making its economy comfortably more than half the size of the
U.S., and half as big again as Japan.
I recall once projecting that China might be as big as Japan by 2015. The
country’s far ahead of that optimistic schedule…..To Read More…..
My Take - All these positive figures are delusioary and there are other negative forces at work in China that will have a substantial impact on their economy.
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