Analysis September 24, 2013
Contrary to popular perception, Central Asia is not likely to see an immediate
explosion of violence and militancy after the U.S. and NATO drawdown from
Afghanistan in 2014. However, Central Asia's internal issues and the region's
many links with Afghanistan -- including a web of relationships among militant
groups -- will add to the volatility in the region.
Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the
region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First
and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically;
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that
collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). The Afghan
border with Tajikistan, along the eastern edge of Afghanistan, makes up more
than half of that distance, at 1,344 kilometers. The borders with Turkmenistan
(744 kilometers) and Uzbekistan (137 kilometers) run along Afghanistan's
western edge. Most of the Tajik-Afghan border is mountainous and therefore
poorly demarcated, and the topography of Afghanistan's frontiers with
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is largely desert. ....To Read More....
My Take - I posted this because of the historical background, but it would appear to me this analysis places too little stock in an important component....Islam! I think we will see even more violence, albeit the Taliban may not be as strong as they were in the past. The power has spread to a lot of different groups, and that has left a power vacuum that someone will insist on filling.