The Ukraine Peace Process as I See it: Overview

By Rich Kozlovich

In spite of the fact the Russo/Ukrainian War has been going on for almost four years, It's a bit early to make predictions but as I watched this whole mess playing out I've come to some conclusions.  

First, I really hate beating this drum, but I do wish people would abandon the depth of defense logic for Russia’s “need” to attack Ukraine.  Even Putin disputes that when he admits if Trump had been elected in 2020 he wouldn’t have attacked.   He attacked because he wanted Ukraine, he wanted to be a world shaker, he wants to be Czar, he wants to reestablish the Russian  Empire, and he clearly read Biden for the weak brain dead loser he is. 

Second, let's to a bit of history here.  We have to ask why is war always the answer for the Russians? Recently I read this great piece, Perpetual Russian Wars, where the author quoted  the Russian War Minister General Kuropatkin in 1900 to Emperor Nicholas II:

Your Imperial Majesty! Throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, Russia spent 128 years at war… Of those, only 5 were defensive wars; all the rest—aggressive campaigns… The foreign wars lasted more than 67 years of continuous fighting; the defensive wars lasted 2 years and 1 month. The rest, 121 military operations, were waged beyond the borders of the empire.

He then goes on to show that was the trend of the Soviets, albeit Stalin and his cabal was far  more vicious than the Czar.  When Hitler was scaring the world with his aggression, the Soviets were attacking Finland, the Baltics, and then split Poland with Hitler.  In the mere 73 year existence of the Soviet Union they conducted 25 wars.  Before Finland, the Baltics, Poland, Germany, Japan, they went to war over the Spanish Revolution.    Then Afghanistan, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, and it's clear Russian leadership had worldwide ambitions, and while those ambitions are now thwarted, the mentality still exists.  So, one has to ask why? Because Russia can only exist in a state of war.  The author goes on to say:

Looking for a rational explanation is pointless. Russia has always acted irrationally, without any clear benefit and almost always to its detriment. The root of all its imperial wars should perhaps be studied through the lens of psychology or even psychiatry, which is not what I intend to do in this essay. My aim is much simpler: to draw attention to the ultimate goal of Russia’s current war against Ukraine.

At first glance, the goal seems obvious: seizing its territory and resources, and enslaving the population. A seemingly standard objective, like so many wars of conquest throughout history. But it’s not that simple; in fact, it’s the wrong answer, because it immediately raises the same question again: why?  Will it extract Ukraine’s natural resources? But Russia already has more natural wealth than it can swallow..........

The second question is, what's their long term plans for Ukraine?  None.... they have no plan for Ukraine.  If Russia wins they will occupy a destroyed nation they can't afford to fix, but war is easier that building a viable economy, and that would mean the governing cabal would have to start giving up on centralized control, opening up their society to real democracy, with freedom of speech, and individualized economic ideas, and since:

Waging war is far easier than building the prosperity of one’s country. War demands centralized control, a vertical power structure, no democracy, and no freedom of thought or action. War is a convenient excuse for every problem. War allows failure to be shifted to the “enemy,” whether external or internal.  

The heart of the problem is the inability, or unwillingness, to shift to stable economic principles in order for the corrupt tyrannous few to hold power.  That’s insightful! I’ve read a lot of Russian history and yet that was a foundational concept I never thought of before this.

The author says [an] “enslaved” Ukraine will turn into a permanent festering wound of sabotage, guerrilla warfare, and ultimately, another financial sinkhole, where Russian budget funds will drain away like water into a sewer."  

While I agree about the economics I disagree there will be sabotage or guerrilla warfare to any important degree because there are no good guys in this mess.  Putin and Zelenskyy are two peas in a corrupt pod.  In my view at this point Ukrainians want the war to end, and whether it's Putin or Zelenskyy who is in charge is arguably immaterial to the majority of Ukrainians.  Think about this. Does it really matter if you have a corrupt Ukrainian leadership running the nation, or a corrupt Russian leadership?  Neither nation is free, and after this is over, neither nation will be free afterward.

Then there are people like former Vice President Pence who claims if Russia wins in Ukraine they will attack a NATO country.  No, Russia will not attack a NATO country, including the Baltic nations or Finland.   Russia doesn't have the military, economic, demographic, or the industrial wherewithal to attack any NATO nation, all of which I will be addressing in my next post on what is fallaciously being called a "peace process".