An Analysis: Senate Race 2024 and More

By Rich Kozlovich

There are 33 United States Senate seats up for election in 2024. There are 3 Independent seats (who always caucus with the Democrats, which is why the Democrats have a majority in the Senate) 20 open Democrats, and 10 Republicans.  That seemingly gives the Republicans an edge, 23 Democrat/Independents, versus 10 Republican seats up for grab. That's pretty good odds, but let's face it, has there ever been a time when Republicans couldn't snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory? 

Democrat/Independent Seats

1. Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema. She's toast in Arizona's Democrat politics, and is now an Independent.  Kari Lake will beat which ever Democrat is chosen in her place, provided they can stop the corrupt and massive amount of that's gone on in Arizona, which is why she didn't get elected Governor. I list it as going Republican. *Update, 3/5/24:  Sinema has dropped out. (R)
2. California, Dianne Feinstein's Seat. This is California, no Republican can get elected to the Senate from that state, so there's really nothing to analyze here except to note Pencil Neck Schiff isn't doing all that well. Will stay Democrat. *Update, 3/5/24: Republican Garvey leads in polls with 27%, but that lead is against three Democrats, who in combination represent 52% of the voters, and Garvey will not get any of that 52%.  So, unless there's a scandal, and that's a very real possibility, Schiff will win.  But either way, California will still go, (D)
3. Connecticut, Chris Murphy. He's being challenged by a relative unknown, Gerry Smith. Republicans in Connecticut rarely get over 43% of the vote. There are two other Republicans making noise, but they have tens of dollars and Murphy has millions of dollars. Will stay Democrat. (D) 
4. Delaware Tom Carper,  is retiring, and as far as I can tell the Democrat candidates are Lisa Blunt Rochester, and Pamela Brown, and the Republicans have two running, Eric Hansen, and William Taylor. If Delaware wasn't a New England state, I would rate this 50/50. This is Delaware. Joe Biden's corrupt empire, and it will go Democrat. (D) 
5. Hawaii, Mazie Hirono. As far as I can tell, she's running unopposed. Stays Democrat (D) 
6. Maine, Angus King, is an Independent, which means he caucuses with the Democrats. There are two Democrats running against him, Natasha Alcala and David Costello. The Republican running is Demi Kouzounas, but she's been one of those responsible for getting Rona McDaniel elected as head of the RNC. King will get re-elected. (I/D) 
7. Maryland, Ben Cardin, is retiring and as of right now there are six Democrats, one Progressive, two Independents (which actually means there are nine Democrats), and four Republicans. Initially I thought this would stay Democrat, but Maryland Republican Larry Hogan Announces Senate Bid in Blow to Democrats.  (R) 
8. Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren,  is facing Louis Marino (L) Brandon James Griffin (Workers Party) Shiva Ayyadurai (Independent) and four Republicans, Zakhai Akiba, Robert Antonellis, Rebekah Etique, and Aaron Packard.  Warren will be the Democrat nominee, she will win, and Massachusetts will stay Democrat. (D)
9. Michigan, Debbie Stabenow. There are a few third party show ups, and two Republicans. This could go either way, but this is a state that's still passing gun laws SCOTUS has shot down in principle and/or practice, and given the massive and ubiquitous amount of , Stabenow will most likely get it.  Update 3/12/24:  It appears Donald Trump has endorsed a RINO, a Deep State NeoCon RINO named Mike Rogers.  Will he win over Stabenow? In my opinion....No... (D)
10. Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, has one Democrat running against her, and five Republicans. Berman will be the Republican nominee.  Don't let Klobuchar's cute pictures fool you.  She's a nasty human being, but she's going to win anyway. (D) 
11. Montana, Jon Tester, is the Democrat nominee, and there are four Republicans running.  I gave this a 50/50 until Tim Sheey entered the race.   Donald Trump Endorses Tim Sheehy for Senate in Montana  Exclusive — Montana Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy: Trump’s Endorsement ‘Great Honor’.  This could still go either way, but I'm going to give this to the Republicans.  In this April 10th Update: Tester is caught lying about his support for Biden and illegal immigration.  Democrat Jon Tester Attempts to Distance Himself from Biden in Ad. Tester twice voted against amendments that would have provided funds to U.S. Customs and Border Protection for narcotic and opioid detection activities — once in March 2021 and again in August 2022.  I said this could go either way, but I'm now thinking this will go Republican.  (R)
    
12. Nevada, Jacky Rosen. She has one Democrat running against her, Michael Schaefer, and ten Republicans fighting for the Republican nomination, spending a lot of money fighting each other. Ya really gotta hand it to those Republicans. They really know how to come together to defeat an adversary. This is, in my opinion, a really shaky conclusion, but I'm giving this to the Republicans. (R) Update 4/4/24: We Now Have Another 'Toss-Up' Senate Race.  I already called this for the Republicans, with trepidation, but I think that prediction is now stronger! Update 4/18/24: Nevada: Veteran Sam Brown (R) has a different perspective from those of other pollsters. His internal polling shows him easily winning the nomination for Senate to run against Sen. Jacky Rose.  I'm sticking with my pick.  (R)
13. New Jersey, Robert Menendez. Ya gotta give this guy credit for brass. With all the corruption surrounding him like wolves trying to take down an old and weak buffalo, you'd think he'd go off into the sunset. But....nooooo... He's running to retain his seat. However, there are six Democrats running against him, and two Republicans. Of course, this is New Jersey, another East Coast Land of the Lost, so it really doesn't matter, New Jersey is staying Democrat. The only question is will Menendez be the nominee, and will he be in jail before or after the election? (D) 
14. New Mexico, Martin Heinrich has two independents, two Democrats, and six Republicans running against him. He's a bit of a mystery to me. Actually I never heard of him before this, but he's pure Democrat in all things.  Which clearly demonstrates he has issues. But this is New Mexico where they're a major oil producing state that votes for a Senator who believes in global warming being manmade, and want's to stop using fossil fuels, demonstrating the general IQ in New Mexico is almost as low as it is in California. This will go Democrat.  They deserve this loser, but unfortunately the rest of us have to suffer with them. (D)
15. New York, Kirsten Gillibrand has three independents, five Democrats, which I find interesting since she's another pure Democrat who never saw a leftist narrative or position she couldn't embrace, so what can the Democrats and Independents possibly use against her that would make the leftist nitwits in New York choose them over her? She also has four Republicans running against her, which really doesn't matter. She gets the nod, and gets re-elected. (D) 
16. Ohio, Sherrod Brown has a real problem.  He has three Republicans running against him and all three have a good chance to beat him.  Here's my take on that race and I think Republicans will choose Bernie Moreno because the contrasts between him, Brown and the other candidates is stark, and the endorsements are piling up, including Donald Trump. (R) 
17. Pennsylvania, Bob Casey.  Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa.) resigned from his congressional seat after it was revealed that he had engaged in an extramarital affair. The scandal was compounded by the fact that Rep. Murphy, a staunch defender of the pro-life movement, reportedly encouraged his mistress to get an abortion when they thought she might be pregnant, this resulted in Casey being picked to replace him. Casey is a pure Democrat who never saw a far left item he wasn't in love with.  He's also popular in Pa. for reasons I don't understand, with one Democrat and six Republicans running for that seat.  Casey will win. (D)
    
18. Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse has one Democrat, two independents and two Republicans running. He's a pure Democrat, and this is Rhode Island, he's going to be re-elected. (D) 
19. Vermont, Bernie Sanders has been their guy in Vermont for decades in one form or the other in spite of his views and ideas are blatantly treasonous. He'll be reelected. (D) 
20. Virginia, Tim Kaine.  There are no Democrats running against him, but there are three Independents and here we go again.....Ten republicans.  Ten mind you, how much money will be wasted there?  Kaine is as far a left lunatic as there is, and I have no idea what Virginians see in him.  This can go either way, and I find it so confusing, I'm going to give this a 50/50.  (D/R)
21. Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin, Local NGOs conspiring with Feds to ‘resettle’ Somalis behind the backs of the people and the elected representative.  (D) 
22. Washington, Maria Cantwell has three Democrats and four Republicans running against her, but this is Washington. A state that thinks riots by Antifa, BLM, and any other insane leftist group that's killing, raping, and burning are mostly peaceful.  Whether she gets re-elected or not is immaterial, this state will continue to stink up Congress with a far left Democrat.  (D)
    
23. West Virginia, Joe Manchin, is done, and isn't running. Like Mitt Romney, he read the tea leaves.  There are seven Republicans, which I find fascinating since a very popular former W.Va. Governor Jim Justice is now running, and the clear pick.  There are three Democrats and one Independent.  I'm giving this to the Republicans, and specifically ex-Governor Jim Justice.  (R)
    

Republican Seats

1. Florida, Rich Scott. Talk about a hot race, there are 6 Republicans, 11 Democrats, and 6 also ran parties in this race.  Counting Scott, that's 24 people running for that one Senate seat.  Remarkable! Scott is a pure conservative, and it seems to me he's not a party favorite, and given he's publicly stated the Republican leadership, in particular Mitch McConnell, is destroying the nation, which is understandable, but it's also clear he doesn't care.  Nor is he a DeSantis favorite as he endorsed Trump over DeSantis.  What will the voters think about his stands?  We'll see.  I like him, but either way this will go Republican.  (R)
   
2. Indiana, Mike Braun isn't running. but there are 2 independents, 1 Libertarian, 5 Democrats, and 6 Republicans running.  Who knows?  But I'm giving this to the Republicans simply because this is Indiana. (R)
3. Mississippi, Roger Wicker has 1 Democrat and believe it or not, 2 Republicans running against him, with a combined war chest of all three being about 25% of Wicker's.  Okay, so, I'm gong to go out on a limb here and say.....Wicker gets this. (R)
   
4. Missouri, Josh Hawley.  Believe it or not, he actually has 1 Republican running against him.  There are also 4 Democrats and 1 Independent and 1 from the Socialist Equality Party.  Who knew.  Hawley gets it.  (R) 
5. Nebraska, Deb Fischer has 1 independent and two Democrats running against her. She's interesting as she supports term limits for Congress. She's also right on guns, border control, global warming, but shaky on other issues.  She'll win. (R)
   
6. N. Dakota, Kevin Cramer has no Republicans running against him, 1 independent and 1 Democrat.  In a state with such a small population of three quarters of a million people, that seems normal.  But I see no reason this isn't going Republican. (R)
   
7. Tennessee Marsha Blackburn is facing 4 Democrats. 1 candidate, Wisdom Zerit Teklay, from the "Wisdom People Party".  Imagine that. No Republicans.  She wins.  (R)
8. Texas, Ten Cruz has 1 Green party, 9 Democrats, and surprisingly, 2 Republicans running against him.  George Soros is totally committed to turn this election over to Democrats, and I'm expecting to see a ton of problems as a result, but in spite of all that, Cruz wins.  (R) 
   
9. Utah, Mitt Romney, "A Born Loser From the Start, it's high time he stepped down". That was the title of an article in 2020 by Lloyd Billingsley calling Romney “a political outcast..............useful idiot for the defeated Democrats and a traitor to the party he once led in a presidential election”. Also saying this "gutless, sanctimonious buffoon should remove himself from the Senate. As Oliver Cromwell put it,  “In the name of God, go!”  Well, he's done after January 2025 since he's not running again. He read the tea leaves and finds the people of his state agree with Billingsley, and Oliver Cromwell.  As of now there is one Democrat and one Independent running.  But.....get this....there are twelve Republicans.  Twelve!  I just have to say this again.....ya just gotta give it to those Republicans, they really know how to come together to defeat an enemy. (R)
   
10. Wyoming, John Barrasso has 1 Republican, and as far as I can tell, there are no Democrats or any other party candidates running against him. Ergo, this will continue to be a Republican seat.  (R) 

So, my conclusion for the Senate is there will be at least five Democrat seats that will go Republican, one that may still go Republican and the Republican seats will remain Republican.  If this goes the way I'm predicting what happens on the first day the Senate meets to decide on the party's leadership will be more than interesting. I'm not just expecting to see an explosion, I'm expecting to see a nuclear bomb go off.

But there's so much more to this election.

On February 13, 2024 Lewis Dovland published this piece on American Thinker, Don’t be fooled by apparent Democrat incompetence in the election, saying: 

Are the wheels really beginning to come off the Democrat’s chances of keeping the Presidency in 2024, or is it a ruse? It appears they are behind the eight-ball as to having a winning presidential candidate, but are they really? Do Not Be Fooled............The Democrats eat, sleep, and breathe hard-core politics. Yet their national ‘bench’ of candidates seems empty, seemingly opening the door to a Republican president who could undo their progressive Marxist gains since 2008. Still, they still have some aces up their sleeves and are playing several angles.

I've said in the past the bench of the Democrat party is so weak and shallow, if they're were a professional baseball team they'd be in the basement in the standings.  Which Dovland delves into noting that the Democrats have a conundrum as a party.  They have an incompetent, corrupt, and dumb President who has completely lost what little he had, and a VP who never had it at all, and what to do about it.  Now, there are potentially optional candidates including:

The oleaginous Gavin Newsome..... Valerie Jarrett, Susan Rice, Eric Holder, Hillary, and the Obamas. 

UPDATE 2/26/24:  I would like to draw everyone's attention to this new Democrat Governor of Maryland, Wes Moore! I think he's worth putting on your watch list. He's impressive on a lot of levels, including his record, and so too is his family. He could be the dark horse candidate that's sprung on the Democrats at the convention.  RK

All that's been articulated by a lot of people, but the fact is that "bench" is weak and shallow to the point of being meaningless.  Trying to convince either Biden or Kamala to step away is like spitting in the wind and expecting not to get wet. Both dumb as dirt with egos so large there's insufficient room left in their brains for intelligence, or understanding.  It seems to me Biden will be the nominee because they now don't have a choice, with this exception, which the author discusses saying:

The Democrat primaries are of zero value; the real candidate will be named at the convention.

A nominee named at the convention is exactly what I think will happen, they have no other choice. But all their options are at best weak bench relief pitchers, and not a one of them is a closer and a winner.......except for voter fraud.  

It took massive voter fraud to make Biden President, and things are so bad for the Democrats they will perpetuate an even greater effort at voter fraud in 2024, and I believe it will be so massive they'll make 2020 look legitimate. 

But this administration has been so abysmal, I don't think they can muster enough to keep the White House, but the down card may be different, and that will be the key.  So, here's what I think the back room boys will do.

I think they'll become convinced the White House is gone, and they will do all they can to keep the Senate and take back the House.  So, let's do a little recap. There are 20 Democrat seats, 3 Independent seats, which is in reality Democrat seats, and 10 Republican seats up for grabs in the Senate in 2024.

It appears to me, as of right now anyway, the Republican seats will remain Republican, even if there are different faces.  As I pointed out at the beginning, of those 23 D/I seats, I believe there will be 5 that will go Republican and one more that's 50/50.  Right now there are 48 Democrats, 3 Independents, and 49 Republicans in the Senate.  Taking five seats which will give the Republicans 54 seats, and the majority.

I haven't done an analysis on the House, but the Republican House is filled with brainless, gutless, and feckless nitwits, which seeing it took two attempts to impeach Mayorkas, who has clearly guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, clearly demonstrates that.  As a result, they could lose the House. 

That means the Democrats will have to focus on the Senate to keep it, and work to take back the House, which I think the Republicans are more than capable of doing with their fecklessness.   So we can expect all the chicanery and the massive voter fraud that will occur in 2024 to focus on the down card. Not enough to keep the White House, but enough to take the Congress.

The really big take away is the Democrats are a disaster, and are clearly working to destroy America, and it's institutions, and more are coming to that conclusion. The question is: Can Democrats muster enough fraudulent votes to overcome a massive voter rebellion against their party? Will there be a massive voter revolt against Democrats?   

As the journalist in Charlies Wilson's War said: We'll See!