Ted Cruz wins Iowa. Donald Trump wins New Hampshire. Then what? It’s a question that Republicans are beginning to ponder this week as they travel here for Thursday’s presidential debate and the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting.
Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where a consensus among insiders has started to cement projecting Cruz and Trump victories, South Carolina remains an electoral enigma. The Palmetto State is more unpredictable than in past cycles due to a host of factors, including a larger and more ideologically fragmented field. But Republicans here say four candidates have both the money and organization to survive until the February 20 primary, and all four have competitive claims in the state: Trump sits atop the polls; Cruz has the most enthusiastic followers; Marco Rubio boasts the most experienced organization; and Jeb Bush enjoys the deepest reservoir of donor loyalty. Yet none possess traditional x-factors, such as deep southern roots or military experience, that would make them a natural favorite.
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