I just finished reading The Accidental Super Power, The Next Generation of American Preeminence and The Coming
Global Disorder, by Peter Zeihan. One thing I think can be
agreed upon - he’s clearly brilliant - and I think his analysis of the internal
workings of the world’s nations is spot on. From the history, to the
demographics, to the geography and the paradigms they create, his work explains
so much of why nation's leaders are doing what they’re doing, especially the
Chinese and the Russians. Many of these views are views I’ve expressed in the
past but never with the depth and expanse of information he’s put together.
I’ve known about Bretton Woods for years, and I thought I knew a lot about
Bretton Woods. I was wrong! He’s added dimensions to this I never grasped or
organized it in the way as has this author.
Since I’ve been reading this book I’ve asked everyone if they ever heard
of Bretton Woods, and invariable almost no one has, and those that have heard
of it had no idea what it was all about. This is a book that needs to be read
by anyone with an interest in history, policy, current events and long range
thinking.
I agree with his analysis that Bretton Woods will end soon and a gradual
international contraction by America I believe is beyond doubt. But the reader
should keep some things in mind.
First, prediction is very difficult – especially about the future! As he
talks about the end of the Bretton Woods era you will see there’s
understandable difficulty in defining when and to what degree it will occur.
Secondly, there is little discussion on the impact of Islamist
immigrants will make on countries like Russia and all the European countries that
are breeding themselves out of existence. Russia is losing ethnic Russians at
such a startling rate Russia’s future existence as we know it is in doubt. What
happens when or if Islamists outnumber the ethnic Europeans or their numbers
become so large civil war erupts all over Europe?
Third, just as nature abhors a vacuum, so to does “power”. If America
withdraws to the extent he’s predicting these countries will demand someone
step in to save them. That will be the United Nations. He ignores that as a
potential. He’s far too smart not to see that potential, especially since there
are so many efforts by so many, especially in the E.U., to expand the U.N.’s
power and reach, as is outlined in any number of U.N. treaty initiatives such
as Agenda 21 and the Law of the Sea Treaty, which would give it income of its
own. Therefore I have to conclude he deliberately left that out. And I have to
ask – why?
If all occurs as he’s predicting – and I think much of it will – he has
to see the U.N. as a much bigger player in the future. He outlines how the
Bretton Woods era will end, but the goal has been and, will still be, to
prevent the very conflicts and wars he discusses and to keep the sea lanes
open. So will the concept of Bretton Woods end or will it merely be transferred
to the U.N.? Will the U.N. be the power broker nations will want in the enforcement
arena, including giving them taxing power, their own military, and use of deep
sea naval power via the right to control American, British and Japanese naval
forces? I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I also think “every" country - including the U.S. - will buy into that. As one author pointed out -
there's a difference between a global government and global governance.
That much control exercised by the most corrupt incompetent organization
the world has ever known is a scary thought, but his long range rosy picture of
America’s economic future has that one big cloud over it. If the U.N. gets the
authority I’m describing they will find ways to confiscate all the economic
renewal generated by America and give it to the rest of the world. He has to
see that potential, and yet he ignored it. I have to wonder why?
Even with all the caveats I’ve listed I really think this book is
foundationally important to mold everyone’s thinking and views. This is a must
read!
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