Russia’s ethnic
Russian demographic pyramid is upside down. Ethnic Russians are breeding
themselves out of existence. The demographic most likely to have children are
the 15 through 35 age group, and that segment of the ethnic Russian population has
serious problems with HIV, and multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis. The average
male mortality is 59. The educational system has collapsed and is incapable of
maintaining a skilled labor force. Russia is a land with low capital generation
capability, limiting funds for infrastructure, education, market formation,
productivity and the effectiveness of their military. This is a nation that has
no real natural barriers to help defend them. Russia, from the Imperial days,
has always needed buffers and they obtained those buffers by conquering the
smaller ethnic groups and nations surrounding them. Those nations are no longer
subservient to the Russians since the end of the Soviet Union. Putin isn’t in a
position to attack too many people in too many places for very long.
Russia is a “horde
land” country that was overrun by Attila the Hun, Genghis Kahn and Tamerlane.
In order to defend the Russian nation he needs to be able to man - 1) the
Baltic coast, 2) the Polish Gap, 3) the Bessarabia Gap, 4) the Black Sea, 5)
the coastal strips of the Caucasus, 6) the Central Asian Corridor and 7) the
Tia-Altay Gap. As of 2014 they could only control three, so for Sweden and
Finland to join NATO (take a look at a map) his Baltic Sea access corridor
becomes a massive indefensible border.
He desperately needs to control the Ukraine
because along with Moldavia they control the Bessarabia Gap, which would prevent
a "resurgent" Turkey from attacking. Remember the Ottoman Empire
was a threat to the Russians for generations and controlled the
Balkans for hundreds of years. The Ukraine is also a source of grain and energy
capital. Putin needs the Ukraine.
But Putin doesn’t
have the population, the capital or the capability to do it all so everything
he does is based on that fact. That leaves him three options. The old tried and
true Soviet obsession with bluff and bluster and getting states just outside
his buffer zone to support him by supporting them, and re-dominating old buffer states, but that's a risky tactic and may actually hasten Russia's collapse. Once that's understood everything he's doing is understandable.
Demographically in five years
Russia will start to really disintegrate and in ten years it may not be a
country as we know it, and by 2040 the ethnic Russians – at current birth
rates– will be a mere sliver of a population in their own country - and Putin
knows it – and by that time it may not even be their country, which is even more frightening. Source
information, The Accidental Super Power by Peter Zeihan.
Russian ambassador: If Sweden joins NATO, therewill be 'consequences' - Russia's ambassador to Sweden has warned the country
of the potential military "consequences" associated with joining NATO
in an interview with the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, The Local reports. Russian Ambassador Viktor Tatarintsev
told Dagens Nyheter that Russia does not have any military plans against
Sweden, in line with Stockholm's alliance neutrality. But Tatarintsev warned
that this could change if Sweden were to join the NATO alliance. “I don't think
it will become relevant in the near future, even though there has been a
certain swing in public opinion. But if it happens there will be
countermeasures," Tatarintsev said according to a translation from The Local.
"Putin pointed out that there will be consequences, that Russia will have
to resort to a response of the military kind and reorientate our troops and
missiles," the ambassador said. "The country that joins NATO needs to
be aware of the risks it is exposing itself to." .....
Keeping an Eye on the Russian Financial Market - Those promoting good news from Russia are focused on the fact that
Russia's equity indices are among the best performing in the world this year.
The RTS Index is up 11 percent while MICEX is 18 percent ahead of where it
started the year. That compares with a loss of 16 percent for the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index (MSCI EM) and a drop of 4.5 percent for the U.S. S and P 500
index. The bad news is that the main reason the indices have performed
relatively well is because valuations were already very low coming into this
year as foreign investors, i.e. those who did not need to ... more»
What a Russian Vision for Syria Means for America - President Obama’s worldwide “Troop Talk” at
Fort Meade on Sept. 11 was wide-ranging, covering foreign policy topics as well
as reflections on the difficulty of being president and a family man
simultaneously. But what stands out is what he said regarding Syria and the
role Russia is currently playing in that tense situation. His remarks revealed
an uncanny ability to stay on message no matter how much reality he has to
ignore. Obama told the troops that the United States and Russia have converging
interests in Syria in fighting the Islamic State.,... more»
How to Resolve the War in Ukraine- As the fall of 2015 unfolds, the
Russia-Ukraine crisis is not generating nearly as much news attention as it
created throughout most of 2014. But in fact, it is still very serious—which is
why the incoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford,
told Congress in his recent confirmation hearings in July of this year that no
issue concerned him more. The hope that the so-called Minsk II agreement,
negotiated last winter, will produce a durable solution seems very unlikely.
That plan called for ….more»
Will Putin Exchange Ukraine for Syria? - Will Syria become a second Afghanistan for
Russia? Is it wise for Russia to intervene in that conflict? Rumors are
circulating that Moscow is planning a face-saving maneuver whereby it
gradually“hands over” the Donbass in fulfillment of the Minsk agreement while
aiding the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition in Syria to get back on good
terms with the West. The plan sounds good in theory, but it looks unfeasible in
practice…
The Putin Solution – What we’re watching emerge is novel—not
Russian ambition, of course, but American indifference.
When
the U.S. Goes Weak, Russia Strikes-
War on the Rocks Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is piling on military
support for the faltering Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. And Washington is
shocked — as Washington’s always shocked when the predictable-but-distasteful
becomes reality. Unlike the current U.S. administration, Putin doesn’t abandon
embattled allies. What’s more, Russian leaders, whether in Soviet or
neo-imperialist guise, always strike when the United States and the West are
distracted or weak.
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