Ohio Gov. John
Kasich’s Obamacare expansion shattered enrollment projections in its first
year, and reliance on the welfare program keeps growing.
There were 634,526
Ohioans enrolled in the Obamacare expansion in September — an increase of more
than 140,000 since January — according to the Ohio Department of Medicaid.
Pitching Obamacare
expansion to the Ohio General Assembly in 2013, the Kasich administration
estimated 447,000 would enroll by fiscal year 2020. Actual enrollment exceeded
620,000 by the time fiscal year 2015 ended in June.
Kasich implemented
Obamacare expansion after vetoing a legislative ban
on the policy, despite publication of a National Bureau of Economic Research
study finding Tennessee’s employment increased
when the state removed working-age adults from Medicaid.
The Foundation for
Government Accountability and other free-market groups warned against extending
Medicaid benefits — which come with no work requirements — to every Ohioan
whose income is at or below 138 percent of the poverty line.
FGA expects budget-busting enrollment in Ohio and
elsewhere will deter more states from chasing Obamacare expansion funding.
“More able-bodied
adults have signed up for Gov. Kasich’s unilateral ObamaCare expansion than the
administration thought would ever sign up,” FGA research director Jonathan
Ingram said in an email to Ohio Watchdog.
“That is costing
taxpayers billions more than expected, but the problem goes beyond that,”
Ingram said. “Kasich’s expansion will also have a lasting, negative impact on
the state’s economy.”
Ohio’s employment
and labor force, Ingram added, “may worsen over the coming years, as Medicaid discourages
work and, ultimately, shrinks the economy. Research suggests that in Ohio, as
many as 93,000 able-bodied adults could drop out of the labor force as a result
of Kasich’s expansion.”
In May testimony
before the Ohio Senate, the Kasich administration reported only 43 percent of
Ohio’s Obamacare expansion enrollees have jobs. The governor’s office did not
respond to Ohio Watchdog questions about enrollment.
Kasich staffers
weren’t the only Obamacare advocates to undershoot the target with their projections
for Medicaid expansion enrollment.
Ohio’s
pro-Obamacare newspapers widely disseminated a 2013 Health Policy Institute of
Ohio study including enrollment estimates
from Ohio State University researchers and the left-leaning Urban Institute.
UI projected
380,313 Ohioans would enroll in Obamacare expansion by fiscal year 2015. OSU
researchers’ fiscal year 2015 estimate of 550,050 was low compared to actual
June enrollment, but high relative to the monthly average for the full year.
OSU’s initial
estimate of 609,264 enrollees in fiscal year 2016 is already falling short —
but not as short as UI’s 2016 estimate of 497,799.
HPIO published
revised enrollment projections last year, and communications manager Nick
Wiselogel told Ohio Watchdog the organization will likely review enrollment
trends over the coming months.
Because of
backdated eligibility for Ohioans whose health care Medicaid will cover even
though they haven’t enrolled in the program yet, September’s enrollment is
likely to climb in future Ohio Department of Medicaid caseload reports.
In May, ODM
reported there were 509,771 Obamacare expansion enrollees the preceding month.
By the time the September caseload report was released, backdated eligibility
had increased April enrollment to 606,524.
Comparing the
numbers initially reported for each month, Obamacare expansion enrollment has
grown by at least 10,000 per month since April — when the state was in the
process of settling a lawsuit over ODM’s old method for dropping ineligible
enrollees.
As a result of the
lawsuit, ODM now uses a “passive
redetermination” process, checking tax records and other government databases
once a year to confirm Medicaid enrollees still qualify for benefits.
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