Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Election 2016

By Rich Kozlovich

It’s just been announced that Bobby Jindal has dropped out of the 2016 Republican primary race following Perry and Walker. So who’s next? Here’s the way I see it.

Graham is wasted space so I have no idea what he thinks he’s doing, but no matter what he does or doesn’t do – he’s already out whether he says so or not. As for Pataki, Huckabee and Santorum - they will be the next to drop out before the first primary in Iowa on February 1. None of them have anything to say the Republican base wants to hear and no money will be coming their way. Pataki would have been a good Democratic candidate twenty or thirty years ago, but he has nothing to say worth listening to now. Huckabee has some strange ideas and doesn’t seem to have convictions that conservatives are comfortable with or with which he’s consistent. As for Santorum - conservatives have never forgotten or forgiven Santorum for siding with Arlen Specter instead of Pat Toomey a solid conservative.

They will be followed by Kasich, Fiorina, and Christie after the Iowa primary or just before. There’s no money pouring into their campaigns worth mentioning. The debates killed Kasich, who is now viewed as a RINO. With one conservative writer thinking he’s strange ..... and strange isn't he word he used.

Christie has way too much baggage, and his aggressive bully boy approach will wear thin to the base when he has to outline his solutions. He’s clearly a RINO. Fiorina will be out around the same time. She was a novel counterweight to Hillary, but the conservative base is concerned about her rotating positions over the years. What does she really believe and can she really be the Commander in Chief is the common refrain?

That leaves Bush, Cruz, Paul, Rubio and Trump. Paul will stick to the end even if he’s not on ballots in a number of states in hopes of influencing the end candidates. Bush is toast, but because his campaign has a lot of money – money he’s burning through fast to raise more money – not a good indicator of a successful campaign – and he will be out after New Hampshire on February 9. He will lose in Iowa and it seems to me New Hampshire will crush him. However – Iowa and New Hampshire are very different states. He may survive and even win one but if that happens he'll be crushed in South Carolina and will be out. No more money for him.

The final four will be Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Trump and Bush as a long shot left after New Hampshire. But after South Carolina Bush will definately be out and either Trump, Carson or both will be on the ropes and Nevada will be next, but Nevada is only a minor win or loss. The big deal will be Super Tuesday on March 1 with Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia.
 
By Super Tuesday these love affairs with “outsiders” will have worn thin, especially for Trump, and the electorate will be far more interested and attentive! They will be far less emotional and more intellectual in their approach to the primaries, and will be more concerned in what they really believe, what they intend to do and promote, what policies they will try to put in place to fix the deficit, pay down the national debt, protect America from terrorists, and how to handle illegal immigration and how their plans will be implemented.

Carson is probably the most liked candidate to appear on the political scene for decades, but being a doctor and a good guy doesn’t necessarily overcome the lack of political experience and judgment, and there are concerns by conservatives he’s another Colin Powell conservative. Not a good comparison, especially when that view comes from a black conservative writer. Trump will shove his foot into his mouth one too many times, and let’s face it – he has no ideas or he would have shared them already. After Super Tuesday both Trump and Carson will be gone leaving Rubio and Cruz.

As for the Democrats - Hillary has to be the most unlikable candidate to ever run for the Presidency in my life. I don't think even the Democrats like or trust her. As for Bernie Sanders - he may be a loon, but he's not afraid to say exactly what he believes, even when it's loony, and that’s what so attractive to the Democratic base – which may be even farther left than Bernie! Like Trump – he’s been a perpetual candidate – both with huge egos, both obnoxious, both with big mouths, and both of whom never dreamed they would go this far.  I think the difference between Trump and Bernie is this - I think Bernie's going to win the Democratic nomination!


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