By Rich Kozlovich
I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, which is a paid subscription site worth the expense. In my opinion the best analysis regarding the Middle East comes from GF's Hilal Khasan. His analysis of what goes on there always lays a foundation of historical events that lead to understanding the events occurring now in real time.
His recent offering, The Coming War Between Israel and Hezbollah, offers worthwhile insights, but since it's a subscription article, I'll just outline my take on it for you.
Hamas attacked Israel believing Hezbollah's claims of military readiness, and Iran's support. Afterward, Iran found a way to walk back their support, and Hezbollah's readiness was bluster. Hezbollah allegedly possesses over 200,000 missiles. According to Hilal that's far more than many NATO countries possess, but the fact is, most of them are worthless short range and inaccurate. The few quality missiles they have they're not using because to use them is to expose them. To expose them is an invitation to the Israeli air force to destroy them. My question is: How does such a group acquire over 200,000 rockets?
Hezbollah isn't a nation, it's not a recognized legal entity in any way. Neither is Hamas, so why is everyone acting like they are? These groups are terrorists, and terrorists are criminals, organized vile, deadly criminals. Criminals who should be given no quarter and no mercy, including the nation's that shelter them. But what about the nation that keeps sponsoring them, Iran? If their military movements are under the direction of Iran, shouldn't Iran be held accountable? What I find a bit interesting is the Iranians are Persians who look down on Arabs, and Hamas and Hezbollah are Arabs.
Recently, as in the past, Israel targeted Hezbollah and Hamas leaders right in the heart of a "Hezbollah stronghold" and even in the de facto capital of Hezbollah, Damascus, making their claims of protection look ridiculous. Hezbollah was outraged and vented their spleen saying they would respond, and they did, costing them the lives of five of their people, and no Israeli casualties.
Hezbollah finds itself being hoisted on it's own petard. They must support Hamas or they have no justification for it's existence, and if they attack Israel, Israel will crush them and drive them entirely out of South Lebanon. They were crushed decades ago but Iran keep them alive in order to "project regional power". Thank you Jimmy Carter!
Truth be told it's their big hope the US will negotiate some agreement, especially regarding border issues, and a cease fire. Any agreement for a cease fire will be considered a victory for Hamas and Hezbollah keeping them alive for just a little longer. And if that occurs Hilal notes:
"Hezbollah will remain a defining figure in domestic Lebanese politics. But the long game is approaching an end."
In my mind I can only wonder just how much longer Iran will be able to get away with all this before someone decides they need a really good smack in the mouth, and work to overthrow that insane government, and who knows, maybe even bring back the Shah's family.
Wouldn't that be a real kick in the pants for Jimmy Carter.
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