Saturday, December 19, 2015

Study: Current climate models misrepresent El Niño

By Anthony Watts

From the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Current El Nono SST map, source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif
Current El Nino SST map, source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif
Clues to the fundamental physics of El Niño from millennia-old corals and clams

An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Niño, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on weather, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and air quality worldwide. The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Niños, and vice versa.

“The idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it’s appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it’s not that simple,” said Julien Emile-Geay, lead author of a study contradicting the models and assistant professor of Earth Sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. His study was published on December 14 in the journal Nature Geoscience .....To Read More.....

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