From Benny Peiser's Global Warming Policy Forum

The U.S. Has Too Much Oil And Nowhere To Put It

US Shale Shows No Sign Of Slowing Dow

 

As oil prices have crashed, from more than $100 a barrel last summer to below $50 now, big trading companies are storing their crude in hopes of selling it for higher prices down the road. With U.S. production continuing to expand, that’s led to the fastest increase in U.S. oil inventories on record. For most of this year, the U.S. has added almost 1 million barrels a day to its stash of crude supplies. As of March 11, nationwide stocks were at 449 million barrels, by far the most ever. Oil investors appear to be coming around to the notion that a lack of storage capacity could lead to another price crash. --Matthew Philips, Bloomberg, 12 March 2015

 

A recent rebound in oil prices is built on flimsy foundations, the International Energy Agency warned Friday, with another sharp fall possible and few signs that cheap fuel was giving growth a real boost. --AFP, 13 March 2015

 

Japan is continuing to re-embrace coal to make up for its lack of nuclear energy, with plans for another power station released Thursday bringing the number of new coal-fired plants announced this year to seven. Before the nuclear accident in March 2011, the environment ministry had essentially blocked the building of new coal-power stations through tighter environmental assessments as Japan sought to meet ambitious greenhouse-gas reduction goals that have since been scrapped. --Mari Iwata, The Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2015

 

Headaches surrounding the permitting process mean Cuadrilla has not fracked a well since 2011. It is not just uncertainty over policy that is casting a shadow over UK shale – explorers must also contend with the grim reality of the European gas market. Demand across the continent has fallen to levels not seen since the 1990s, sending prices in February – traditionally the coldest month of the year – to record lows. Therefore, even if companies succeed in getting gas out of the ground in significant quantities, will anyone be prepared to pay the price needed to make the process commercial? --Interfax Natural Gas Daily, 13 March 2015

 

Global emissions of climate-warming carbon dioxide did not rise last year for the first time in 40 years without the presence of an economic crisis. “This is a real surprise. We have never seen this before,” said IEA chief economist, Fatih Birol, named recently as the agency’s next executive director. --Pilita Clark, Financial Times, 13 March 2015

 

Many investors are attracted to “green” investments by the promise of good returns allied with care for the environment. But there are growing fears that some are being sucked into unsuitable schemes. --Kate Palmer, The Daily Telegraph, 12 March 2015

Conflict Experts Dispute Impact Of Global Warming On National Security

Cliff Asness: Global Warming Isn’t A Danger Anytime Soon

 

Global conflict experts say the Obama administration’s recent focus on climate change as a national security threat may be misguided. “The link between global warming and national security needs is tenuous at best, though the Arctic might be an exception, if [Russian President Vladimir] Putin continues his revanchist ways,” Harvard psychology professor and best-selling author Steven Pinker said in a recent e-mail interview. “Most wars have nothing to do with climate, and vice versa.” --David O. Williams, Real Vail, 11 March 2015

 

One of Wall Street’s most successful hedge fund managers is once again wading into the climate change debate. His conclusion: It’s not as big of a problem as some suggest. --Stephen Gandel, Forbes, 11 March 2015

This essay is not about the science of climate change, it’s about what the data say on their own. In particular, we think it is important to distinguish the level of worry you might have from looking at this chart, versus the level of worry you might have from complex climate models. Yes, over the last 135 years the Earth has warmed, but not nearly to the danger point and if we continue at this pace (the crux of the issue) it won’t become scary until more than 500 years from now. That’s quite a different message from what we’ve read in the articles accompanying the original version of this chart. --Clifford Asness and Aaron Brown, Stumbling On Truth, 10 March 2015

You have to be very careful with averages, they are not as simple as you might think. That thought was uppermost in my mind when I was reading a recent paper in Nature Climate Change. It had been written up by the Press Association (PA) and repeated by the Guardian, I guess that its multitude of environmental reporters-editors-heads had the day off. --Dr David Whitehouse, Global Warming Policy Forum, 12 March 2015

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change () recently circulated an email breathlessly titled, “Governments on Track to Reaching Paris 2015 Universal Climate Agreement — Negotiating Text Officially Published.” This text agreed to for negotiation by the federal government includes a remarkable proposal. Buried deep inside, it proposes an “International Climate Justice Tribunal in order to oversee, control and sanction the fulfilment [sic] of and compliance with the obligations of Annex I and Annex II Parties under this agreement and the [1992 UNFCCC climate treaty].” Translated, this means that even if the Obama administration refuses to call the Paris agreement a treaty, as it already telegraphed its position: A new climate court would hold us to its terms — even the terms of a prior, “voluntary” agreement. --Chris Horner, The Washington Times, 8 March 2015

 

Svante Arrhenius: An Early Prophet Of The ‘Energy Crisis’

Peak Oil Alarm, Energy Crisis, Renewable Hype: A 100 Year Old Scare
 

It was surprising to encounter a book by Svante Arrhenius published in 1919 which contains many very current-sounding ideas on energy topics. Although Svante Arrhenius showed great foresight in many of his comments on energy, he was wrong in some of his most important predictions: America will run out of oil by 1953 at the latest. Coal reserves will be depleted in England within 50 years and in America within 150 years. --Charles G. Moseley, Journal of Chemical Education 55(3) 1978

That so great a scientist as Svante Arrhenius could badly overestimate the energy problems of his time suggests that we should perhaps place more emphasis on using technology to solve our energy problems and less emphasis on bemoaning the difficulty of the problem. --Charles G. Moseley, Journal of Chemical Education 55(3) 1978

Climate change is one of the biggest risks facing the insurance industry, the governor of the Bank of England has said after a former Conservative chancellor dismissed a study on global warming as “green claptrap”. Speaking at the House of Lords, Mark Carney mounted a robust defence of the Bank’s work on the impact of climate change on the insurance industry in the face of claims by Nigel Lawson that it had its priorities wrong. --The Guardian, 11 March 2015

The first question is what does the Bank of England know that the International Energy Agency doesn’t know about the energy sector? The other is, although the economy is now doing very much better, there are a whole lot of remaining problems in the financial sector. Wouldn’t it be better if you focused your attention on those instead of engaging in green claptrap? --Nigel Lawson, House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, 10 March 2015

As in many businesses, the 80-20 rule applies. Sixteen per cent of the wells in operation across North America account for 82% of the oil produced. And, generally speaking, production is up. As producers become more efficient, the number of rigs required to yield the same amount of production naturally drops. Technology is whitewashing old school rules. In many ways, Moore’s Law has finally arrived in the oil patch. As the months unfold, advancements in pad drilling and rig mobility, among other breakthroughs, will only ensure more of the same, rendering rig counts as a measure of industry health obsolete. --Mark Hill, Oil Price, 8 March 2015

After raising the spectre of black swans, the Saudis are taking steps to increase the likelihood of oil continuing as an important source of world energy in 2050. By maintaining production and allowing prices to fall, Saudi Arabia and its allies in effect are starving the black cygnets to death. The implications for those engaged in oil exploration and production, as well as those developing alternatives such as electric cars or renewable fuels, are obvious. Oil prices will be much lower than anticipated. The lower prices will force those who back alternatives to look for larger subsidies or make a greater effort to reduce their costs. --Philip Verleger, Financial Times, 11 March 2015