Tuesday, December 2, 2014

The Difference Between History and Computer Climate Models: One is Factual and One is Faith Based.

By James Marusek

Editor's Note:  Jim sent this short commentary to the Greene County Daily World, which they published a few days ago. I would like to thank him for sending this to me and allowing me to publish it.  Mr. Marusek is a retired U.S. Department of the Navy Nuclear Physicist & Engineer who graciously allowed me to publish his well researched and well reasoned work over the years.  There are other posts from James in Paradigms and Demographics dealing with weather and global warming you may wish to peruse.  They are listed at the end of this short commentary that in no way does justice in demonstrating his vast knowledge in this arena.

I was born in Buffalo, New York; so I am use to large snowfalls.  But the 7-foot deep snowfall last week was extreme even for Buffalo.  So is this just a weather anomaly or the beginning of a trend?

The sun is the major driver of Earth’s climate.  Recently, the sun has been getting very quiet, magnetically.  The monthly “Ap Index” is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth.  It has been referred to as the common yardstick for solar magnetic activity.  From January 1932, when these measurements first began, until September 2005, the average of this parameter is 14.65.  From October 2005 to the present the average is 7.15: a 50% reduction.  The present solar cycle is very similar to the period known as the Dalton Minimum.  If the sun becomes quieter, we might slide into a Solar Grand Minima, such as the Maunder or Sporer Minimum.  These two periods were described as Little Ice Ages: terrible cold and desolate times.

What might the weather look like in Indiana and the Midwest should we enter another Little Ice Age?  That is hard to say because the earliest settlers did not arrive until long after the last Little Ice Age.  But there is a clue.  When our region was first visited by the white man, they discovered vast bone graveyards of buffalo and elk spread throughout the prairies.  They were perplexed and consulted with the Indians who told them approximately 75 years earlier; there was a great winter that swept away these vast herds.  Buffalo and elk are designed for winter survival and any winter that would kill off these vast herds was a winter to be reckoned with.
 
For more information regarding James Maursek and his web site IPMACT, please read my article, Web Site Worth Exploring. Please enjoy!

·         The Dark Side of Deep Ecology,
·         The Mighty Ohio
·         The Sun Has Gone Quiet
·         Kilroy was here

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