Friday, August 14, 2009

Solar “Grand Minima” Threat Analysis

Originally posted on his site, IMPACT on June 3rd, 2009

James A. Marusek, Nuclear Physicist and Engineer, U.S. Department of the Navy, retired

[Abstract] We are approaching a period when the sun is going quiet. In the past, these periods with few sunspots, such as the Dalton Minimum, Maunder Minimum, & Spörer Minimum, produced decades of global cooling, famine and plagues. This paper provides an analysis of the global cooling threat.

I. Solar Cycles

Solar activity, visible by the number of sunspots, varies over a cycle of approximately 11 years. This variation is defined as a solar sunspot cycle. The periodic cycle begins at a solar minimum, peaks at a solar maximum and then falls back down to the next solar minimum. The International Sunspot Index is used to define the beginning and end of each solar cycle. Currently the Earth is in a solar minimum transitioning into Solar Cycle 24.

The Sun undergoes a magnetic pole reversal approximately once every 11 years.

The Sun’s magnetic field is normally dipolar but during solar maximum, quadrupole and octupole components exist as well.It has been suggested that the sunspot cycle is related to the planetary cycle of the four major planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. There are three centers of mass that are of interest, the sun, the major planets, and the solar system. Approximately once every eleven years, the four major planets are grouped ahead of the sun as the solar system moves through galactic space. This causes the sun to occupy a reciprocal position on the opposite side of the solar system’s center of mass. About eleven years later the major planets are grouped behind the sun causing it to occupy a reciprocal position ahead of the solar system’s center of mass.

The sun therefore alternately accelerates as it moves forward through galactic space and then decelerates to occupy a position behind the solar system’s center of mass. All this occurs while the solar system as a whole moves forward through galactic space. The acceleration and deceleration cause the sun to wobble in its path. The wobble creates turbulence in the sun’s interior, which is characterized by changes in sunspot activity.

II. The Quiet Sun - “Grand Minima”

The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. This activity ranges from the extremely quiet “Grand Minima” such as the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 A.D.) to a very active “Grand Maxima” such as the enhanced activity observed during most of the 20th century (1940-2000 A.D.). High energy galactic cosmic rays enter Earth’s atmosphere collide with sufficient force to cause a nuclear spallation reaction with atmospheric molecules. Some of the fission products include radionuclides 14C and 10Be, which settle down on Earth's surface. Their concentration can be measured in ice cores, allowing a reconstruction of solar activity levels into the distant past.

The sun’s magnetic field wrapped in the solar winds deflects galactic cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system and is therefore responsible for modulating production of these radioactive isotopes.............To read Mr. James Marusek’s entire article, please
CLICK HERE. I highly recommend it. If you ever had any doubts that the so-called global warming “deniers” were the real scientists involved in this issue, this should go a long way toward dispelling that myth. RK

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