Monday, January 2, 2012

Extreme Weather Forecast for the 2012 and 2014 Hurricane and Tornado Seasons

By James A. Marusek

Accurate long-range predictions of the intensity of upcoming hurricane and tornado seasons have eluded forecasters for many decades. These types of storms, by their very nature, are raw chaos unfolding.

In 2006, a relationship between major (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) Atlantic hurricanes and major (Fujita scale F4-F5) U. S. tornadoes was studied. A strong natural short-term cycle was observed overlaying the long-term multi-decadal cycles of hurricane and tornado activity. This research was presented in a paper titled "The Art of Forecasting Extreme Weather Events" at the Second International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory in July 2006.

From this research, a forecasting tool was developed called the storminess model.

A forecasting tool is only as good as its ability to generate accurate predictions. The best way to test the tool's accuracy is to generate a forecast. To date, the storminess tool has made a total of three forecast and these subsequently were shown to be completely accurate. This is a long-range tool and the last two forecast were made over a year in advance of the targeted seasons.

The tool will now be used to forecast two seasons (2012 and 2014) at once.

The years 2010/2011 were a double-peak producing a total of 8 major Atlantic hurricanes and 36 major U. S. tornadoes. Because this was a double-peak, storminess levels will fall very dramatically in 2012. The year 2012 will not produce an extreme in either the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) or in the number of major U. S. tornadoes (EF4 or EF5). The forecast is that the year 2012 will produce a maximum of 2 major Atlantic hurricanes and a maximum of 10 major U. S. tornadoes.

This fall of storminess levels in 2012 will cause the storminess index to drop below the lower threshold, which will set the stage for another extreme year in the future. It is very likely (83 percent probability) that the year 2014, will be another extreme weather year. Storminess in 2014 will produce either a minimum of five major Atlantic hurricanes or a minimum of 23 major U. S. tornadoes.

No forecast is made of the year 2013.

As always I am pleased to publish Jim's work. James Marusek is a retired U.S. Department of the Navy nuclear physicist and engineer. He has presented some of the best work on the sun's cycles I have seen and is now working on "the Weather Chronology". He sent me an e-mail recently saying; "I has added over 200 more pages to it. Most of those are U.S. weather events. It is now up to 802 pages and is a 12 megabyte file, so it might take a little time to download." it is still at the same location RK


1 comment:

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