Friday, August 19, 2011

Logical Fallacy of the Week - The Base Rate Fallacy: Week 5


The Base Rate Fallacy

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the "base rate" or "prior probability" of H and the total probability of evidence E.

My Take - I listed this week's fallacy because it was next on the list, and this will give your eyes time to roll back into their proper alignment for next week's fallacy....which is difficult also.  However,  both of them outline how we can make judgements that are more instinctive rather than logical or factual.  

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