Thursday, August 4, 2011

Logical Fallacy of the Week, Appeal to Probability: Week 3

Rich Kozlovich

My Take - If you think this out you will realize that this is the basis for most greenie claims; AKA unwarranted scares i.e., if it is at all possible then it is probable that it will happen. Since possibility is not a valid indicator of probability, this is a false basis for action.  Furthermore....they have a record for being wrong that is almost monopolistic.

As we go through these fallacies I do believe you will find that the greenies violate almost all of them. Most of what they say is based on “maybe” and “could be”, with a little junk science thrown in to give the appearance of fact. As a result they can't help but base their views, conclusions and actions on logical fallacies.

Fallacy, An appeal to probability

An appeal to probability is a justification based on probability, sometimes regarded as a logical fallacy, when an unwarranted assumption that something will happen, because it can happen, or when the odds of an occurrence are unrealistically played down in lieu of appropriate precaution.

Although a fallacy when used in absolute terms, probability can be used for many beneficial purposes. The fields of statistics, insurance, risk management, and urban planning, all use probability to determine the likelihood of risk or negative outcomes, or gain and positive outcomes.  Examples.....

See also Murphy's law
Infinite monkey theorem, a mathematically rigorous probabilistic statement
Compare with: Axiom S5

Logical Fallacy of the Week: Week 1
Logical Fallacy of the Week, Argument from authority: Week 2
Logical Fallacy of the Week, Appeal to Probability: Week 3


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