As I've said - Prediction is really hard. Especially about the future. I stated some weeks ago that Iowa and New Hampshire were very different kinds of states. New Hampshire is considered a liberal stare and I'm not quite sure Iowa knows what it is and neither do I, but it's different and hard to predict. Trump losing in Iowa was a shocker to the pollsters, although I picked Cruz from the very beginning to take Iowa.
On November 19th I said Bobby Jindal had already dropped out as well as Walker and Perry. I said Graham was out whether he announced it or not and Pataki, Huckabee and Santorum would be out before Iowa. Well, the timing wasn't exactly right but the outcome was the same - they're not going to be in at South Carolina.
I went on to say Kasich, Fiorina and Christi would follow after Iowa or just before. All but Kasich are out, and why Kasich is still in amazes me. Although he's come up in the polls in South Carolina after such a strong showing in New Hampshire, which demonstrates how far left he's moved, he's still in the single digits and will remain there. As one writer said, "we'll have to listen to that gasbag one more time". I predicted at this point only Bush, Cruz, Paul, Rubio and Trump would be left. I said Paul was likely to stay in because he's Ron Paul, but he's out also.
On January 6th I said Cruz would take Iowa, New Hampshire. I believed he could overcome "big ethanol" and win. He did. It's my belief he would have won New Hampshire without Trump, but Trump is the "Mule" of the Foundation Trilogy in this year's predictions. That one anomaly no one anticipated or can account for. After Iowa I said there would only be six or possibly even four left. I was right and I was wrong. There are six left alright, but I meant for both parties.
There's six Republicans left, and I wonder what's in some of their minds. Carson is the most likable of all of them, but he's not going to get the nomination. If he's staying in because he feels he can move the party in a different direction - that's delusional. If he's staying in because he hopes to have a position in a Republican administration - it's my belief he can already have that, no matter who he might endorse after dropping out, which he's going to have to do soon because he's about out of money. Dropping out and endorsing another candidate would have more impact than staying in and suffocating to death for lack of money. So what's going on in his mind? Maybe he's not interested in a government job and really feels he can move the nation in a good direction. I believe he's capable of that kind of thinking, and if that's his goal - I will continue to be impressed with him as a man.
I went on to say "Bush is toast, but because his campaign has a lot of money – money he’s burning through fast to raise more money – not a good indicator of a successful campaign – and he will be out after New Hampshire on February 9. He will lose in Iowa and it seems to me New Hampshire will crush him. However – Iowa and New Hampshire are very different states. He may survive and even win one but if that happens he'll be crushed in South Carolina and will be out. No more money for him." I think that's still on track although I really didn't expect him to stay in after New Hampshire. But, he's still toast!
I went on to say "the final four would be Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Trump and Bush as a long shot left after New Hampshire. But after South Carolina Bush will definitely be out and either Trump, Carson or both will be on the ropes and Nevada will be next, but Nevada is only a minor win or loss. The big deal will be Super Tuesday on March 1 with Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia." So far I'm not doing badly. Kasich, Carson, and Bush will be out after South Carolina or at the very least after Nevada. They will not be there for Super Tuesday.
According to Conservative Review's evaluation of the candidates conservative credentials, Bush has none! CR rates them in the following categories:
- Budget, Spending and Debt
- Civil Liberties
- Education
- Energy and Environment
- Foreign Policy and Defense
- Free Market
- Health Care and Entitlements
- Immigration
- Moral Issues
- Second Amendment
- Taxes, Economy and Trade
Cruz is the only real conservative in the race. He rates "good" in every category except Free Market where he scores a "mixed".
Kasich scores "good" on Foreign Policy and Defense, but "bad" in four areas. Health Care and Entitlements, Immigration, Moral Issues and the Second Amendment and he's "mixed" on the rest. Not a ringing conservative endorsement. He's been quoted saying jokingly he would have been a good Democratic candidate. I agree.....and I'm not sure he was joking.
Rubio is rated "good" on Budget, Spending and Debt, Education and Energy and Environment, "bad" on Health Care and Entitlements, Immigration, Moral Issues and the Second Amendment. On the rest he scores a "mixed"
Trump rates "good" in Education, Energy and Environment and Foreign Policy and Defense. He's rated as "bad" in Civil Liberties, Free Market and Health Care and Entitlements. He's rated "mixed" on all else, but I heard him interviewed on the news yesterday saying he's capable of changing into anything he wants to change into. I believe him!
So there we have it - Eleven categories for rating conservatism among the Republican candidates - remember the Republicans claim during elections they're all 'conservatives', so this is worth noting, including Kasich - who feels he has the right to define conservatism as he sees fit. He would be a good Democratic candidate!
Eleven categories and six candidates. That's 66 potential "good" ratings. In reality there were only 22 "good" ratings and Cruz holds 10 of them. That's 12 "good" ratings among the remaining five candidates. However, since there were only 22 "good" ratings that leaves 44 "bad" or "mixed" ratings. So much for Republican conservatism.
My prediction for South Carolina. Bush, Kasich and Carson will be gone, Cruz will win, Trump will come in second and Rubio will be third, but I think a far third at this point. Rubio is a fraud and as time goes on it's becoming more obvious and although he's smart and likable - he comes across like a really smart capable "kid" to me, and it seems to me he has no strong foundation for his views. I don't believe he can be the rock in the current that's needed. All three will be in after Nevada, but only Cruz will survive Super Tuesday.
This brings me to Bernie and Hillary. I said on November 19 - "As for the Democrats - Hillary has to be the most unlikable candidate to ever run for the Presidency in my life. I don't think even the Democrats like or trust her." That was an understatement! I went on to say: "As for Bernie Sanders - he may be a loon, but he's not afraid to say exactly what he believes, even when it's loony, and that’s what so attractive to the Democratic base – which may be even farther left than Bernie! Like Trump – he’s been a perpetual candidate – both with huge egos, both obnoxious, both with big mouths, and both of whom never dreamed they would go this far. I think the difference between Trump and Bernie is this - I think Bernie's going to win the Democratic nomination!"
I still think Bernie can take the nomination in the primary process, but I'm not sure the Democratic elite will allow him to take the nomination at the convention. The corruption is already started with the Super Delegates where Bernie tied in Iowa (which was shown to be fraudulent - he probably won - shocking - voter fraud by Democrats! Imaging that!) and won in New Hampshire yet Hillary has 394 delegates counting the committed Super Delegates to Bernie's 44. It's still my view the Democratic leadership wants a brokered convention and both Hillary and Bernie will be out since both are poison. Bernie for being honest as to who he is, and Hillary for being herself.
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