Sunday, February 12, 2017

Oil and gas industry activity is mostly driven by price forecasts, which are partially driven by the future markets as well as other indicators such as competitor activity. A possible income tax reduction influences long term outlook, but it doesn't impact much the short term. The approval of the Dakota Access pipeline is a positive signal, because it is evident Obama was playing to an irrational constituency.

Longer term, I wouldn't put so much hope into light tight oil production (what they call "fracking"). It needs higher prices, which should come about by 2019-20. Until then I suspect most oil development activity will focus on the Permian Basin. Trump is somewhat positive for the domestic oil and gas industry. But I'm not sure he's got his act together in the foreign policy area. For example, the baloney about forcing Mexico to pay for us border control costs comes across as arrogant and somewhat stupid.

While it's true the price of oil can have an impact on fracking due to the technological difficulties involved, it is none the less fracking will be the driving political force worldwide.  Every fracking field is different and has different technical difficulties coaxing the petroleum out of the rock.  I'm not sure why you think the Permian basin will be the focus since it's a jumbled mess of staked and interpenetration layers.  The Bakken is a "pure oil play", the Haynesville is "almost entirely natural gas", the Marcellus is  natural gas, light oil, propane and butane.   The death of fracking is over stated since the process has evolved in so many ways the "American shale sector has already adapted to prices below $50.00."  Fracking is going to change the world's political landscape, especially since the US is going to become more isolationist making the world stunningly unsafe. 

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