From Benny Peiser's Global Warming Policy Foundation

New Cold War?
Ukraine Crisis Signals Shift In Global Energy Politics

Editor's Note: My take from the beginning was this is their mess and they need to fix it. I also viewed the Ukraine as a financial sinkhole due to the corruption, which is as bad as it is in Russia. I truly feel sorry for the Ukrainian people since they have been suffering from tyranny since the Russian Revolution, and to an extent we can hardly believe, in spite of the lies told by Walter Duranty and the New York Times that no one was starving in Russia. But the long term impact will be positive if everyone just let’s this play out.

 

Ultimately this will end up being a good thing for the Russian people, the Ukrainian people, all of Europe and the West as a whole. Putin’s only asset is energy sales. This will force the EU to back down on all its global warming carbon reduction claptrap, ignore the greens regarding fracking, coal mining, and all their other misanthropic resistance to energy producing programs - and ignoring the greens may become a habit – one can only hope!

 

This will give Europe the energy they need to dump their need for Russian gas, which will seriously impact the Russian economy. If it get’s bad enough Putin and his criminal mob will be out. As for sending that cupcake Kerry into this pie eating contest – That is so amazingly stupid I can’t even believe it.  Besides, Putin could care less what anyone thinks or wants. He has seen this developing for a long time and feels he has no choice if he’s to survive, so no amount of sanctions will make any difference. For Putin - it’s do or die. And in the mean time Kerry will be dessert and Obama will continue to be laughed at....openly!

Whatever comes out of this week’s sanctions meetings, there is no going back to the status quo ante. Europe will seek to liberate itself from Russian oil and gas supplies as fast as possible. Fresh investment in Russia will collapse. Putin has grossly misjudged how vulnerable Russia really is to an economic showdown with the G7 but cannot now change course. It is a new international order. As Dmitri Trenin from Carnegie Moscow says, we are already in a new Cold War. The last 20 years were merely a truce. --Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Daily Telegraph, 17 March 2014

Europe's economies are far too dependent on Russian supplies of natural gas. Breaking these links can't be done cheaply, easily or all at once, but a patient strategy to diversify from Russian energy supplies is long overdue. Europe has shale gas of its own -- maybe a 25-year supply at the current rate of gas consumption -- but it has been in no hurry to exploit it. A U.S.-style boom may be unlikely for reasons of geology and population density, but that's no excuse for failing to examine the possibilities. And there are other paths to energy diversification. If the annexation of Crimea makes Merkel regret her country's dependence on Russian gas, it should also make her wonder about her decision to close Germany's nuclear power plants years ahead of schedule. --Bloomberg editorial, 17 March 2014

 



The standoff between Russia and Ukraine that precipitated yesterday’s farcical referendum on Crimean secession evokes memories of past attempts to use energy as a geopolitical weapon. Upon closer inspection, it also reveals the early stages of a historically significant shift in global energy politics that would have seemed improbable a generation ago. The global economic impact of shale gas could be magnified when the first facilities to ship it from the U.S. in liquid form, known as liquefied natural gas, or LNG, become operational late next year. That will begin to put American policy-makers in the once-unfathomable position of having an energy weapon with which to apply geopolitical leverage. --Tom Saler, Journal Sentinel, 15 March 2014

Over the long-term, the EU will look more aggressively for ways to diversify away from Russia. It has already been pursuing such a strategy, but the latest flare up in tensions will likely accelerate the EU's efforts. EU leaders plan to meet on March 20-21 to discuss how Europe can reduce its dependence on Russia. This will likely include pressing the U.S. for more LNG exports. It also means that EU member nations may try to develop their own shale resources. The Ukraine crisis appears to have convinced European leaders to step up their efforts to improve energy security. Russia may hold some leverage over Europe in the short-term (the extent to which, is debatable), but over the next few years the European Union will chip away at Russia's energy grip. --Nick Cunningham, Oil Price, 16 March 2014

China is reconsidering plans for a carbon tax as local air pollution trumps concerns over climate change and some rich nations back away from imposing a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, a top official said. A carbon tax is increasingly controversial among lawmakers, said Zhu. The carbon and air pollution taxes would target mostly the same sources, and in difficult economic times China is wary of hitting companies with too many costly regulations. Zhu also referred to the fact that Australia, under the Abbott government, is trying to abolish the country’s carbon tax, while a price on carbon has been blocked in the United States. --The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 March 2014