Don't Let The Crowds Fool You: Culture is King and Corruption is Queen

"Around 25,000 cheering Bronx citizens attended a Trump rally, and it shocked Democrats, after all, this is New York, this can't be happening!  The governor of New York called them "a bunch of clowns", and the media insisted it doesn't mean anything."  

 By Rich Kozlovich

As my regular readers know I'm a real fan of American Thinker, which I consider one of the very best news sites in the nation.  On May 25th Monica Showalter, one of my favorite writers, posted this piece, What the Bronx voters who've flipped to Trump are saying, quoting one of the attendees:

Jerry Evans, a registered Democrat in New York City, had never attended a political rally before Thursday.  But speaking with Newsweek at Donald Trump's campaign event in the South Bronx, Evans said that he turned out to show support for the former president because he feels "very strongly about how the border's going."...... "You know, I said, why is Biden giving them the red carpet treatment?"...... "He's giving them everything—giving them housing, giving them shelter, giving them money, cash—and people who live here can't get that."

She went on to ask:

How many thousands of them in that 25,000 crowd are thinking the same thing?

No matter how many are thinking along those lines, here's what we need to ask.  Is this enlightenment permanent?   Answer?  No, it isn't!  This is just an “it's my ox that's bring gored” reaction. If their ox wasn’t being gored they’d be just fine with Biden and all the corruption, insanity and treason being promoted by the left, it's part and parcel of their culture.  Make no mistake, both the masses and the rulers are a fickle and self serving lot, and to the point of being dangerous. 

On September 5, 1651 Oliver Cromwell's forces defeated the forces of Charles II.  Later as they were marching into London the crowds cheered vigorously, and one of his followers was enthralled with the cheering.  Cromwell put a reality damper on that saying: 

“Do not trust to the cheering, for those very persons would shout as much if you and I were going to be hanged.”

They're shocked that academia is a cultural, intellectual, and morally corrupt mephitic ooze of inbreeding, being led by grossly overpaid, blatantly incompetent DEI racists, and leftist/Marxist/anti-American ideologues, many of whom are now being exposed as plagiarists.  A ethically, intellectually and morally deficient cabal who have been turning out graduates who can't read, write, or have a working knowledge of history, geography, or how and why America is unique in all of world history.  They're not even competent in their fields of study.  And that it's been going on for decades.

So, don't let the cheering fool you.  People without a solid moral foundation have meandering values that allow them to rationalize their acts of self interest and corruption.   Cromwell defeated a corrupt King in 1651, and then had to dissolve Parliament in 1653 for becoming corrupt for their own ends.  When dissolving Parliament Oliver Cromwell made a statement that's totally applicable to our modern day state of corruption:

It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice. Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government. Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.

Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess? Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord's temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.

Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God's help, and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.

I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of this place. Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.  In the name of God, go!

Two questions that need to be asked and answering:

• Does Cromwell's vile description of that Parliament then a fit description of the political figures sitting in positions of power and authority today? 
•  If so; do really think term limits are bad? 

Here are three quotes of my own I think are appropriate for this or any other discussion in order to define reality.  

1. The patterns of life repeat over and over again.
2. Life is about patterns and circles.  Patterns of behavior and the social circles that create that behavior.
3. History, reality, time and truth are on the same side.  
4. Truth isn't unkind. It's just the truth. 
5. People will always be people.  
6. Corruption is the offspring of power, and if that power goes unchecked, then the true child of power emerges:  Tyranny! 

Updated:     

• White House Says National Museum Of American History Found Room For Drag Queens And Crotch Harnesses, But Not The Founding Fathers 
• Congress Is No Longer Performing Its Constitutional Function 
• Besmirching American History on our Dime - Clarice Feldman|  It seems that we are paying super-woke people to denigrate our history and culture, and because of the way in which the governance of this important institution is set up, there’s little power for the White House to quickly change it.

Congressional Democrats and the Double-Edged Polling Sword

You either trust the polls or you don’t.

By Mark Angelides | May 8, 2025 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags Articles, Opinion, Politics

He who lives by the poll dies by the poll. As President Donald Trump moves beyond the first 100 days of his second term, Democrats in the upper and lower chambers of Congress are keen to highlight his slipping approval ratings. Indeed, these polling numbers are delivered as concrete proof that the end is finally nigh for The Donald. Why then – if such confidence in these surveys is to be believed – do the same politicos not see warning signs for their own desultory satisfaction levels?

Schumer’s Polling Paradox

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) recently took the opportunity to highlight Trump’s falling numbers, gleefully stating that “Trump has the lowest 100-day approval rating since they started polling 80 years ago.” CNN – in a retort that must have had viewers checking to see if they were on the right channel – asked why the senator’s own approval was sitting at just 17%. The gentleman from New York grumbled and insisted that “polls come and go.”

In terms of destroying one’s own argument, this effort ranks pretty high on the list of political pratfalls. And yet, it has not stopped other leading Democratic figures from employing the same lack of logic.

When asked about the level of focus his party is devoting to El Salvador, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (also a New Yorker) responded, “Our reaction is that Donald Trump has the lowest public approval rating of any president in modern American history.” Again, this is a superb headline with the advantage of using the near-clickbait term “history.” Perhaps Jeffries would do well to examine the plank in his eye before beholding the speck in Trump’s.

After all, NBC’s polling has the Democratic Party at just 27% – a record low. CNN rates the party at 29%, its lowest approval rating in “history.” Despite the obvious hypocrisy, one has to wonder at the thought process behind believing only in polling that is favorable to one’s worldview.

A Cognitive Conundrum

Like beauty, polling reliability is in the eye of the beholder. In other words, you hear what you want to hear. However, the real issue might be that most surveys examine the full range of American attitudes rather than the subsection relevant to the current political leadership.

For example, Schumer comes across a series of polls that show Trump’s disapproval rating fluttering around 51.2% – as it is now according to the RealClear Politics average. That means that more people disapprove of the president than approve, right? Not so fast. A keen observer – notably not one looking solely to reinforce an inbuilt bias – may look at the last time Trump’s numbers were at 51.2% and then extrapolate from there. In fact, The Donald was suffering under the weight of this exact same negative approval in late October 2024, just days before he won the popular vote, the Electoral College, and all seven swing states.

A party cannot win if its base abandons it. Schumer and others in Democratic congressional leadership should be looking not at Trump’s approval across the entire country, but rather the approval of the Democratic Party by its voters.

To receive consecutive polls that put one’s party at a miserable 27% and 29% is not simply a case of “polls come and go.” It is a warning shot from the party faithful that you have lost your way.

Doc, I’m Sick! Don’t Give Me Medicine!

Since Trump won the White House in 2016, the Democratic Party has employed a single tool in its efforts to thwart his political rise: Hate Donald Trump. This may have seemed a successful tactic in November 2020, but surely such a notion should have been retired four years later when Trump sealed his triumphant return to Washington, DC.

Your News – How You Like It!

Republican voters are unlikely to flip to support Democratic politicians, so the party in question needs to ensure that its base is locked in and then fight for the growing contingent of independent voters. According to NBC’s March polling, the collapse in approval was driven by Registered Democratic voters – 20% of whom had an unfavorable view of their team.

The voters seem to realize that being nothing but anti-Donald is not the best strategy for winning elections and does not inspire Americans to support the party. Why can’t Schumer and his congressional cohorts see this? Perhaps they can, but they are just stuck on a path that will lead them further into obscurity. Or could it be that they have spent so long listening to their legacy media allies that the Kool-Aid has started to taste just too good?

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

Read More From Mark Angelides Editor-in-Chief

American Political Thermometer: Is the United States MAGA Country?

The polls and passions of the USA. 

By Mark Angelides | Apr 21, 2025 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags: Articles, Opinion, Politics

Since the 2024 election, a coordinated refrain from leading Democrats – despite President Donald Trump’s return to the White House – has been that the public no longer supports his “extreme” agenda. It’s a bold claim and, if focusing on a small percentage of policy issues, could be technically correct. However, when taken as a whole, it seems the country is getting redder and redder. More notable is that a significant chunk of these GOP supporters considers themselves MAGA-minded.

What the Polls Say

An NBC survey released this month found “thirty-six percent of registered voters identified themselves as MAGA supporters.” That’s not just Republicans – 71% of whom claim that appellation – but voters from all three parties, even independents, who generally shun the other two. It’s a stark increase from January 2024, when this figure was just 20%.

Looking wider, there is a general turn toward the GOP that seems to be solidifying around Trump’s second term. Napolitan News Service released a poll last week that showed “in March, 46% of voters considered themselves Republicans or leaned Republican, while 41% considered themselves Democrats or leaned Democrat.” That’s a five-point difference, which has become more fixed since Trump returned to the White House.

These findings fall perfectly in line with polling by Gallup, which found:

“Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.”

Support for the Democratic Party is on the slide after 30 years of inbuilt advantage. So, with more people identifying as Republicans and more Republicans identifying as MAGA supporters, it seems that the United States really is on its way to becoming a MAGA country.

Looking to the MAGA Future

Conventional wisdom has long held that the youth vote for the left, as they age and become more experienced, gradually shift to the right. However, another survey – this one by the Yale Youth Poll suggests a wild backlash against the woke left. Of the elder cohort (22 to 29), the Yale poll found support for the Democratic Party was just six points ahead of GOP support. It’s a win for the left, certainly, yet not a seismic one. Then comes the 18-to-21 cohort.

This group opted for Republicans by an enormous 12-point margin, suggesting there is a visceral – almost reactive – swing away from the traditional position. In fact, while Vice President JD Vance is popular with these right-leaning youngsters, the survey discovered if Trump were in a hypothetical third-term primary, “the incumbent president dominates” with 56% support.

Polls and Policy Highlights

A range of policy-based polls were published last week, going beyond popularity for individuals and parties. Here are some of the more interesting results from those:

• 64% believe people should have to prove they are citizens before registering to vote, with 26% against.  (Rasmussen Reports)
• 61% of Americans think a recession will occur within the next year, compared to 24% who believe the economic outlook is positive. (Ipsos)

Lastly, it seems the betting markets are gearing up for 2028 already. The current favorites for the next POTUS are:

• Vice President JD Vance – 11/4 or a 26.7% probability.
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA) – 10/1 or a 9.1% probability.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Josh Shapiro (D-PA) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Pete Buttigieg – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Donald Trump Jr. – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Stephen A. Smith – 40/1 or a 2.1% probability.

We are still years away from the presidential election, so much can – and will – change, but tracking the momentum of the betting markets rarely proves a futile move.

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

Read More From Mark Angelides Editor-in-Chief

Wishful Thinking: Leftists Say Trump ‘Coup’ Has Failed

It’s the latest in an unbroken string of failed anti-Trump narratives. 

 

By Tim Donner Feb 26, 2025 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags: Articles, Opinion, Politics

 

From the moment it became clear that Donald Trump had secured a decisive electoral victory, the left has been flailing about, desperately seeking a counter-narrative to explain away and diminish the evident allure of his far-reaching, revolutionary agenda.

Early on, unable to challenge the reality of an unambiguous mandate from the American people, the hard left had little choice but to blame the voters. Of course, that has never proven to be a wise strategy, as Hillary Clinton discovered when she wrote off half the electorate as a basket of deplorables. But some lessons are never learned. Right after the 2024 election, in the most egregious of the many instances of leftists condemning the electorate, famed race hustler Al Sharpton blamed Kamala Harris’ loss on misogyny among black and Hispanic voters.

Fast forward to last weekend, when Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) of The Squad let loose by expressing a sentiment about Trumpists that her fellow travelers likely share. Displaying an admirable level of honesty, she said the quiet part out loud: “These people are just idiots — I really am at the point where it has become really hard to have an intellectual debate with any of these [Trump supporters] because the level of stupidity that they are displaying every single day is frankly, embarrassing … the dumbing of the United States has arrived, because how else do we get a Trump presidency again?”

Throwing Stuff Against the Wall

Lest you believe the left might have finally come to grips with their catastrophic decline, consider the string of talking points they have adopted and then dropped in trying to convince the American people of the horrible mistake they made last November. Hours after Trump assumed office, they started with the term “oligarch,” believing that because tech titans came alongside Trump at his inauguration, we would now be governed like the Russian oligarchy. Remarkably, we suddenly started hearing the same exact talking point from the media and talking heads.

When that narrative failed, the leftist crowd moved on to “shadow government,” hoping people would shake in their boots at the thought of Elon Musk secretly controlling the government from a hidden bunker. Then they fine-tuned the talking point to “President Musk,” trying in vain to claim that Trump, of all people, had handed power over to the billionaire while simultaneously wailing that Trump has executed a coup d’etat after winning a democratic election – hard to reconcile those two concepts.  With Trump’s public approval stubbornly remaining higher than ever, they flailed away by complaining that Musk is “unelected.” Note to the left: The entire executive branch, other than the president, is unelected.

Since all those strategies proved fruitless, leftists have now adopted an entirely new narrative animated by wishful thinking: Trump is failing. Indeed, a story in the left-wing American Prospect entitled “The Coup Has Failed” – there’s that word again – declared, “Trump’s falling approval ratings reveal an out-of-touch presidency, and have given space for allies to turn against him.” Nice try, but Trump’s approval in the latest Harvard-Harris poll is 52%, higher than at any time in his first administration. In that story and others from the left, a new narrative centers around a handful of districts that Trump won easily, where hundreds of angry voters showed up at town halls to express outrage to their elected representatives. Note to the left: Considering the shouts of “Tax the wealthy,” “Tax the rich,” and “Tax the billionaires,” for example, at one of those town halls in eastern Oregon, these are almost certainly people who voted against Trump. In another wishful, tone-deaf story from a far-left publication, entitled “The DOGE Project Will Backfire,” The Atlantic declared, “Trump’s war on public employees is bad for all of us … let’s dispense with the notion that the government is too big. It is not.”

Blaming Trump for Biden’s Problem

An additional storyline leftists are attempting to peddle is that Trump has done nothing to lower food prices, as if he could fix a problem years in the making in his first month, or could force private companies to lower prices by executive fiat. Similarly, they complain that he has failed to tame inflation, a result of massive overspending in the Biden administration. Yet polling reveals that public confidence in the economy has sharply risen since Trump became president again; in fact, it is higher than at any time since he left office in 2021.

Your News – How You Like It!

Then there’s the narrative that Trump and Musk are out to violate your privacy via DOGE and take away your Social Security, a particularly inflammatory accusation designed to alarm senior citizens on fixed incomes. But there is not a shred of evidence that the administration has any such intent. And then there are all the stories about Musk and DOGE deliberately cutting off funding for the poor, sick, and disabled, again with no evidence to support the claims other than Musk, by his own admission, taking a chainsaw to the deep state legacy of waste, fraud, abuse, and corruption – with broad public approval. As Liberty Nation News has pointed out, 69% of the public in a New York Times/Siena poll before the election favored either major change in the federal government or tearing the system down entirely.

Finally, the left writ large has employed the phrase “potentially illegal” to define some of Trump’s extraordinary string of executive actions, merely throwing that against the wall – without evidence, as the left loves to say – and hoping it might stick, unlike their many other anti-Trump narratives. The 47th president has been breaking eggs to make what he might call a big, beautiful omelet, so it is not terribly difficult to whip people into a frenzy. But the left has so far failed to do so with one flailing accusation after another, confirming the very message delivered by the voters in November.

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

Read More From

Tim Donner

Senior Political Analyst

Pollsters Should Poll Themselves

By Robin Itzler

Editor's Note:  This is one of the commentaries selected from Robin's weekly newsletter Patriot Neighbors. Any cartoons appearing will have been added by me.  If you wish to get the full edition, E-mail her at PatriotNeighbors@yahoo.com to get on her list, it's free. RK 

 

The 2024 presidential election confirmed that most pollsters were not polling to obtain a snapshot of how voters were leaning, but rather to INFLUENCE voters. They matriculated who they would poll to get the responses they wanted, in hopes of encouraging voters before Election Day. 

Some examples that show polling should go the way of Nehru jackets:

• The weekend before Election Day, the supposedly reliable Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer announced that Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Trump won Iowa by 13 points!
• CNN’s October 28 poll: - Showed Harris winning Wisconsin by a massive six points. Trump won the Badger State by less than 1 point!
• Had Harris with a 5-point lead in Michigan. Trump won the Great Lake State by 1.4 points!
• Claimed Harris would win Arizona by 1-point. Trump won the Grand Canyon State by a whopping 5.5 points! (Side note: We do not believe that Arizonians who voted for Donald Trump would then vote for the progressive Ruben Gallego. How fast can you say “stop the steal?”)
• Had Harris winning North Carolina by 1 point. Trump won the Tar Heel State by an impressive 3.3 points!
• The NBC/Marist poll on October 30 showed Harris up in Michigan. As noted, Trump won the state by 1.5 points.
• In New Jersey, the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University (just the name makes you think they know what they are doing) projected Harris’s margin of victory in the Garden State would be 20 points. Harris won the deep blue state by a mere 5 percent!
• The New York Times-Sienna College poll was off by quite a lot. Their final poll had Harris winning Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Will pollsters disappear in 2028? We doubt it. Instead, many will say that Donald Trump, who outperformed expectations in three straight presidential elections, was the exception to the rule. Liberal leaning pollsters are probably already writing poll results that show Gavin Newsom winning the election.

2028 Presidential Poll a Real Head-Scratcher

Perhaps the lesson is that some people never learn.

 

By Graham J Noble | Nov 20, 2024 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags: Articles, Opinion, Politics

The 2024 presidential election is barely in the rearview mirror, and yet, at least one polling organization decided to sound out a small sample of voters on their preferred 2028 White House candidates. Why conduct a 2028 presidential poll in November of 2024? One can only speculate. Maybe a rudimentary social experiment to find out whether Kamala Harris’s campaign, which crashed and burned so spectacularly on Nov. 5, could rise from the ashes in four years.

A first glance at the results of this survey, conducted by Echelon Insights between November 14 and 18 and sampling 1,010 likely voters, indicates that the VP may be in good shape as a 2028 presidential candidate. A second glance, however, tells a different story.

Some context should be added here, though, for the sake of accuracy and to be fair to Echelon Insights. The insignificance of this poll only applies to the one question about 2028 presidential candidates. Beyond that, the wide-ranging 73-question study Is worthy of attention. It is also only fair to point out that the poll did not oversample either Democrats or Republicans – but perhaps undersampled independent voters.

2028 Presidential Poll Unplugged

Question nine of the survey asks, “If the 2028 Democratic presidential primary were being held today, for whom would you vote?” This question was only asked of those respondents who identified as Democrats. Forty-one percent tapped Kamala Harris. It’s as if 2024 never happened. The gap between the number of respondents who chose the outgoing (in more ways than one) VP and the second most popular choice was staggering.  California Governor Gavin Newsom was favored by 8% of those who answered the question. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro took a 7% share.

It’s worth noting that the survey takers had a choice of 14 potentials, plus options for “someone else” and “unsure,” an answer that attracted 16% of those who answered the question. The two points to note, here, are that the unsure likely voters considerably outnumbered those who selected anybody except Harris. Also, 59% of respondents to this question did not select Harris as their preferred 2028 candidate.

Bored? Check This Out!

Question 10 was the same for Republicans. Incoming Vice President JD Vance came in at 37%, with Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley at 9% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 8%. If, just for argument’s sake, one was to consider this a legitimate 2028 presidential poll, JD Vance may be in worse shape than Kamala Harris, among their respective voter bases. But debating whether that is accurate and, if so, why may be an endeavor without an expectation.

One cannot criticize Echelon Insights for their diligence, even though the survey took in only a relatively small sample of likely voters. However, the organization clearly did not read the memo from Trump’s opponents, who have reliably informed the American people that, now Trump is returning to the White House, there will never be another election because he has no intention of leaving office. Polling voters on their choices for future presidents is, therefore, a complete waste of time, apparently.

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

Read More From Graham J Noble

Election 2024 — The Pollsters Are Wimping Out

Pollsters are talking loud and saying nothing. By Leesa K. Donner Oct 29, 2024 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags Articles, Opinion, Politics

It’s often been said that in the age of the internet, there is a lot less meaningful information available, and nowhere is this more evident than in the morass of Election 2024 polls. The closer the nation gets to Election Day, the more pollsters appear to be providing the American electorate with mountains of inconsequential data. Here is some hard evidence to back up this premise.

Beginning on Oct. 21 until yesterday, Oct. 28, 14 national polls were released by the supposed best and brightest polling firms in the United States. One can only imagine what it costs to find out so little. Of the nationwide surveys released in this short time, seven claim that only one point or less separates the presidential candidates:

• New York Times/Siena: TIE
• Emerson: TIE
• TIPP: TIE
• CNN: TIE
• CBS News: Harris +1
• Rasmussen: Harris +1
• USA TODAY/Suffolk: Harris +1

Four ties. Really? Could it be that some folks fear putting their stamp on something meaningful? Have pollsters come down with a severe case of the gun-shy flu? Meanwhile, the other seven results are not precisely earth-shattering but at least provide the reader with some information:

• CNBC: Trump +2
• Forbes: Trump +2
• WSJ: Trump +3
• Economist/YouGov national multi-candidate: Harris +3
• Reuters/Ipsos: Harris +3
• Morning Consult: Harris +4
• ABC News/Ipsos: Harris +4

Election 2024 – Is it Really That Close?

Anyone with a pulse remembers the giant mea culpa pollsters had to issue after Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016. However, in 2020, they mostly got it right, and then in 2022, they mostly got it right again. So why do the pollsters appear to be hedging their bets this time around?

One theory – and this is admittedly a supposition – is that they don’t feel comfortable going into the final days of Election 2024 with Trump leading. It’s almost as if they say it out loud, it might become reality. Another theory is that MAGA voters are extremely hard to poll. Could it be because they have been labeled everything from irredeemable to deplorable to not very intelligent followers of a fascist? That might cause some people to pause when expressing their intentions publicly.

Fear of the ‘L’ Word

It’s been a deluge of polls for months now, first with Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate and then with Kamala Harris. Ostensibly, it was the poll numbers that caused the historic last-minute major party candidate shift after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Once Harris’ convention bump began to fade, the polls started to tighten, and this is where they primarily pitched their tent. However, signs too difficult to ignore now have many a political analyst willing to openly suggest the notion of a Trump landslide. One must wonder why the polls do not reflect that – at the very least – Trump is pulling away from Harris in this last crucial week.

Shockingly, Harry Enten, a CNN polling analyst of all things, was willing to posit the idea of a blowout this week on NJ.com. “So this time around, don’t be surprised at the swing state polls. When they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states, and that’s what leads to a relative Electoral College blowout, with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes.” In the same article, pollster Nate Silver was reported as making a similar prediction.

Both Kellyanne Conway, an expert pollster, and Tom Bevan, publisher of RealClearPolitics, are calling for something labeled a narrow landslide. Bevan postulates this could come about if the swing state dominoes begin to fall in Trump’s direction:

“’Trump is currently leading in the RealClearPolitics averages in all of these swing states, but by very slim margins,’ he explained. ‘His biggest leads are in Georgia (Trump +2.5%) and Arizona (Trump +1.8%). But this idea of a “Narrow Landslide” would be if he wins all of them, and ends up with 312 electoral votes, but it could happen by just a few thousand votes in some of these states.’”

Conway agreed and asserted, “Voters are looking for stability and results. Trump’s ability to tap into their concerns about the economy and national security is driving this projection.”

Ditch the Diatribe – Try This!

While denying the word “landslide” should be attributed to his remarks, political analyst Mark Halperin told podcaster Megyn Kelly, “But there’s a school of thought that says, Trump’s going to go to Albuquerque to try to win New Mexico. He’s going to go to St. Paul to try to win Minnesota. He’s going to go to, I don’t know, Richmond to try to win Virginia.” The question then becomes why waste a candidate’s precious time in a place he or she could not possibly win?

Many analysts appear to be suggesting that the former president is on the precipice of a major win in Election 2024, but don’t look to the polls to confirm this potential outcome. They are too busy covering their collective derrieres instead of informing the American public of anything meaningful. Either that or the voting public should just ignore national polls, something we’ve been saying all along.

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

 

Read More From Leesa K. Donner

Kamala’s Existential Crisis: Minority Voters Edging Toward Trump

Identity politics was always risky. Now it threatens to come apart at the seams.  

By Tim Donner | Oct 14, 2024 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags,  Articles, Opinion

Eight years ago, it was all but unthinkable that Donald Trump could count on any significant support from two constituencies traditionally hostile to Republicans and crucial to Democrats. After his trip down that golden escalator, he delivered remarks about illegal immigrants that were widely viewed as insulting. They would be replayed over and over, destined to live in infamy. Most observers believed that he had permanently repelled minority voters and that the minimal support Republican presidential candidates had received over the years from Latino and black voters would shrink even further to almost undetectable levels.

In his victorious first run for the White House in 2016, Trump’s minority support was indeed shallow with only 6% of blacks and 28% of Latinos pulling the lever for the bombastic billionaire, according to the reputable Pew Research Center. In 2020, despite falling short in his bid for re-election, Trump improved his standing on the margins by about one-third, attracting 8% support from blacks and 36% from Latinos. But in 2024, multiple surveys are suggesting levels of minority support for the 45th president that have not only risen substantially, but threaten to actually realign the electorate.

While conservatives engaging in wishful thinking had speculated over the years that Trump could make serious inroads with minority voters, their wishes now seem to be coming true. Even writers at Washington’s most famous liberal newspaper have been forced to report that something substantial or even game-changing could well be in the works. In their story with the teaser “Trump polls better than ever with Black, Hispanic voters” they admit that “[b]oth numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election.”

The numbers they reference are perhaps surprising with regard to Spanish-speaking voters, but downright shocking when it comes to African Americans: 42% of Latinos and 20% of blacks plan to vote for the 45th president. Rewinding to the day in 2015 when he first entered the political stage, who would have imagined this? How is this even possible? Is it only because of their rank disappointment over the failures of a president, Joe Biden, who for most of his career enjoyed high levels of popularity among black voters?

Any way you cut it, this is a hair-on-fire crisis for Kamala Harris and Democrats across the land, with that same DC newspaper admitting the possibility – or even likelihood – that “we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.”

Minority Voters: Want vs Need

Trump does not need to attract a majority of black and Hispanic voters, so he can pick his spots in micro-targeting certain issues and areas that appear promising. He would be overjoyed to attract the growing slice of minority votes most polls are finding these days, as it would almost certainly grant him the title of 47th president.

 

But Harris must secure the traditionally overwhelming support Democrats have always been able to count on from minorities, or it’s all over for her. Consider that in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Trump despite massive minority support. In 2020, Biden’s numbers were down a bit but still more than acceptable among blacks and Hispanics, and he eked out a victory that would have gone to Trump with the reversal of fewer than 50,000 votes in three swing states. With such support plummeting first for Biden and now for Harris, unless the many polls on this subject are wrong or these voters return to the fold at the last minute, the vice president has an existential crisis on her hands. She has brought in the heaviest of hitters to try and repair this fissure, but he may have only made matters worse.

A famous TV ad from the 1980’s for an anti-perspirant advised: “Never let them see you sweat.” And yet, the Harris campaign is openly and profusely sweating about these two crucial constituencies – particularly black men – that most people assumed she would have all wrapped up by now. It seemed that Joe Biden’s problems attracting a sufficient percentage of black men should have disappeared when a woman of color was selected to take over the top spot.  Apparently not. After a massive ad campaign targeting black men failed to move the needle, the campaign brought in former president Barack Obama to make a case that the vice president has been unwilling or unable to make for herself.

Obama’s speech in Pittsburgh last week was some piece of work. He lectured, prodded, and shamed black men for not automatically coming to the aid of their fellow person of color, and accused them of sexism:

“The women in our lives have been getting our backs this entire time … When we get in trouble, and the system isn’t working for us, they’re the ones out there marching and protesting. And now, you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you because you think that’s a sign of strength because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.”

Even reliable liberals seemed appalled at Obama shaming his fellow black men. Nia-Malika Henderson, columnist for Bloomberg and one-time senior political reporter for CNN, was blunt:

“Don’t be sexist. Vote for Kamala Harris. That’s one heck of a bumper sticker message … Obama has frequently singled out Black people for reprimanding … Harris supporters were out post-speech doing damage control … … Jesse Jackson, who, more than anyone, paved the way for the Obama presidency, famously said that Obama talked down to black people … Black men don’t need to be torn down. They don’t need to be condescended to. They don’t need to be scolded. What they need is a president who sees them, hears them and makes their lives better — just like every other American.”

The Collapse of Identity Politics

This ongoing crisis is a textbook example of the problem with left-wing identity politics. After a while, voters become fully aware that they are being prodded to vote for a candidate because of the color of her skin rather than the content of her character. Demanding loyalty to their race is downright insulting. Joe Biden got away with such patronizing when he said in 2020, “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” Trump, on the other hand, made a simple appeal to downtrodden black voters wary of more broken promises from drive-by Democrats: “What the hell have you got to lose?” Perhaps these voters are now starting to buy that argument.

Ditch the Diatribe – Try This!

Would Donald Trump demand that all white voters support him because they are also Caucasian? Imagine the reaction if he said that. For all the explosively controversial remarks he has survived since entering the political realm, he would almost certainly lose the election with such a statement. And yet, Obama has done exactly that. Essentially, he is lashing out at voters who, like everyone else, can hardly afford groceries, gas, or home heating as they fall further into debt since Joe Biden became president, while the neediest among them are being shoved aside for the sake of millions of illegal immigrants who stormed the country once Biden opened the border.

There is scant evidence that this type of tactic is effective. Obama and Trump are alike in one respect. They are both larger-than-life figures whose appeal does not translate to substandard candidates they endorse. While Obama was instantly electric in his appeal to both black and white voters and scored two decisive victories, Harris dropped out of her 2020 campaign before the first vote was even cast. This brings to mind the massive rally in Philadelphia with Obama and seemingly every important Democrat and left-leaning celebrity on the night before the 2016 election. It didn’t work, in large part because the candidate could not close the deal by herself. The contrast between Obama and Clinton just reminded people of how weak a candidate Clinton was. Voters, especially those who are undecided, prefer a candidate who asks for their vote herself. If she doesn’t, it signals a lack of capacity to persuade, a crucial skill for any prospective president.

If this election does turn out the way Republicans hope, one can imagine a casual conversation sometime in the future about minority voters, and someone mentioning the second term of Donald Trump. And one could envision a response along the lines of, “Oh yeah, 2024 – wasn’t that the year when black and Latino voters finally refused to continue their blind loyalty to the Democratic Party?”

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Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

 

Read More From Tim Donner

Polls Are Becoming the New Word Salads

Confused by the polls? Join the party.

By Leesa K. Donner | Sep 24, 2024 @ Liberty Nation News, Tags: Articles, Opinion, Politics

“There’s a new poll out today.” Those words used to capture the attention of those who like to chew over politics. But things appear to be spiraling out of control this election season. If you’ve stopped picking up calls on your mobile phone, you may be the only person not to be polled this election year. That, of course, is a wild exaggeration, but somehow the plethora of polls makes it feel this way.

The Polls Salad Bar Is Open for Business

The daily dump of presidential surveys is getting utterly ridiculous and impossible to analyze. Reviewing poll numbers released just last week illustrates the problem. In the (marginally) swing state of North Carolina, three surveys were conducted Sept. 15-21. The New York Times/Siena has Donald Trump up by two points; The Hill/Emerson poll has Kamala Harris up one point; the Carolina Journal/Cygnal poll shows Trump up by one. What information can the average American glean from such numbers? Not much.

One could postulate that the Tar Heel State polls are the exception and not the rule. Just for argument’s sake, let’s look at the surveys focusing on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, where the political class appears to be in a frenzy. The last four polls show Trump up in two of them and tied in the other two. All of these surveys were conducted on or after Sept. 12. It sounds like Trump is beginning to take the lead in the Keystone State until one glances at the four previous polls – all of which, again, were conducted in September. In these surveys, Harris beats Trump by five, four, three, and three points, respectively. So, who’s really up in PA? Toss a coin, and you might get closer to reality.

As the seesaw continues to undulate, it’s beginning to feel like the more information we have, the less we know. A couple of negative conclusions can be extracted from too much polling information. First, those trying to read the electoral tea leaves may decide to stop reading individual polls and pay attention only to the poll averages. All one needs to do is review how that worked out in 2016 to understand the pitfalls of poll averages, as The Hill reported:

“[P]ublic polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.”

Often, the crosstabs in a political survey make all the difference in its credibility, so not digging into a poll doesn’t help the situation and could make it worse.

The second pitfall of conflicting information in polls is concluding that such fluctuations mean a tight race is inevitable. The thinking goes something like this: With only one or two points separating the candidates, no one is technically ahead because it shows only that all the results are within the margin of error. Well, maybe or maybe not. Recently, several political analysts have made a case for a potential Trump landslide. If conflicting poll information means a close race, how could they possibly come to such a conclusion?

Close polling data could signal something else entirely, and this is a theory worth considering. What if those answering the surveys are not comfortable sharing their voting information? This reluctance on the part of “shy voters” may reflect their concern that revealing their true intention seriously impacted polling data in 2016, and as a result Trump’s election victory was, for many Americans, entirely unexpected.

Considering that the political environment has gotten only more toxic since then, doesn’t it stand to reason that the electorate would be less rather than more willing to share their voting preferences?

Bored? Check This Out!

Another hypothesis questions the integrity of polls. Many political analysts believe polls are designed to support a predetermined outcome. The Hill quoted one Republican pollster who asserted, “I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for somebody if you think they’re going to lose? And they’re trying to drive down fundraising and donations.”

Then there is the theory of genuine independent voters. Roughly 40% of Americans now claim no party allegiance, but that doesn’t mean they don’t lean one way or another. Many independents may have voted Democratic in the last four elections – they just don’t want to be part of the Democratic Party and all that it entails.

More data does not necessarily mean more knowledge. It could mean more confusion. And that is the way it’s looking this time around. Unless you have the time to dig deeply into each and every poll to determine its legitimacy, you might want to take these surveys with a grain of salt, which is always an excellent way to top off your plate from the salad bar. This way, you’ll be “unburdened by what has been,” if we take Kamala Harris at her word.

~

Liberty Nation does not endorse candidates, campaigns, or legislation, and this presentation is no endorsement.

 

Read More From Leesa K. Donner

News and Views

By Rich Kozlovich 

 

Well, it looks like we have another Road to Damascus convert.  Alan Dershowitz has dropped out of the Democrat party for its blatant antisemitism.  Okay, I get that, but he just now noticed?  What about all the other vile stuff they've been promoting for all of his life, and he never noticed that?  Amazing!  Well, this epiphany doesn't make up for all the damage he's supported for all these years, and at his age, he won't have to wait long to answer for it.   

The Chaney's, daughter and father, have gone off the deep end supporting Kamala, because Trump is such a danger to democracy, and Bush says he's not endorsing anyone.  It's not just Trump either, Liz is also supporting Ted Cruz's opponent.  

 

So, what's that all mean?   

 

It means they support antisemitism, higher prices for all the essentials, higher energy costs, higher taxes, outrageous theft by the federal government on "unrealized capital gains" , more regulations, more spending, more debt, more government bureaucracy, they love the CCP, and less freedom.  But it's Trump who is the danger to democracy.  The Chaney's have no shame, and could care less what their choice of ignorant arrogance would do to America, and now conservatives will shun them and the left will laugh at them.  What fools, right along with Mitt Romney, Dennis Kucinich, and Susan Collins. 

You know that little voice in your head that keeps you from saying the things you shouldn't say?  Yeah, well, I don't have that, but entirely too many pretty good writers do.  Let's start out with this foundational reality!   Polls are crap, and it drives me crazy when conservatives cite polls in states claiming Kamala Harris is ahead, which Brian C. Joondeph a regular writer at American Thinker does.  However, he also had this to say about Colorado:

Surprisingly illegal immigration and the border fall far behind the economy. That may change as news of Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment buildings in Aurora Colorado, Chicago, Dallas, and New York City makes headlines. Many other cities likely have or will face the same.  An illegal alien truck driver killed a Colorado man and received less than a one-year prison sentence. Deportation? Fat chance in sanctuary Colorado. Voters may change the 2024 election mantra to “It’s the border, stupid.”

 

Then we have The Harris Mystique by Matthew Continetti outlining how Kamala has crashed and burned consistently and yet is now running for President saying the Pravda media is totally committed to Kamala, with "84 percent positive coverage" in her first month as a candidate, a far cry from Trump’s 89 percent negative coverage during the same period", but claims, "worshipful press coverage doesn’t fully explain the reversal of Harris’s fortunes." I disagree.  Any upswing, which I don't really believe exists, is a massive nationally organized effort by the left following the Goebbels philosophy of keep repeating lies until they become truth. 

 

The Pravda media is so contemptible and so vile no corruption of thought, lies, or the twisting of facts will stand in the way of this organized effort to totally scam the public into believing Kamala is sharp as a tack..... ooops!    Isn't that what they told the world about Biden?  Then the very next day after his debate with Trump demanded he drop out of the race because he was a babbling idiot.  Remarkable!  You gotta really admire those media guys, they really know a babbling idiot when they see one.  That's meant as a snark for those who don't get it.  

The Biden/Harris administration imposed almost $1.4 trillion in regulations, wants to end right to work laws, and tax the Nation to the tune of another $5 trillion of new taxes over 10 years, and this is the trend in each and every state run by the Democrats, and seemingly the left loves it.  Those a just a few of the stunningly unpleasant realities of Kamala Harris the Pravda media will continue to hide, misdirect, forget about, twist the facts, lie, and falsely accuse other's of doing the things the Obama cabal are in reality actually doing.   They are cause of higher costs.  An administration so filled with incompetence and stupidity, I would think they should scare everyone with their treasonous actions and decisions. 

Now here's something really resonating with conservatives.  Trump has promised to purge the federal bureaucracy by creating "..... a Government Efficiency Commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government — and making recommendations for drastic reforms.” And that needs done badly.  

We know the very young are rarely impacted by covid, and we also know the damage these false vaccines represent to those who've taken the shots, and the damage is serious. So, what's the deep state wanting to do, inject very small children with these false vaccine, gene altering chemical compounds.  Some one needs to go to jail over this, and it's long overdue for Americans to recognize these "seven myths" of our medical system, and the damage these "myths' represent.   

In western civilization the idea of a religious war is anathema.  There's only one problem with that.  Western civilization has no say in that.  If a religious movement decides to declare war based on their religious principles, then it's a religious war, and Islam has been at war with civilization for all of it's existence, including today!  We really do need to get that.

The lawfare claims by the left against Trump are starting to come unglued.  A Manhattan attorney working for..or with.. Bragg admitted it was all a corrupt farce for personal political gain for Bragg.  Judge Merchan has decided to put off his sentencing until after the election in order make sure there's no appearance of election interference.  Hogwash, this whole trail was clearly set to do just that. It's being claimed he fears sentence him now because no matter what schemes he's hatched, Trump's polls skyrocketed, and he fears sentencing him will help in his re-election bid.  Well, there may be some truth to that, but what I believe is he sees the handwriting on the wall, and he knows if trump is elected there's going to be an RICO investigation on all this lawfare corruption nationwide, and he'll be a part of it. 

 

 The Congressional Black Caucus has issued new guidelines for corporations to use in adopting their diversity, equity and inclusion policies, as if this is anything but a scam.  DEI is nothing short of the acceptance of incompetence without consequence, and they need to be told to shove it.  If they really want to improve the conditions in black America they need to stop lying and recognize it's not racism that's black America's problem.  It's single parent families, and the black churches bear a large degree of responsibility for that.

 

For years politics in black America was centered in black churches, assuming that's still true, what have we seen? Radicals like Jeremiah Wright, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Amos Brown, and others, blaming all of their problems on whites. Black academics are equally to blame. Not one word about illegitimacy, the real root of their problems.

If you want a stable successful society, you start with a stable foundation, the family, made up of a man, a woman, and their children. Let them address that, and then we won't have to talk about DEI. 

Remember when the Pravda media highlighted .....  24/7 ...with outrage I might add... every time Bush went to his home in Texas insisting he was neglecting his duties and responsibility as President?    Well, it appears Ole Joe spent over forty percent of his time on vacation, and no one noticed.  Imagine that.  

Ya just gotta really hand it to those media boys, they really know what's going on.  Unless they don't what you to know what's going on, and don't want you to know what's going on.  

Now, who could find fault wit that?