Pollsters Should Poll Themselves

By Robin Itzler

Editor's Note:  This is one of the commentaries selected from Robin's weekly newsletter Patriot Neighbors. Any cartoons appearing will have been added by me.  If you wish to get the full edition, E-mail her at PatriotNeighbors@yahoo.com to get on her list, it's free. RK 

 

The 2024 presidential election confirmed that most pollsters were not polling to obtain a snapshot of how voters were leaning, but rather to INFLUENCE voters. They matriculated who they would poll to get the responses they wanted, in hopes of encouraging voters before Election Day. 

Some examples that show polling should go the way of Nehru jackets:

• The weekend before Election Day, the supposedly reliable Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer announced that Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Trump won Iowa by 13 points!
• CNN’s October 28 poll: - Showed Harris winning Wisconsin by a massive six points. Trump won the Badger State by less than 1 point!
• Had Harris with a 5-point lead in Michigan. Trump won the Great Lake State by 1.4 points!
• Claimed Harris would win Arizona by 1-point. Trump won the Grand Canyon State by a whopping 5.5 points! (Side note: We do not believe that Arizonians who voted for Donald Trump would then vote for the progressive Ruben Gallego. How fast can you say “stop the steal?”)
• Had Harris winning North Carolina by 1 point. Trump won the Tar Heel State by an impressive 3.3 points!
• The NBC/Marist poll on October 30 showed Harris up in Michigan. As noted, Trump won the state by 1.5 points.
• In New Jersey, the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University (just the name makes you think they know what they are doing) projected Harris’s margin of victory in the Garden State would be 20 points. Harris won the deep blue state by a mere 5 percent!
• The New York Times-Sienna College poll was off by quite a lot. Their final poll had Harris winning Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Will pollsters disappear in 2028? We doubt it. Instead, many will say that Donald Trump, who outperformed expectations in three straight presidential elections, was the exception to the rule. Liberal leaning pollsters are probably already writing poll results that show Gavin Newsom winning the election.