By Steve McCann
Many have brought up the issue of changing demographics as being a major hurdle for any Republican candidate for president, but in particular Donald Trump. Just how daunting is this task?
In 1988, 85% of the voting electorate was white, in 2012 it was 72%. It is projected to fall to 69% in 2016. The major demographic change: Hispanics were 12% of the vote in 2012, this year it is expected to be 15%, although some projections have it as high as 17%. The African-American (-1 percentage point) and Asian (+1 percentage point) vote combined will be stable at around 16%.
Of the 69 percent white vote women will be approximately 35.5 points and men 33.5.
Therefore, white women and minorities will, combined, represent between 66.5% to 67.5% of the voting electorate in 2016. Trump is polling terribly with this overall group either in favorability or head to head with Hillary Clinton. In order to win in November, Trump will need, at a minimum, to do the following:......Read more
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