Election 2016: First Republican Debate

By Rich Kozlovich

*  Updated at 7:58 AM below.

First of all they all can be grateful I wasn’t I charge of asking the questions.  With the exception of Paul and Cruz, the rest answered everything except what they were asked, and both Cruz and Paul went by way of Chicago to get to Miami with their answers.  All during the debate the candidates answers were filled with logical fallacies.  That drives me crazy, and I would have called them on it.  I do think the moderators did a very credible job otherwise, and it's probably just as important  as to what a candidate doesn't say as to what he does say.  All in all - kudos to Fox, Meghan Kelly, Chris Wallace and Bret Baier.

Here’s my take on this debate.

Donald Trump  – I’ve stated right along that Trump is a one trick pony and his support was an “up yours” support by a frustrated conservative base the leadership has ignored.  And his conservative credentials are as leaky as a flour sieve, which he demonstrated,  and his numbers will continue to plummet from today onward.  I’ve also stated he will do “for” the Republican party what Bernie Sanders will do “to” the Democrats.  Force them to their base.  He did say one thing that’s absolutely correct.   None of the candidates would be talking about immigration or be taking the strong stand they’ve adopted if it hadn’t been for him.  His comments were largely logical fallacies.  After immigration his lips just moved, but he didn't say anything worth listening to.

Jeb Bush – Polished but seriously flawed as a "full time" conservative, and that came through on his comments on immigration and Common Core.  His comments were also filled with logical fallacies. 

Gov. Scott Walker – He acquitted himself well, but he failed to explain how someone could get from where his views on immigration and global warming (although global warming wasn't discussed it's indicative of what may be wrong with him) to what he believes now.  He’s been a successful conservative governor and he’s tough, but what will he believe in the future if he becomes president?

Mike Huckabee – He’s the big winner in my opinion tonight, but he’s got baggage on immigration as all the rest, with the exception of Cruz.  He’s another “compassionate” conservative and seems to be molded more by emotion rather than history or reality!  Why he believes the things he says he believes is an enigma to me, and what he will believe in the future is somewhat murky. 

Ben Carson – Came across well and likable, but weak.

Sen. Ted Cruz – Came across strong but has a strange way of expressing himself.  That will pass as people get used to his style and start listening to what he’s saying.  And what he’s saying is he was the only “full time” conservative on the stage.  The rest have a history where their opinons on critical issues are like bouncing balls. 

Sen. Marco Rubio – Came across very well, although he looked rehearsed and has baggage on immigration.  Will he believe what he’s saying now if he’s president?  He dulled the comments by more experienced candidates by saying what they did in the past may be nice but we need to be more concerned what's to be done now.  Indicating he's not impressed with what they've been saying over the years. 

Rand Paul – Answered the questions but was a bit juvenile in his manner.  I don't think he will make it to the primaries but if he does he will be out after the first primaries.

Gov. Chris Christie – Christie sounded good, and he’s tough.  But he’s arrogant, petulant, touchy and his comment about how much he’s done for New Jersey is a logical fallacy, which he acknowledged regarding criticism about what a mess New Jersey is, saying it was a real mess when he took over and is much better now.  That’s like saying I put a really heavy coat of paint on a termite infested house. 

Ohio Gov. John Kasich – John Kasich came across quite well, on the surface.  His comments about tax cuts, jobs created, etc. are only partially true.  His comments about Medicare expenditures are incorrect, and as time goes by he will suffer from a lack of accuracy and conservative depth.  Although he’s clearly far more comfortable on stage than almost everyone he’s a master of logical fallacies, although I don’t think in his case it’s deliberate.  Trying to get Kasich to stay on topic is a Sisyphean task.  Two things are clear about Kasich.   Since Kasich has decided he has the right to define conservatism as he sees fit, he would be a really good Democratic candidate, and it’s now clear he’s a bad theologian.

Who will make it to the primaries?

Trump is done and may not even be in the third debate, and if he survives to the primaries he will be done after the first or second, provided he doesn’t declare as an independent, which I don't think he will.  Although Trump is all about Trump, starting a third party candidacy is expensive, and I don't think anyone except Soros would fund him to be the spoiler as was Perot giving us Clinton.  I don't think even Trump isn't that big a fool and I do believe him when he says the country is a mess and Obama and his allies are responsible.  He's a businessman and has seen the economic devastation caused by the left.  He won't want another Obama in office, whether that candidate is wearing a dress or not. 

 

Jeb Bush, Gov. Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Sen. Ted Cruz Sen. Marco Rubio will make it to the primaries. 

I don’t think Ben Carson, Sen. Rand Paul, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich will make it past the third debate.  If by some chance they do they will be out after the first or second early primary.  Especially after New Hampshire.  Up there they have to sit down at lunch counters and actually talk to people.  That’s where Kasich lost the last time he ventured into the primary arena. 

In the end there will be Cruz, Rubio and Walker. 

* Update - I didn't watch the earlier five o'clock debate so I can't really speak on it except it would appear that Carly Fiorina did extremely well according to reports.  I have heard her in the past and it’s clear she’s smart, knowledgeable and tough.  As the debates continue she may step up in place of one of these other candidates.