Pugachev Unrest Shows Russia Faces Authoritarian or Democratic Disintegration

The Pugachev events like “a magic crystal” allow one to look into Russia’s future, a future that will involve either an authoritarian disintegration resembling that of the former Yugoslavia and likely extending over several years or a democratic one that could occur more quickly and easily, according to a Russian analyst now living abroad, Paul Goble writes.

In a 2000-word article posted on Friday, Leonid Storch bases his conclusion on three aspects of contemporary Russian life: First, the share of the Russian population that benefits from and therefore is willing to support the current regime is declining, especially in the regions outside of Moscow.

Second, the regime is unwilling to conduct dialogue about or even acknowledge the presence of three distinct conflicts – between liberalism and authoritarianism, between the regions and Moscow, and among ethnic groups – and the propensity of these conflicts to coalesce thus making the resolution of any one of them more difficult if not impossible.

And third, the combination of massive corruption in the elites and the absence of popular participation in the government are now so widespread that in the absence of truly revolutionary change one or the other of these or quite possibly a combination of the two will survive the departure of Putin….To Read More…..