The Chinese Threat Factor in Russian Politics

By Vassily Kashin

Resume: Russia’s goal is to acquire reliable guarantees of its own security with regard to China, while avoiding full involvement in the growing Sino-American global rivalry and reaping all the benefits a third party can expect in such a situation.

Russian-Chinese relations have reached an unprecedented level of trust and cooperation in recent years. Moscow and Beijing act concertedly on the majority of international issues, and this is not just some passive support for each other but joint efforts to map out political moves. Military-technical cooperation in 2011-2012 basically returned to the “golden age” of the 1990s, with annual supplies coming close to $2 billion. In addition, the two countries have been conducting ever larger military exercises, marked by an increasingly higher degree of interaction.

Joint sincere efforts are being taken to strengthen humanitarian contacts, ties between public organizations and cooperation in the field of education. Government officials of the two countries share the view that the “Chinese threat” is a myth that benefits mainly the United States. Russian and Chinese leaders have repeatedly said that their political relations are based on trust and that their countries would never regard each other as foes. The topic of possible threats from China is a taboo for Russian officials participating in public discussions….To Read More….

My Take – I have written about this in the past, and suggested that China’s leadership is in trouble due to a great many factors, including massive corruption, and if things got really difficult they might wish to start a war as a distraction to the mess they have created.  Wars give societies a sense national crisis, thus generating a sense of national solidarity. 

I thought Russia would be the enticing target for the Chinese because Russia’s military is filled with rusty inadequate equipment, and drunks.  This still could be a scenario that is played out, but I have decided that if they choose to start a small temporary shooting match it will be with Japan.  There is a deep hatred of the Japanese in China as a result of what the Japanese did to them during WWII.  That animosity could be made to the surface very easily.  They have manipulated their society in the past toward such ends, and using this issue over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands could be the trigger to set it all off.  It is clear to me that they want to give someone in their corner of the world a good smack in the mouth as an object lesson to all those they are bickering with, which includes Japan, Russia, India and the Philippines.  

They seem to be going out of their way to pick fights with their neighbors.  The Chinese are great believers in “lesson” warfare.  Start a small war; kill a few people; scare far more people; make someone an object lesson as intimidation to everyone else.  They have done it in the past and the Chinese mental paradigm on internal and external affairs is filled with historical precedent, and their history is a long one.  They don't just read history; they study history as lesson plans. 

This was foundational during the reign of the emperors and it seems likely to me this continues since the books the Mandarins studied are still in existence.  I have said that nothing is what it seems in China, except for one thing.  They will not fail to utilize events of their history as foundation thinking for future actions.  I believe any good China scholar could predict their general actions on any given issue except for one thing.  The problem is figuring out when they will act or if they will act.   And if they don’t act; why they didn’t act.  That is why nothing is what it seems in China. 

This article is a three pager and worth the read.  Please take the time to do so.  You may also wish to view my China Page.