Saturday, October 27, 2012

Nothing Is Ever As It Seems In China!

By Rich Kozlovich
These next few articles are interesting in many ways.  First, we have to understand that whenever you read anything about China you must see past what is written.  China is a complicated country, with a long profound history.  There are a number of things that we know are going on for sure that doesn’t come clear in these articles. 
China houses most of its population, which is one quarter of the world’s population, in an area that is about the size of everything east of the Mississippi River in the United States, and they are ethnic Han.  The rest of China is sparsely populated and mostly occupied by other ethnic groups that hate the Han and consider the central government illegitimate, and the general population has grown to doubt the legitimacy of the central government as a result of all the incompetence and corruption. 
The government’s one child policy has created a large male/female inbalance in the population as a result there isn’t enough women to go around.  This creates serious social consequences and dissatisfaction.   Pollution is terrible and the government is spending huge amounts of money to keep everyone working, including building cities that no one occupies, and the banking system has troubles the government hides.
What is clear is the Chinese leadership is striving for two things.  Social and economic stability and continued central control of all things in the hands of the communist leadership…..and make no mistake about it….they’re still commies. So what do dictatorships do to distract the population?  They start a war!  Only this is far more problematic than it was decades ago.  Who do they start a war with?
Russia shares a huge border with China and there have always been border disputes regarding ownership of certain areas.  Russia has a large army that has a serious problem with alcohol abuse, and a navy that is a rusting hulk.  They also have a shrinking population which is surrounded by former Soviet and client states that hate and distrust them.  Their big income for Russia was energy and that may end as fraking in Europe is going to destroy that.  They also have such massive corruption that, like China, undermines the countries stability.   However, Russia is still huge and attacking it would require logistics and planning for a long range war; which I don’t think the Chinese are wanting, and may not be capable of.  Furthermore the Russians have a huge nuclear arsenal and I am sure they would use it without hesitation and they could totally destroy China.  Plus this could potentially drag NATO and the UN into it.
So who do you start a ruckus with?  Japan, India or the Philippines?  I say Japan.  Why? 
There are a handful of tiny Islands off the coast of China known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan which are barren and uninhabited.  These five islands “encompass a grand total of seven square kilometers” and were won from the Chinese in the first Sino-Japanese war of 1895.  But after 1968 the Chinese decided that they wanted them back; after it was discovered “the islands may be sitting on top of huge oil and gas reserves.”
This gives the Chinese a potentially legitimate gripe, especially when you consider what the Japanese did to them in WWII and were then the losers of that war.  By pushing this they then bring into play far more than these islands and its potential wealth.  They create a Munich Moment.  The real goal of the Chinese government is to be the big dog in the South China Sea and ultimately all of South East Asia.  If they push this and win; it seriously weakens American influence, militarily and economically.  The rest of the countries in the area then can be much more easily bullied into falling into line, including India and the Philippines, and of course even Australia. 
As you read the series of articles I have linked think about all of this.  But remember…Nothing is ever as it seems in China.    

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