The Psychology of Belief
By Robert Romano
The National Weather Service called for a moderate snowstorm in the Washingon, D.C. area on Jan. 17.In the evening leading up to it, I expressed some skepticism as the temperatures were hovering around 45 degrees, and typically for there to be real accumulation on the roadways, there needs to be some subfreezing weather in advance of the snowfall.
However, I was assured by friends that it was going to snow, and the drive home would be miserable, because the government said so. Thursday morning I awoke and noted that at 7 am, it was still 43 degrees, and expressed my skepticism that we were going to have a major snow event. Once again, I was assured that the temperature was going to drop precipitously throughout the day, and we were in for it, because the Weather Service had said so.……..And if the government tells us that we had the warmest year in history in 2012, then it must be true……... Maybe not……. climate change by nature is not as simple as a ground temperature reading, and fortunately, we also have satellites which measure temperatures free from the surface vagaries. If both the satellite data and the ground data match, then you have a headline. As far as the claim that 2012 was the warmest on history in the continental U.S., the satellite data contradicts the ground data.
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