Who Raises A Banner That Says: I Stand For Consensus!

Definition leads to clarity, clarity leads to understanding, understanding leads to good decision making.

By Rich Kozlovich

Prologue:  In years gone by before I started Paradigms and Demographics I published a weekly e-newsletter called Green Notes that was sent out to people all over the nation who were involved in the pest control industry, and then others asked to be on the list, even some from England, Canada, and one from Germany. 

In 2007 I decided to go with this blog instead.  However, in most of my old Green Notes newsletters I had a section called, “Quotes of the Week”.  So, a number of years go as I was going through all of the quotes I couldn’t help thinking how insightful some of them were.  Then.... all of a sudden ..... I had a SHAZAM moment.   I thought why not create a readable article out of nothing but these quotes even if they have to be paraphrased?

Well, those "SHAZAM" moments can turn into a lot of darn work.  I said then:

"I am going to have to watch those SHAZAM moments! I keep forgetting that I have a job that interferes with my life; if I had known how much work this was going to turn out to be I wouldn’t have undertaken this task in the first place".  

But I'm now retired and I came across this once again, and I like it, and as I re-read this I thought it's more profound now that it was then.  Besides, all the work has already been done, and it seems a shame to waste it, so, once again,  here it is, and I think it's an excellent history lesson to for our time.   I originally published this in 2011.  

For me, pragmatism is not enough, nor is that fashionable word consensus. To me consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects—the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot get agreement on the way ahead. 

What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner "I stand for consensus"? Everyone carries a part of society on his shoulders; no one is relieved of his share of responsibility by others. And no one can find a safe way out for himself if society is sweeping towards destruction. Therefore everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle. None can stand aside with unconcern; the interests of everyone hang on the result. Whether he chooses or not, every man is drawn into the great historical struggle, the decisive battle into which our epoch has plunged us.

Opposing this new authoritarian collectivist green offensive is "The Battle of Our Times”. For me, the laws of physics are not subject to change by virtue of a public consensus or declarations of highly placed politicians and government science bureaucrats. We're under attack by a lot of alarmists. We must learn and remember that the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. 

The study of history is a powerful antidote to contemporary arrogance. It is humbling to discover how many of our glib assumptions, which seem to us novel and plausible, have been tested before, not once but many times and in innumerable guises; and discovered to be, at great human cost, wholly false. I have said more than once that history never repeats itself: what happens is that people keep forgetting it. Show me someone who does not read books and I will show you someone lost in the fog of propaganda, manipulation, and the lies that pass for the news of the day. Books can tell you who you are, what you believe, and why. They always leave you changed in some fashion.

Fortunate is the person who can look back at his or her life and say, "I would do it all again, and in the same way.” Most of us mortals have made mistakes, sometimes too many to count. Some mistakes have to do with career; some have to do with money; some have to do with other poor decisions and poor choices – of course reconsidered with the benefit of hindsight. 

But the ones that cause the most regret and the most pain have to do with our treatment of other people – especially those who have loved and trusted us. We finally discover the value and worth of what we once had and failed to appreciate. Let all who are here remember that we are on the stage of history, and that whatever our station may be, and whatever part we have to play, great or small, our conduct is liable to be scrutinized, not only by history, but by our own descendants.

The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. Losing liberty over a theoretical threat is the main concern here (no one has ever been killed by manmade global warming. because there is no way to distinguish manmade warming from natural). 

We have all been lied to by a shameless confederation of scientists, their professional publications, their formal organizations, and politicians seeking to use this big scare to advance their careers and agendas. The problem for all of them is that the real science does not support green views and never did. Real scientists (branded as dissenters, skeptics, and deniers) held true to the principles of science, knowing that it would eventually end this vast and terrible hoax.

We keep hearing outrageous statements from the greenies claiming that modern living is killing us and they repeat things they know are false over and over again. The Bolsheviks discovered that truth does not matter so long as there is reiteration. The greenies have no difficulty whatever in countering a fact by a lie which, if repeated often enough and loudly enough, becomes accepted by the people. It ain’t what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's the things you know for sure that just ain't so. Think about the things that have improved our lives the most over the past century – medical advances, the transportation revolution, huge increases in consumer goods, dramatic improvements in housing, the computer revolution. 

The people who created these things – the doers – are not popular heroes. Society’s heroes are the activist talkers who complain about the doers. Almost no one knows who Norman Borlaug was, and yet he may have saved a billion lives from starvation and prevented malnutrition on a massive scale worldwide. Most everyone knows who Rachel Carson was and it can be reasonably claimed that she is responsible for the unnecessary deaths of tens of millions and the illness of billions since the ban on DDT.

In 1900, the world supported 56 billion human life years, notes climatologist John Christy: 1.6 billion people times a 35-year average life span. Today it supports 429 billion life years: that's 6.5 billion (2011 figures) people times a 66-year average life span – and they live far better than anyone in history. Then ask yourself….do I really want to abandon what we have to live in squalor and dystopia? Because that is the alternative!

Greenies don't like tidal power, it might upset the fish you know! And coal, nuclear and hydroelectric are positively EVIL! Windmills are no good because they kill birds and bats and tidal power is also a no no. These are all things they supported and then they turned against, just like bio-fuels. There's just no such thing as a happy Greenie. What is the alternative? What will make the greenies happy?  We all commit suicide. 

Make no mistake: Living green is really about someone else micro-regulating you -- downsizing your dreams and plugging each one of us into a brand new social order for which we never bargained. Journalists have generally given up on seeking to understand science, but instead look for the next scientist who will say something strange so that they have a “story”. 

Credibility has to be earned, and once it’s squandered may never be recovered, and with the internet we have discovered that the media squandered any credibility they had many years ago.

Let’s just take Global Warming scares promoted by the media. Newspapers should think about the damage they are doing to many persons, particularly young kids, by spreading the exaggerated views of a human impact on climate. As far as I can see the IPCC 'Global Temperature' is wrong. Temperature is fluctuating but it is still most places cooler than in the 1930s and 1940s. It will take about 800 years before the water level has increased by one meter". 

Changes in solar irradiation have been the dominant causes of changes in climate. Volcanic eruptions can have caused some cooling events and greenhouse gases may have contributed to the increase in temperature over the last decades. However, the influence of solar variability has been the major forcing factor and will probably also remain so in the future. Every totalitarian regime needs its defining myth. With the Nazis, it was the “Aryan” fantasy of racial purity. With the USSR, it was the dictatorship of the proletariat. With secularized, semi-pagan Western societies in historic decline, it is global warming. 

Environmentalists-even mainstream environmentalists, are less concerned about any crisis posed by global warming than they are eager to command human behavior and restrict economic activity. Their true plans and ambitions?  Stop economic development and return mankind centuries back. They are interested in their businesses and their profits made with the help of politicians. Take away the grant money and they will go away.

Why are economic conditions chaotic? The reason is simple. Americans no longer possess the freedom to produce the goods and services required to maintain their former standard of living. Taxation – both direct and indirect through currency inflation – runaway government regulation and government-sponsored-and-encouraged litigation have reduced the productivity of Americans below that required to maintain their way of life. This tyranny – this economic slavery – has been produced entirely by the federal and state governments of the United States.

Science has traditionally been held in high esteem. That clearly is no longer the case. What has changed? The Holy Grail for most scientists is not truth but research grants. And the global warming scare has produced a huge downpour of money for research. Any mystery why so many scientists claim some belief in global warming? In science, refuting an accepted belief is celebrated as an advance in knowledge; in religion it is condemned as heresy, yet those who dared question the “consensus science” of the warmers were declared, skeptics and deniers such as the holocaust deniers.   In short…they were called heretics. 

What is the mission of the environmentalists? To spread their truth, no matter how many lies it takes. Green activists will always be outraged about something. What outrages them on any given day will depend on the emotions they are feeling on any given day. This is where I really have a problem with modern-day environmentalism; it confuses opinion with what we know to be true, and disguises what are really political agendas with environmental rhetoric. Those who talk about climate change are the same ones who occupy the tenth circle of Hell for in the eyes of many Americans: Politicians, the Media, Scientists, Educators, Hippies, and Showbiz types, making it a moral imperative to be against whatever it is they’re for.

The environmental movement I helped found has lost its objectivity, morality and humanity. The pain and suffering it is inflicting on families in developing countries must no longer be tolerated. Eco-Imperialism is the first book I’ve seen that tells the truth and lays it on the line. It’s a must-read for anyone who cares about people, progress and our planet.” – Patrick Moore, Greenpeace co-founder

It’s bad enough that politicians and scientists have been drinking the Kool-Aid, what is truly amazing is how many corporate types have been imbibing and buying into these anti-business Corporate Social Responsibility scenarios. When the corporate Neville Chamberlains ultimately forfeit their salaries, bonuses and their jobs thanks to their spineless leadership and the anti-capitalism cabal that now inhabits wine and cheese bars in the District of Columbia, I hope to be around to ask this simple question: “So, how’s that hope and change working out for you ?

Climate change is not a scientific problem that found political support; this is about eco-activists and politicians who found a scientific issue they feel can leverage them into power and control. The environment is a great way to advance a political agenda that favors central planning and an intrusive government. What better way to control someone’s property than to subordinate one’s private property rights to environmental concerns. 

If the congressional, administration. and activist conspirators behind this massive deceit were in the private sector – peddling bogus drugs, rather than bogus science – they’d quickly become convicts. Instead of jail time, though, they’ll probably get bonus checks. It is time to clean out the climate cesspool, and bring integrity, transparency and accountability back to science, law and public policy.

There is one good thing about the lunatic "global warming" catechism now taught our youth in the mandatory government youth propaganda camps: When they are finally forced to admit that the globe has been cooling again, not warming, for the past decade, yet proceed to demand precisely the same remedies for "global cooling" (which they will cleverly dub "climate change") as they did for "global warming" -- that is to say higher electric bills, more government controls, taxes sufficient to cripple our industrial economy and generally lower our standard of living in keeping with the world socialist doctrine that America and particularly the "capitalist rich" must be "punished" and "made to sacrifice" in penitence for our former prosperity -- there is finally a decent chance they'll simply be laughed out of town .

Recently I was foolish enough to try to reason with an environmentalist. But it became obvious that he had his mind made up and didn't want to hear any evidence to the contrary. The Pope is more likely to have read Karl Marx than an environmentalist is to have read even a single book that criticized environmentalism. The EPA's muddled machinations should not come as a surprise, because the agency long has been a haven for scientifically insupportable policies perpetrated by anti-technology ideologues in career and appointed positions, pouring out a lava flow of scientifically dubious regulations.

It has a sordid history of incompetence, duplicity, and pandering to the most extreme factions of the environmental movement, all of which appears to be accelerating. The environmental movement has become so radical as to be an easily identified hazard to American life, and the EPA is not on my list of favorite agencies. There is no dealing with the greenies. They will never be satisfied and as for those who wish to define green and adopt it as a business model and make the green movement partners of some sort; let me help you.  Green is a mixture of blue and yellow. That is the only factual definition of green that will stand the test of time. After that; any other definition is a corruption of a perfectly nice color. 

Remember, when you dance with the Devil you won’t call the tune, you won’t choose the dance, you won’t lead, you can’t change partners and you may not be allowed to leave the dance floor.

Quotes by: Alan Caruba, Arthur Robinson, Bob Parks, Dan Miller Dr. Jay Lehr, Dr. Roy Spenser. Dr. Wibjorn Karlen, Gerard Jackson, H. L. Mencken, Henry Miller, Gilbert Ross, James A. Peden, James Lewis, Jon Ray, Larry, Ludwig von Mises, Larry Elder, Margaret Thatcher, Mark Twain, Nancy Brown, Nick Nichols, Patrick Moore, Paul Driessen, Paul Johnson, Peter Mullen, Rich Kozlovich, Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius, Stephen Murgatroyd, Steve Milloy, Thomas Sowell, Vaclav Klaus, Vin Suprynowicz, Viv Forbes, Winston Churchill

Scapegoating Climate to Hide Callous Government Malfeasance

Abject failures from Biden, Newsom, LAFD and others can no longer be ignored 

By Paul Driessen 

Wildfires near Los Angeles have left Pacific Palisades looking like Dresden after the WWII fire-bombings. Over 12,000 homes, schools and businesses have been incinerated, dozens of people have died, at least 70,000 have been left homeless, and fires still rage. AccuWeather estimates that just two of the fires will destroy $135-150 billion in property! It’s a doubly horrific tragedy, because most of the death and devastation could have been prevented.   

California has 33,000,000 acres of federal, state and private forestland – equivalent to Wisconsin. As the state’s population expanded, forests and wildlife increasingly merged with human habitats. And yet federal and state land managers – compelled by ideology, activists, legislators and judges – have steadfastly refused to permit timber cutting, tree thinning or brush removal, or take other actions that would reduce the likelihood of conflagrations.

So many trees are so jammed together now that they’re starved for space, water, nutrients and sunlight. Many are diseased. They are skinny matchsticks, primed to erupt in flames. Some 36,000,000 trees died just in 2022, across just 8% of these forestlands. But even dead and diseased trees are rarely removed.  Rainy fall and winter months stimulate tree, brush and grass growth. Parched summers dry everything out. Extended dry periods leave all this fuel ready to ignite for more months.

Lightning, sparks from cars or power lines, campfires and arsonists set areas aflame. Dry Santa Ana winds (40-70 mph, with gusts of 120-150 mph) whip fires into infernos. Depleted, defunded fire departments often arrive long after they could extinguish fires in their infancy. 

The conflagrations generate still more powerful winds that carry embers, branches, even small trees thousands of feet – often into communities that are ill-prepared to cope. This barely begins the litany of California government failures that help cause repeated fire calamities. However, state and local politicians adroitly avoid responsibility. Their most common excuse is manmade climate change. 

They even have a new fear-inducing term: hydroclimate whiplash! Fossil-fuel-driven climate change supposedly brought two exceptionally wet winters, spurring unprecedented plant growth – and then caused unprecedented arid conditions and previously unheard-of Santa Ana winds that made these infernos unpredictable but inevitable. Calling the massive, repeated government failures “incompetence” is too generous. Deliberate, callous, destructive malfeasance is more apt. Criminal may be appropriate.  

Governor Gavin Newsom wants a special session to discuss spending $25-50 million to “Trump-proof” state policies. He wants to use a new $10-billion “climate bond” to reduce farm and ranch greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, improve “equitable access to nature,” build more parks in “disadvantaged communities,” upgrade ports to handle deepwater offshore wind projects, and more.

California is still pouring billions into EV subsidies, its “clean” energy transition, and the $100-billion “bullet train to nowhere.” It’s spending more billions supporting “sanctuary” status for illegal immigrants, maintaining gender and DEI programs, and ministering to America’s largest number of homeless people – which will now include 70,000+ who’ve lost everything to the 2025 wildfires. 

One wonders whether they’ll treat these now-homeless taxpayers as well as they have illegal populations. Legislated restrictions on how companies may conduct fire-risk assessments and what rates they can charge for homeowners insurance in high-fire-risk areas have caused insurers to leave the state or stop issuing new policies. Hundreds of thousands of families are now uninsured, underinsured or dependent on the state’s FAIR Plan, which has only $385 million in reserves.

Meanwhile, California devoted only $2.6 billion to “forest and wildfire resilience” across all state-managed forestlands, including Topanga State Park, where the fires started, right next to what once was Pacific Palisades – versus $14.7 billion for EVs and “clean renewable energy.” 

With memories of the horrific 2018 Paradise (Camp) fire still causing nightmares, Mayor Karen Bass cut $17.6 million from the Los Angeles Fire Department budget, fired 100 firefighters who didn’t get Covid vaccines, and was partying at an embassy reception in Ghana as the fires erupted LA Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley (salary: $654,000) has spent millions on DEI programs and hiring more women, gays and minorities. Deputy/Diversity Chief Kristine Larson (salary: $307,000) says victims want to see emergency responders that “look like” them, and if she isn't strong enough to carry your husband out of a fire, he “got himself in the wrong place.” 

 They then failed to keep extra firefighters and firetrucks on duty as winds picked up just before the first forest fires were spotted – apparently to avoid paying overtime. That meant the LAFD couldn’t get there before fires roared out of control. Exhausted firefighters trying to save multi-million-dollar homes in Palisades ran out of water. A major reason was that LA Water and Power Department CEO Janisse Quiñones (salary: $750,000) had the 117-million-gallon Santa Ynez Reservoir drained to repair cracks in its base. 

A full reservoir would have replenished huge storage tanks that feed and pressurize local fire hydrants. Quiñones has said her “number one” priority is equity and social justice. Does that explain why the reservoir was drained in February 2024; no contractor was hired until November 2024; and even then no workers, equipment or materials were in place for 24/7 repairs? Just as callously incompetent, why was there no plan (or no action taken) to utilize fireboats, tugboats, barges and other vessels from Long Beach Harbor and the San Diego Navy Base? 

Many are equipped with water storage, pumps, hoses and nozzles. They could spray seawater directly on coastal homes or run hoses ashore to connect to fire hydrant systems. Some salt would remain in soils and kill some plants. However, the choice should be easy. Lose some prized vegetation to lingering salts – or have prized vegetation, homes, priceless heirlooms and artworks, and everything else incinerated by raging infernos. Homeowners never got to make that choice.  

The incineration of these forests and communities released far more greenhouse gases than all the state’s now-shuttered coal- and gas-fired power plants would have over many decades. Further complicating matters, the fires sent ash and pollutants into skies and left toxic chemicals behind – from plastics, paints, batteries, solvents and other materials in homes, buildings and vehicles. They’ve contaminated waters and soils, which could result in long cleanup and rebuilding delays.

Governor Newsom says he wants to expedite rebuilding. But LA health officials say debris removal and reconstruction are prohibited until licensed officials have carefully examined sites for toxics – dangerous or barely detectable levels? New building codes for fire resistance? Or homeowner demands for them? Citizens need to discuss all this at town hall meetings, before the next conflagration strikes – inevitably, if proper forest and water management and personnel hiring are not implemented immediately. 

Put simply, the woke idiots responsible for this rampant destruction and loss of life must be replaced with people who understand their Number One Job is protecting citizens from crime, fires and other natural disasters. Mr. Newsom also wants an investigation into the loss of fire hydrant water pressure. 

Californians have good reason to suspect he’s merely trying to find excuses and scapegoats, so that he and his favorite legislators can save their political hides. Golden Staters need to revamp their political, bureaucratic, policy and woke systems. They need to rely less on government – and more on themselves, the way the Getty Villa and several neighbors did in Malibu, thereby saving homes, treasures and lives. Otherwise, these needless tragedies will be repeated. 

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, environment, climate and human rights issues.

More Reasons For Cautious Optimism About The Demise Of The Green Energy Fantasy

December 23, 2024/ Francis Menton @ Manhattan Contrarian

My post on Saturday noted one big reason for optimism that the green energy fantasy is coming to the end of its run: the first country, Germany, has apparently begun to hit the green energy “wall.” Although Germany has never consistently reached even 50% of its electricity production from wind and solar, its ability to continue its green energy dreams has stalled: its electricity prices have soared, its manufacturing sector has been seriously undermined, its economy is in recession, and recently its green-promoting government has fallen. Its failed example now stands for others to see and avoid.

And as I look around at developments since the election, I see a number of other reasons to reinforce my cautious optimism. Maybe it’s that the political environment has changed, and maybe it’s that some people are starting to recognize that you can’t beat the laws of physics; and maybe it’s some of both. Here are examples:

Banks and investment firms quitting net zero “alliances”

On Saturday’s post, commenter William Bell asked “Who, exactly, is preventing third-world inhabitants from using wood, charcoal, coal, petroleum derivatives, and/or natural gas for fuel and by what means?” Apparently Mr. Bell, and maybe many others, is unaware of the many “alliances” of banks and investors seeking to starve fossil fuels of investment capital, and thus prevent third-world countries (and everybody else) from continuing to use them. Most of these groups are somehow directed and overseen by the UN. Examples of these groups include the Net Zero Banking Alliance (“Bank-led, UN-convened”), the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, and Climate Action 100+. I’m sure that I have not got them all. The members are, or have been, a who’s who of all the biggest banks and investment firms in the world.

The Center Square reports here on December 20 that two rather significant banks, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, have just quit the NZBA:

Not soon after the general election, and within two weeks of each other, two major financial institutions have left a United Nations Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA). This is after they joined three years ago, pledging to require environmental social governance standards (ESG) across their platforms, products and systems. 

House Judiciary Committee issues report accusing large money managers of running a “climate cartel”

On December 13, the House Judiciary Committee issued a Report titled “Sustainability Shakedown: How a Climate Cartel of Money Managers Colluded to Take Over the Board of America’s Largest Energy Company.” The Report documents the process by which the Climate Action 100+ alliance, “emboldened” by encouragement from the Biden/Harris administration, orchestrated replacement of three board members of Exxon in May 2021. The collusive actions of the largest investment firms and proxy advisors are described as a “cartel” clearly violative of the antitrust laws.

Red state AGs sue investment firms for antitrust violations for colluding on “climate” issues

Maybe it’s coincidence, but shortly before the issuance of the Judiciary Committee Report, an antitrust suit was brought on November 27 by eleven red state AGs, led by Ken Paxton of Texas, accusing participants in the investment industry of collusive conduct in enforcing “climate” and other “ESG” goals. The defendants in the case include the three largest money managers, Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street. From Bloomberg Law, November 27:

BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and State Street Corp. were sued by a group of states led by Texas for allegedly breaking antitrust law by boosting electricity prices through their investments, in the highest-profile lawsuit yet against the beleaguered ESG industry. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and 10 other states claim the money managers, as part of their green agenda, combined their market clout and membership in climate groups to pressure coal producers to cut output.

TotalEnergies pauses major wind farm in the waters off New York and New Jersey

Also on November 27, French energy giant TotalEnergies announced that it was “pausing” its major Attentive Energy off-shore wind project in the Atlantic Ocean off New York and New Jersey. In his announcement of the “pause,” Total’s Chairman specifically attributed the action to the anticipated policies of the incoming Trump administration. From Offshore, November 27:

TotalEnergies has reportedly paused development of the Attentive Energy wind farm it planned to build off the coast of New York and New Jersey, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said Tuesday at an energy industry conference in London. “I have decided to put the project on pause,” TotalEnergies’ CEO Patrick Pouyanne said at the Energy Intelligence Forum, according to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters. The decision is one of the first tangible signs of a halt in investment in renewable power sources due to the anticipated policies of the incoming Trump administration. Trump has vowed to stop offshore wind energy development “on day one” of his next term starting in January 2025.

The new Trump administration is still almost a month away from taking office, but already the anticipation of its arrival is having the positive effect of driving some of the parasites into hiding.

There are many more such positive developments out there. I’ll see if I can assemble a few more before year’s end. Meanwhile, I’m as hopeful as I’ve ever been that the green energy mania is fading.

Cautious Optimism On The Demise Of The Green Energy Fantasy

December 21, 2024 Francis Menton @ Manhattan Contrarian

It has been obvious now for many years to the numerate that the fantasy future powered by wind and sun is not going to happen. Sooner or later, reality will inevitably intrude. And yet, the fantasy has gone on for far longer than I ever would have thought possible. Hundreds of billions of dollars of government largesse have been a big part of the reason, going not just to green energy developers but also to academic charlatans and environmental NGOs to fan the flames of climate alarm.

It was three years ago, in December 2021, that I asked the question, “Which Country Or U.S. State Will Be The First To Hit The Green Energy Wall?” The “green energy wall” would occur when addition of wind and solar generators to the grid could no longer continue, either due to regular blackouts or soaring costs or both. Candidates for first to hit the wall considered in that post included California, New York, Germany and the UK. I wrote then:

All these places, despite their wealth and seeming sophistication, are embarking on their ambitious plans without ever having conducted any kind of detailed engineering study of how their new proposed energy systems will work or how much they will cost. . . . As these jurisdictions ramp up their wind and solar generation, and gradually eliminate the coal and natural gas, sooner or later one or another of them is highly likely to hit a “wall” — that is, a situation where the electricity system stops functioning, or the price goes through the roof, or both, forcing a drastic alteration or even abandonment of the whole scheme.

Three years on, it looks like Germany is winning the race to the wall. After a couple of decades of “Energiewende,” Germany has closed all of its nuclear plants and much of its fossil fuel capacity, with a huge build-out of wind and solar generation. How’s that going? The German site NoTricksZone posts today an English translation of a piece yesterday by Fritz Vahrenholt at the site Klimanachrichten (Climate News). The translated headline is “Two brief periods of wind doldrums and Germany’s power supply reaches its limits.” Excerpt:

From November 2 to November 8 and from December 10 to December 13, Germany’s electricity supply from renewable energies collapsed as a typical winter weather situation with a lull in the wind and minimal solar irradiation led to supply shortages, high electricity imports and skyrocketing electricity prices. At times, over 20,000 MW, more than a quarter of Germany’s electricity requirements, had to be imported. Electricity prices rose tenfold (93.6 €ct/kWh).

They avoided blackouts this time (barely) by importing more than a quarter of their electricity during the times of wind/sun drought. But the sudden demands for huge imports caused the spot price of electricity in the markets to soar, affecting not only Germany but also the neighbors who supplied the power. Vahrenholt provides this map indicating the prices reached during the December wind/sun drought:

€ 936.28/MWh is almost $1 per kWh. And that’s a wholesale price; retail would be at least double. By contrast, average U.S. electricity prices are well under $0.20/kWh.

Vahrenholt reasonably attributes the huge price spikes to elimination of reliable nuclear and fossil fuel plants, leaving Germany subject to the vagaries of the wind and sun:

The reason [for the price spikes]: The socialist/green led coalition government and the prior Merkel governments had decommissioned 19 nuclear power plants (30% of Germany’s electricity demand) and 15 coal-fired power plants were taken off the grid on April 1, 2023 alone.

From Wolfgang Große Entrup, Managing Director of the German Chemical Industry Association:

“It’s desperate. Our companies and our country cannot afford fair-weather production. We urgently need power plants that can step in safely.”

It is also clear from Vahrenholtz’s map how Germany’s sudden surge of demand affected the countries that supplied the imports on short notice — particularly Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Austria. Here is the reaction in Norway:

Norway’s energy minister in the center-left government, Terja Aasland, wants to cut the power cable to Denmark and renegotiate the electricity contracts with Germany. He is thus responding to the demands of the right-wing Progress Party, which has been calling for this for a long time and will probably win the next elections. According to the Progress Party, the price infection from the south must be stopped.

And the same from Sweden:

Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch was even clearer: “It is difficult for an industrial economy to rely on the benevolence of the weather gods for its prosperity.” And directly to Habeck’s green policy: “No political will is strong enough to override the laws of physics – not even Mr. Habeck’s.”

When the neighbors decline to continue to supply Germany with imports during its wind/sun droughts, then it will be blackouts instead of price spikes. We continue to move slowly toward that inevitability.

In other news from Germany, its auto industry is struggling (also from soaring energy prices, not to mention EV mandates), and its government has just fallen. Economic growth has ground to a halt. This is what the green energy wall looks like. Elections will be held some time in the new year.

I’m feeling cautiously optimistic that the world will wake up from the green energy bad dream before the damage turns to disaster. Our incoming U.S. administration seems to have caught on. Germany, sorry you had to be the guinea pig for this failed experiment.