Monday, May 29, 2017

North Korea Stares Into the Abyss

By George Friedman May 29, 2017

The U.S. Navy has announced that the USS Nimitz will leave Bremerton, Washington, on June 1, for the Western Pacific. This is the third carrier battle group to be sent to the region – enough to support a broader military mission – and it will take roughly a week to get to its station, after which it will integrate with the fleet.

So here’s the situation: Soon the United States will have its naval force in waters near North Korea. It already has strategic bombers in Guam, and it already has fighter aircraft in Japan and South Korea. The United States is preparing for war, which is still several weeks away – if indeed war actually breaks out. Between now and then, diplomacy will intensify. The international community will demand that North Korea abandon its nuclear program and allow inspectors to monitor the destruction of missiles, fissile material and reactors. And after Pyongyang refuses to heed those calls – which it probably will – the United States will have to decide whether it will strike.........And yet the United States is under pressure to strike. The pressure comes from the thought of a world in which North Korea has deliverable nuclear weapons. Pyongyang may not intend to use them or sell them right now, since its ultimate goal is survival, and having nuclear weapons deters attacks. But no one knows what North Korea will do in a decade or two.........

Alternatively, the United States is also more likely to make economic concessions and political guarantees to North Korea than perhaps it once was. Either way, Washington can’t allow nuclear weapons to exist, and it can’t allow Pyongyang to determine what happens........ Perhaps they knew they would inevitably cross the red line and decided to go for broke. Whatever the reason, they are now in a position where they probably can’t capitulate even if they wanted to..........If he were to capitulate, Kim would appear weak, and that is something he simply cannot afford.

Kim has only bad choices, but for a few reasons, the least bad choice for him is war.......... it seems to me that the U.S. cannot refuse to go to war unless North Korea capitulates. North Korea cannot capitulate............To Read More.... 

My Take - As all of this plays out it confirms my view of what must happen to avoid another Korean war - or even nuclear terrorism - the N. Korean military will have to take action to eliminate Kim as their leader, either through a coup or an assassination.  Even an economic sanction will devastate N. Korean society, which is already undernourished and has been told by their lunatic leader they may have to suffer even more. 

It seems clear to me the only fix is a change in leadership. I'm also convinced that will only happen if lower grade officers take the initiative, just as was done by Stauffenberg against Hitler.   The upper grade officers have been ensconced in N. Korea's military for many years and live a far better life than their follow N. Koreans.  They're tied to Kim and won't do a thing to rock the boat.  But the lower echelon must be able to see how terrible their people are suffering and can only see disaster when an unaccomplished psychotic like Kim is in charge and has made acquiring a nuclear arsenal the center piece of  his foreign policy for reasons that may be obscure at this time, but this article points out why these actions by N. Korea represent a serious threat to world peace.

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