Sunday, December 18, 2016

Observations From the Back Row: The World as I See It!

By Rich Kozlovich

No matter who was elected the United States would have to seriously reduce it's worldwide involvement. We're broke. We're coming to an end of the Bretton Woods era.  The most troublesome nations in the world have consistently been socialists or Muslim nations and for the most part the only thing they had to offer the rest of the world was oil and natural gas, with China being the most obvious exception.  But China's "economy" is a house of cards.

There is going to be a major worldwide economic downturn as a result of the continued - and continuing into the foreseeable future - low cost of oil and natural gas, and America has all the energy it needs - without Saudi Arabia and OPEC.  They're days of control are over and this will crush Venezuela, whose socialist government will cease to exist within the coming  year.  There is hope in other South American countries as so many of them are reforming their economic systems to reflect market conditions.  In short - they're trying to become capitalists within a socialist umbrella.  We'll see. 

With the combination of low energy prices and unending internal fighting in the Middle East American foreign policy will shift to a more stand offish position.  Russia may become more involved in Syria - which seems to worry way too many politicos and policy makers - but so what?  They've no economy that can sustain any long term threat to anyone, including Europe.  Europeans will have to develop the wherewithal to stand up on their hind legs and take complete control of NATO and call it something else, because America is going to have to walk away.  Furthermore, Russia - like Europe - is breeding itself out of existence. 

The more the Russians become involved in these Middle East quagmires the more they'll realize they're being sucked in to a never ending story with no happy ending, and with enormous economic costs they can't afford. We can expect to see Putin facing social unrest from a more and more disillusioned public.  At some point the goals and aims of the U.S. and Russia may even become convergent. 

At this point, if the world wants to do something in the Middle East it will have to do it without American support, or at the most, limited support, and for two reasons.  We're broke and for the most part - we don't care what happens to them, since this is largely a Muslim religious problem.  A problem they've brought unto themselves no one can solve. 

Europe's Russian problem is the least of Europe's worries.   Muslims are demanding Sharia Law and a separate Caliphate In The UK.   Isn't that what Europe, and the U.S., want to impose on Israel?  Let's get this - Muslim immigration will trigger civil war all over Europe, literally destroying Europe's economy for decades to come, leading the way for a change from multiculturalist socialist leaders to nationalist socialist leaders like Mussolini, and Russia will collapse economically as a result of not having a dynamic economic market on their borders, and although there will be a short time economic impact - we don't need either of them in the long term as America's a natural capital generator that's capable of being self sustaining.

Although I've been predicting the collapse of the EU for years, I predict it will be gone by 2020.  Italy's banking system is a mess, but so are the banking systems of the rest of Europe, and China's is a total fraud. 

China will not be far behind since their faux economy is based on open market agreements selling cheap products cheaply made, and their market will drop dramatically.  When that happens China's communist controller's concerns won't be in the South China Sea - it'll be at home.  Most Chinese don't consider the communist government to be legitimate, the majority of which are ethnic Han - the rest of China's ethnic groups hate the central government and the Han.  Unrest is coming there in a hard way.

Japan will exert more influence throughout the region, and Taiwan will become a tough nut to crack for China.  America is going to abandon the "One China" policy since we don't need China any longer to offset the Soviet Union, which is why China was brought into the Bretton Woods umbrella and why Kissinger and Nixon agreed to the One China philosophy. 

The U.S. will no longer be able to afford to be the world's economic dumping ground (consequences of Bretton Woods again) and Trump will demand renegotiation over NAFTA and any trade agreements with China and every other country in the world.  There will be an economic downturn here starting in 2017, but there's no way to stop that, as a result of the national debt and out of control spending, regulations and taxes, which many so-called conservatives in Congress like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan aren't hot to fix.  

Everything in Asia is shaky, and although the U.S. will try to support Japan and Australia, South Korea will have to step up to take care of their own defense.  We're going to bail out partially and then totally because of the expense. 

Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Islamic State will destabilize the Middle East beyond repair, and they'll be broke because they've always been broke, except for oil, drugs and Western handouts. 

They will revert to the Middle Age tribal societies they actually are.  Just because they have modern weaponry, transportation and communication doesn't change that.  And when the economic guillotine drops - they'll be the first to become little tribal warlord dominated societies.  America will be forced to walk away, and no amount of clabber about America being the leader the world needs will stop it.  The very ones who will scream about that action the most have been the worst allies.  They're on their own, and good riddance. 

India is going to revert to it's old socialist ways with the same results, and as for the predicted instability of the old Soviet Union states - they don't have anything and don't want much.  They may weather this far better than the states around them.

There are those predicting economic upturns in African countries that I don't see at all.  Africa is a mess politically, ethnically, economically, and medically.  The rate of insect borne disease, along with the rate of HIV and other communicable diseases, it  is terrible.  The water is unfit to drink in many areas, and transportation is not conducive to good economic growth.    South Africa was a thriving economic engine, but now it's an economic and social mess needing money from the IMF.   If South Africa can't be viable, why would we believe the rest of Africa can?

 

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