China Reset

By Rich Kozlovich

Recently in Canada's National Post Clive Hamilton posted the article, Time for a 'China reset,' before it's too late saying:

Under the iron rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the nation from which the coronavirus originated has been using the pandemic to exploit new opportunities to advance its power and influence. Distracted by the crisis at hand, we are letting it happen. Chinese and Indian troops are engaged in a face-off along their disputed border.....

China has further boosted its naval presence in the South China Sea, where in recent years it has built military facilities on islands and coral outcrops contrary to international law. It has driven Filipino fishermen off traditional fishing grounds and stopped Vietnam from exploring for oil, while making incursions into waters close to Japan. All the while, the ever-nervous......

Taiwan waits and wonders if its giant neighbour will try to take back control of the island by force. Last month, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne proposed an independent global inquiry into the origin of the coronavirus outbreak........

but Beijing angrily rebuked Australia for its impertinence, accusing it of being a “U.S. lackey.” China’s ambassador in Canberra upped the ante by threatening a Chinese boycott of Australian exports........announcing an 80 per cent tariff on barley imports and a ban on a large slice of beef sales, while also threatening coal imports.

China, much like the Soviet Union, has practiced, and continues to practice masquerade diplomacy.  The Soviets made outrageous claims about their military capabilities and the western intelligence agencies believed them.  It was all a lie, but it triggered massive defense buildups in the west, especially the U.S., under Ronald Reagan.  And they weren't ready for the consequences of their masquerade. While the left laughed and ridiculed Reagan’s Star Wars Initiative, that was the final straw that did the Soviet Union in.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union a Russian General came to America and was asked why he was here.  He said he came to visit the author of perestroika and glasnost.  Confused, he was asked who that was.  He said he was here to see Ronald Reagan.

The Soviet Union had sacrificed its internal economic well being to massive military spending and the USSR was broke at that point.  Since communism is incapable of creating a vibrant economic system of capital generation, they were at the end of their rope economically and militarily.  The USSR wasn’t defeated by might, it was defeated with capitalist dollars that created might that was never directly used against them by a nation that actually is a natural capital generator.  The United States, and our system of capitalism. 

During the first Iraq war the Russians learned just how incapable their military might was.  The entire Iraqi military system was based on Soviet military equipment and strategic philosophy.  The Soviets were stunned at how easily the U.S. cut right through that.  It was touted how Iraq had the fourth largest army in the world, but once the U.S. started military action, Iraq was defeated by the U.S. in less than two months.

The same is true with China.  They make big claims, big threats, they beat up on neighbors and they’ve now attacked India.  They throw their citizens into concentration camps, they violate international treaties, Hong Kong being just one of them.  

That little stunt with India is a replay of the 1962 Sino-Indian War, and is nothing more than an object lesson war.  India was shocked in 1962 and largely unprepared.  They were a socialist nation and considered the Chinese communist government allies.  But they learned otherwise then, and it appears they're now on top of it this time. This little stunt will backfire on China, especially since this little stunt will fail, they're going to have to back down, and they'll be exposed for the paper tiger they really are. 

China, in spite of the massive size of its army is incapable of extending its power much beyond its borders, and in point of fact, has never, in modern times, actually fought a real war.  WWII was fought more like a civil war than a real war.  First against the Japanese while fighting the Communists, then both against the Japanese, and then against each other once again. 

That’s not the same as sending massive army groups into another country, even Formosa, requiring massive logistical support.  They're not logistically equipped or capable of that, even for an attack on Formosa without devastating results for their invasion fleet and landing parties.  Their navy is ill equipped to take on such a task, their army is ill trained for such a task, and the technology they’ve used in their new aircraft carriers is 25 year old Russian technology, and we’ve seen how well that’s worked for the Russians.  And their senior military officers have no experience for such a task.  Once again, they’re trained in masquerade, intimidation and object lesson wars which never last long. 

They’re not in a position to impose economic sanctions on anyone.  That will backfire on them in a short time as their economic growth and stability is now, and has always been, based on exports.   

This is a bluff, and as for their economy becoming the biggest in the world soon:  That’s not going to happen.  They can’t pay their national debt, they’re incapable of creating advanced military technology without stealing it, they’re incapable creating an internal market (outside the major cities along their Eastern coastal regions the rest of the nation is dirt poor) that will generate the massive capital needed to do what they claim they’re going to do, and while they’re capable of feeding themselves, they’re incapable of fueling themselves.  Furthermore, since their “capitalist” concept was based on full employment and not profitability, at some point they’re not going to be able to pay their bills, and while they have huge coal reserves, they have no oil.

Finally, when push comes to shove, they’re not going to be dealing with a snowflake like Trudeau.  They’re going to have to face Trump.  That’s where the rubber really meets the road, and their tires are all worn out. 

Just like the Russians.