Tuesday, August 8, 2017

N. Korean Crisis: Will This Lead to WWIII?

By Rich Kozlovich

On August 8, 2017 Gage Cohen published an article entitled, President Trump: North Korea ‘Will Be Met with Fire and Fury’ saying:
On Tuesday afternoon, after it was reported that North Korea has successfully created nuclear warheads small enough to fit inside its ballistic missiles, President Donald Trump warned that if Kim Jong Un’s government makes more threats towards the United States, they “will be met with fire and fury.”  
“North Korea best not make anymore threats to the United States, they will be met with fire and fury, like the world has never seen".
Okay, that's impressive, but what's it mean? 

As I've watched this develop I keep coming back to the one singular force responsible for this problem - the Clintons - and the second dumbest President of the United States - Jimmy Carter.  It was the Clintons who gave Korea the technology to get to where they are now, and for an agreement they violated on day one.  A deal similar to what the dumbest President of the United States gave Iran.

So what now? Here's the way I see it.

I. Will Kim actually use a nuclear device on anyone?
  • The problem is N. Korea is so isolated it's hard to fathom the quality of his character. We know he's a murderous little monster, even killing his own family members, so we know he's a murderous psychopath, but does that make him a stupid murderous psychopath?  (more on that later) Some are claiming he's not that stupid, but no one knows for sure.  But frankly, I think he is.
II. If he's not willing to use a nuclear devise on someone why did he spend so much to create a nuclear arsenal and what are his goals.
  • No one really knows, but I think his ego is so out of control he may think he can intimidate his neighbors and the U.S. to stay out of Korean peninsula politics.  I think he may believe he can then force S. Korea into unifying under his rule.
III. If he does use a nuclear device what will the U.S. do?
  • It's my belief the U.S. will eliminate N. Korea because they would represent a real threat to the western U.S. The nation is a massive military complex with underground facilities, but if they use those facilities they become exposed. With satellite confirmation every piece of artillery, every bunker and every nuclear facility can be wiped out in days. If they use a nuclear device I think the U.S. will also.  It wouldn't take much destruction to completely bring the country down, along with any idea that N. Korea is a modern nation. It isn't! The picture below shows even Eastern Russia is more advanced that N. Korea. There's only one major light source shown here - and that's the capital. This would be an unmistakable message to Iran, the terrorists, China, Russia and the so-called free world, one they may need since Iran will soon be where N. Korea is now.   But Kim has to use a nuclear device first for this to happen.

Related image

IV.  Are there any internal N. Korean politics that can stop this?
  • As I said he murdered his own family members and I think the reason isn't because he feared being generally overthrown.  He feared being overthrown for doing what he's doing now.  His actions were done with a long term vision.  A vision he may have shared with his father because he clearly had this agenda in mind from the beginning.  He had to eliminate anyone with any potential to override his megalomania  thus eliminating any voices of reason or dissent.  That in my opinion leaves only the military, and not the senior military personnel.  The younger members at the next level down is where any overthrow would have to come from. Is that possible?  No one has any idea, and no one has connections in N. Korea to tell them as far as has been published, but who knows, except there's a possibility either China or Russia could have access to personnel in N. Korea who they would support in secret.  More on that later. 
V.  What will the world's response if the U.S. uses a nuclear device on N. Korea?
  • The world's left will rant, scream, claim racism and demand Trump be prosecuted for crimes against humanity, but here's the real truth.  The world's nations need the U.S. After the heat of passion blows over the cool breeze of economics will take effect.  We don't need them - they need us.  They'll accept it, and I think privately - they'll be glad. Even China and Russia recognize they don't want or need a nut case loose cannon like Kim upsetting the world's economy.  Especially since he's at their back door.  As for what the they think in Europe, Africa and South America?  Who cares?  They need us - we don't need them.   And what about the U.N.?  A really big "who cares" for them. 
VI.  What military options are available to N. Korea?
  • They have no blue water navy, and according and to the Department of Defense, in 2014 their navy has "60,000 personnel, 70 submarines, 420 gun boats, 260 amphibious landing craft, 30 mine warfare vessels, and 30 support ships."  Their Navy is positioned independently on both sides of N. Korea without any ability to support each other.
  • Their air force is large but a "nearly completely obsolete air force" consisting of "110,000 members", with "940 aircraft of different types; mostly of old Soviet and Chinese origin."  "The only aircraft Pyongyang possesses that might marginally threaten American air power are its small fleet of Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrums. “They supposedly have up to 40 MiG-29s, but I’m not sure how many of them are still airworthy but some surely are.”   “Pilot training is limited and never exceeds 20 flight hours per."  It's clear they have no real long range capability and make no mistake about this - in any engagement with the U.S. they will have to face the finest aviators in the world - U.S. Navy aviators.  The Top Gun flyers!  And just as Saddam Hussein's pilots eventually gave up and flew to Iran to escape -  they'll go down in flames or fly into China. 
  • They have a very large ground to air defense system throughout the country but mostly old Soviet systems, with some systems that are supposedly very capable.  However, doesn't this remind you of the kind of defense system used by Saddam Hussein?  One the Americans cut through like a hot knife through butter.  Building or buying advanced systems is enormously expensive, but maintaining them is also shockingly expensive, and that's not a one time expense.  That expense keeps on climbing year after year.  They're not a capital generating nation and I don't think they're capable of properly maintaining a fraction of what they have, and anything they're producing themselves is done with technology that's 20 to 40 years old. 
  • Their army is massive with over a million men serving, and in a country that small - that's a commitment that can't be maintained under stress for very long, and they've not fought a real war for over 60 years.  Their command and control system clearly only goes one way - from the top down - with Kim as the Supreme Commander, a man with no viable training for the job.  Since it's clear their system of government has never allowed too much independent thinking or action in the lower ranks, this is a sure system for failure.  They're allegedly the fourth largest army in the world, but that was the spot Saddam Hussein's army once held. 
Well, that's how I see it, but there's no way of knowing what will happen or when.  However, history has shown upstarts like this guy are tolerated just so long as their not stepping on someone else's parade.  When their ego gets so out of control they think they can intimidate the big boys on the block - someone will eventually be forced to smack them - hard. 

Will that start a WWIII? No. He's a fly that needs swatted and neither Russia or China want to see any action expanded, as long as their territory isn't impacted - and I believe either or both of them can be bought off with some kind of "favored nation" economic agreement.  Both Putin and  Xi Jinping are far more worried about keeping their economy functioning as best as can be done with their incompetent control in order to stay in power than any concerns they may harbor about keeping Kim safe or in power. 

Furthermore, if North Korea ceased to exist and they became a unified  nation under control of South Korea a couple of things would happen.  It wouldn't be long before the people of North Korea fell in love with the new government because they wouldn't have to keep starving to death, and Korea, China and Russia would benefit economically from this new capital generating nation.  This would open markets for all three because they would not only  trade across the waters, they could trade and transport products directly overland to a new consumer market that didn't exist under Kim.

As I think of this - Russia and China may privately want Kim gone.

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