Friday, April 14, 2017

Turkish referendum polls show 'Yes' vote above 51 percent

World News | Thu Apr 13, 2017

A narrow majority of Turks will vote "Yes" in Sunday's referendum on changing the constitution to grant President Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers, two opinion polls showed on Thursday.

The April 16 vote will decide on the biggest change in Turkey's system of governance since the modern republic's foundation almost a century ago, potentially replacing its parliamentary system with an executive presidency.  Polling company Konda said the number of "yes" voters stood at 51.5 percent, but said its survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percent.......To Read More.....

My Take - Maybe this poll is meaningful, I don't know, but as a general rule - I give polls short shrift just as a matter of personal philosophy, but in a situation like this - I give this no 'shrift' at all because this is not a country where expressing opinions contrary to the opinions of the ruling class is treated well.  Having said that - I think it's important to become aware of how important Turkey may become in the very near future. 

 First, they're playing the long game.  Turkey's demography is far better than that of Russia, their only real threat in their part of the world, and a power  that may end up not even being a country in twenty years.  They've a very competent military, and could give the Russians all they could handle,  they're not desperate for energy sources, the neighboring countries are weak militarily and economically, their Southern neighbors are a military concern but only via terrorists, because Syria and Lebanon are turning into city states. 

The Turks are different from all other Muslim dominated countries - they're amazingly malleable and one of the reason for this may be Turkey under the Ottoman Empire practiced a form of Islam that was far from strict, and after the Empire fell they made Turkey a secular country.  But Turkey is working to expand their influence in competition with Iran and must be recognized as a force to be reckoned with. 

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